2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

BANYAN

[euro6208]

Latest EURO drops any development during the next 5 days. GFS still enthusiastic about the 2 TC's developing. The first one hits Luzon and strikes Taiwan while the eastern typhoon bottoms out at 963mb moving southeast.

[euro6208]

CFS on the continued lowering pressures last week of August and into September and very wet WPAC probrably indicated of TC tracks.

[euro6208]

GFS continues with the 2 tropical cyclones. It has the first system developing in 156 hours and making landfall over Luzon and into China. The second system southeast of Okinawa but still developing. Previous runs had the first system rapidly intensifying and making a phenomenal landfall in Taiwan or China. Let's see what future runs show.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

GFS continues with the 2 tropical cyclones. It has the first system developing in 156 hours and making landfall over Luzon and into China. The second system southeast of Okinawa but still developing. Previous runs had the first system rapidly intensifying and making a phenomenal landfall in Taiwan or China. Let's see what future runs show.

These could be named either Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar and/or Guchol (or even Hato!) because some of the models like Euro and GFS tries to develop three potential TC's all north of 30 degrees N. The first one would be likely to develop on Yellow Sea and could be named "Hato", hopefully if unlikely. The second one would develop southeast of Tokyo and might take the name Pakhar (or Hato if Yellow Sea TC didn't become named storm), but i doubt it would be named anyway. If it did, well that's Pakhar/Hato as i said. The third one would likely develop in Sea of Japan (finally... Euro insist's on that region would finally realized, but weeks late!) or Yellow Sea (if it was GFS). This one would be very likely to be named by JMA here, because i've seen the models on it and it was the most intense one of the three. It would take the name Sanvu if Hato and Pakhar is taken (the most unlikely), Pakhar if only Hato is taken and if it's not any of these then this will be Hato.

[1900hurricane]

GFS continues with the 2 tropical cyclones. It has the first system developing in 156 hours and making landfall over Luzon and into China. The second system southeast of Okinawa but still developing. Previous runs had the first system rapidly intensifying and making a phenomenal landfall in Taiwan or China. Let's see what future runs show.

These could be named either Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar and/or Guchol (or even Hato!) because some of the models like Euro and GFS tries to develop three potential TC's all north of 30 degrees N. The first one would be likely to develop on Yellow Sea and could be named "Hato", hopefully if unlikely. The second one would develop southeast of Tokyo and might take the name Pakhar (or Hato if Yellow Sea TC didn't become named storm), but i doubt it would be named anyway. If it did, well that's Pakhar/Hato as i said. The third one would likely develop in Sea of Japan (finally... Euro insist's on that region would finally realized, but weeks late!) or Yellow Sea (if it was GFS). This one would be very likely to be named by JMA here, because i've seen the models on it and it was the most intense one of the three. It would take the name Sanvu if Hato and Pakhar is taken (the most unlikely), Pakhar if only Hato is taken and if it's not any of these then this will be Hato.

Most of these appear to be extratropical systems. When looking at 500 mb, most of the lows have the height contours crossing over the top of them and appear to be associated with mid latitude troughs. These are signs of a baroclinic system, rather than a barotropic one.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS drops the second system but develops a very intense typhoon. Past few model runs had it hitting the Philippines or passing between Taiwan and Luzon and into China. It's on and off from a Cat 5 to a 978 mb typhoon in between.

Here is EURO forecasting a weak TS at around the same timeframe. Overzealous GFS?

[euro6208]

NAVGEM with a weak TS over Taiwan and CMC with a strengthening typhoon.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I just put a new blog up. In it, I discuss the prospects of some monsoon trough activity over the coming week.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 17

[euro6208]

Yeah that area west of us has gotten the model's attention. All of the global models, JMA, NAVGEM, CMC, GFS, and EURO develops it with varying strength and location.

EURO with Hato nailing Hong Kong.

[euro6208]

18Z GFS similiar to EURO but very weak. Previous runs had a TS or even a TY for Taiwan/China.

[euro6208]

EURO also has Pakhar developing right behind Hato. GFS also has the feature but weak.

GFS long range has activity come September.

[euro6208]

Latest 00Z GFS also develops this into a typhoon and Taiwan all over again. This is what the EURO is showing to become Pakhar. It will be interesting to see what EURO says. GFS still gilch on Hato to be...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Gotcha! Are you surprised?! There's new invest, near where Banyan's origins were located. That's Invest 93W! On CMC, this is forecast to survive long enough to see itself as a new storm under the name "Sanvu" (or Guchol, but Yellow Sea storm seems will never ever be named). I don't know for another models right now, but i think CMC might be right.

[doomhaMwx]

Gotcha! Are you surprised?! There's new invest, near where Banyan's origins were located. That's Invest 93W! On CMC, this is forecast to survive long enough to see itself as a new storm under the name "Sanvu" (or Guchol, but Yellow Sea storm seems will never ever be named). I don't know for another models right now, but i think CMC might be right.

Invest 93W is nowhere near Banyan originated...
Next name's "Hato" by the way...

[euro6208]

Here is Pakhar. Maybe another one two punch this time for China?