2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#561 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:37 pm

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#562 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:04 am

EURO and GFS becoming more robust on another Philippine and South China Sea system.

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GFS has a rapidly developing Haikui over the Philippines and makes landfall over Oriental Mindoro. It then passes it very close to Manila.

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Peak

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#563 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:13 am

These darn south china sea systems delay the monsoon over the top end of oz.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#564 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:35 am

NWS talks about the potential.
A weak monsoon trough extends through the region, with the trough
axis south of all 3 locations and heavy showers and thunderstorms
even farther south. Models show weak circulations passing through the
area along the monsoon trough throughout the next week or so. None of
the models show significant development, but showers will increase at
times as the circulations pass by. Model consensus points to more
showers at Yap and Koror around early to mid week as a circulation
passes near Koror. Have increased showers at Yap since convection
will likely be more widespread there due to the increased low-level
convergence with the stronger trades to the north. With the
circulation expected to pass near or north of Koror, showers will be
less widespread, so have just kept isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Should models begin dropping the circulation south,
the showers near Yap will also be more prone to spread into the Koror
area.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#565 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:23 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#566 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:57 am

Oh boy

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#567 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:18 pm

Still has it... And what bogggles me is that this is merely 84 hrs, not long-range

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ECMWF, kinda on board

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#568 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:40 pm

The incipient system might be this area of convection located south of Guam. It looks good atm.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#569 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:55 am

GFS has a strong TS in 66-72 hrs. This is the tenth consecutive run and for the past five, they have been a strong TS unlike a weaker one shown before

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#570 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:10 am

So much energy down there with a prominent defined circulation on the TPW wrapping tighter.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#571 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:24 am

12Z EURO had a typhoon for grieving Vietnam almost in the same spot where Damrey made landfall possibly as a typhoon. 00Z EURO keeps it further away from them. Peaks it at 985 mb and dissipates it south of Hainan Island.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#572 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:32 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS has a strong TS in 66-72 hrs. This is the tenth consecutive run and for the past five, they have been a strong TS unlike a weaker one shown before



Yeah latest one shows an intensifying system crossing over the Philippines. Not surprising since the P.I is mostly islands separated by bodies of water.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#573 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:37 am

Another one to contend with? Very long range GFS has a historic Bopha like system from 2012.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#574 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:34 am

euro6208 wrote:Yeah latest one shows an intensifying system crossing over the Philippines. Not surprising since the P.I is mostly islands separated by bodies of water.

It seems to be more conducive due to the lack of shear and increasing moisture and outflow. Should be an invest by now

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#575 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:38 am

Shear around the philippines has been really low. Good thing someone mentioned that. I thought it was just my imagination.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#576 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:50 am

Big shift to the west. Possible, not major, storm surge over Tacloban if this pans out. Passes south of Tacloban as a strong TS and passes to my north as a category 1 perhaps...

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Conditions are looking ripe and conducive for cyclogenesis. High SSTs and OHC!

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#577 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:59 pm

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GFS 7 days out. GFS has consistently predicted development of an LPA to the east of the PIs, tracking it westwards across northern Luzon towards Hainan island
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#578 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:29 am

EURO still robust on this strengthening in the SCS with a strike on Hainan. Same with GFS but it weakens it on landfall.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#579 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:51 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#580 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:51 am

It's weird. No mention at all. This should at least be designated as an invest.

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