2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#601 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:23 pm

No model support at this time but more rains in store for the islands.

Eastern Micronesia...
A weak tropical disturbance centered southwest of Chuuk near 3N146E
is the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms in a broad area
from southeast of Yap to south of Chuuk. A surface trough stretches
east-northeastward from the disturbance, passing south of Chuuk and
Pohnpei, to near Kosrae and Majuro. Models show this trough slowly
weakening as it moves west with showers and thunderstorms subsiding
later today and overnight along the trough. Isolated thunderstorms
and periods of scattered showers will persist across most locations
from Chuuk to Majuro today with drier weather expected by Saturday.
Latest satellite animation shows heaviest weather has moved west of
Majuro and just north of Kosrae, but locally heavy rainfall is seen
over Pohnpei this morning and will continue at least through midday
today. Showers and thunderstorms will move in over Chuuk Lagoon by
daybreak. Looking ahead, a relatively drier pattern this weekend
could come to an end by Sunday night as a wetter pattern reemerges
across the region on Monday and Tuesday with increased convergence.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Koror and Yap sit in between a tropical disturbance centered near
the southern Philippines and another weaker disturbance southeast
of Yap. Mid and upper-level cloudiness is seen over both Yap and
Koror, but recent IR satellite images shows convection is winding
down by sunrise. Expect weather conditions to slowly improve this
afternoon and overnight with moderate east-northeast trade winds
at least through Saturday. The next disturbance will approach by
Sunday and bring more convection to the region Sunday. Models do
keep much of this just south of Yap, so we will keep a close eye
on this. As for the disturbance southeast of Yap, models show no
significant development the next couple days as it heads west and
generally south of Koror.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#602 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:55 am

GFS drops any system near Guam but still indicates some sort of tropical or subtropical system further east near the dateline.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#603 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:55 am

Image

Drops the dateline system and has another Philippine TC. Past few runs had a powerful typhoon making landfall over the Visayas.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#604 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:37 am

GFS's been crazy the last 2 days. Been showing twins developing around Guam but varies in strength and location.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#605 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:39 am

EURO for the past couple runs also hinting on lowering pressures around the area where the 2nd system develops.

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#606 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:45 pm

In the short term, nothing much impressive in the models, but there's some hints the monsoon may try to develop in the far SW. The past several weeks we've seen weak circulations passing through, but nothing substantial. The season's not over yet, historically, Dec has produced some of the more notorious TCs


Image

Already starting to flare down there with another MJO expected to pass through.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#607 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:43 am

What a horrible season this is turning out to be for Vietnam. 00Z GFS has ANOTHER TC impacting the country after hitting the Philippines and it's capital.

981mb.

Image

985mb for Vietnam.

Image

Also noticed that strengthening system south of Guam...
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#608 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:24 pm

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#609 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:55 pm

Even stronger and much further south

Image

Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#610 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:17 pm

Seeing some very low shear around the area where this will eventually develop.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#611 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 5:28 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#612 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 5:58 am

Image

Very erratic. That strong system it was developing is south of Vietnam and barely a TC. It has another right behind it. Next runs should be interesting.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#613 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:45 pm

Still has that strong system near the PH in the very long range
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#614 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:55 am

The GFS sensing some type of outbreak occurring with 2 or 3 TC developing and impacting the Philippines and again Vietnam. Likely MJO related as the models try to develop multiple systems in the Indian Ocean at the same time. The WPAC still wants to join the party.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#615 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:21 am

A low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days.
The global models(GFS, ECWMF, CMC, NAVGEM) indicate that this LPA will further organize and strengthen once it enters the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal.
(NIO TC season thread)


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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#616 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:52 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:A low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days.
The global models(GFS, ECWMF, CMC, NAVGEM) indicate that this LPA will further organize and strengthen once it enters the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal.
(NIO TC season thread)

INVEST 93W has been designated between Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#617 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:36 am

Image

The WPAC as usual.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#618 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:42 am

Impressive MJO and Kelvin Wave moving through.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#619 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:04 am

Models runs have been crazy GFS wise.

EURO shows a struggling system in the Philippine Sea during week 1.

Image

The GFS on the other hand still has twins developing with the second forming near the equator. Philippines and Guam hit?

00Z had a direct fujiwhara with the latter also making it to the P.I.

Image

06Z has less of an interaction with the first system sprawling and the second peaks it at 930's.

Image
Image
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#620 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:28 am

94W THREAD

For first system southeast of Guam.
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