2017 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

COMS visible satellite image just before sunset today(July 27th) of the developing Invest 92W and Tropical Cyclones Nesat and Noru... What's left of Tropical Storm Kulap is also found just to the SW of Typhoon Noru...

On a side note, can you also see the smoke/smog originating from eastern China? It's fairly noticeable on this image...


Image date/time: 07-27-2017 8:00am UTC

The smoke/smog is well-depicted on Himawari-8 True Color imagery... Image also from 08z today...

Majority of it came from dust that originates from the Gobi Desert in Mongolia, China's contribution are pollutants and other particles.

[euro6208]

872
FXPQ60 PGUM 290837
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
630 PM ChST Sat Jul 29 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Southwest wind and isolated showers are occurring across the
Marianas with thunderstorms north and west.

&&

.Discussion...
Guidance still shows increased moisture across the marianas
tonight into Sunday and there is at least some decent upward
motion, especially for Saipan and Tinian on Sunday. With
increasing southwesterly flow across the area, additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible. The changes to the
forecast mainly involved adding thunderstorms and increasing wind
a bit. Moisture and vertical velocity decrease Sunday evening, so
if the guidance is correct, we will return to a pattern of more
isolated showers. By midweek wind is forecast to increase further
as monsoon flow increases.

&&

.Marine...
Latest observations from the buoys range from 4 to 6 feet combined
seas. A gradual increase in seas is expected into next week, but
guidance is still struggling with just when and how high seas will
get. As Typhoon Noru remains well north of the area, it will
continue to churn the seas and create swells. Guidance continues
to indicate that some of those swells will make it to the
Marianas, but again is having difficulty with extent and timing.
Large swell still looks possible especially on north facing reefs
by midweek, if not sooner, which could create hazardous seas.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An upper-level low continues to slowly track westward to the north
of Kosrae. This low is interacting with low-level convergence to
generate scattered showers over Kosrae and Pohnpei. The low will
move west-southwestward over the next couple of days and gradually
weaken. Showers will persist through tonight at Kosrae and through
Sunday night at Pohnpei. As the low approaches Chuuk, the showers
that remain will be south of Weno, with fair conditions continuing
there through most of next week. The eastern edge of the convergence
band will remain near Majuro, maintaining a risk of thunderstorms
through tonight. Otherwise, weak disturbances and convergence will
maintain an unsettled pattern through the beginning of next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Converging southwest monsoonal winds brought scattered showers to
Koror this afternoon. These showers will continue over Palau through
tonight before decreasing early Sunday morning. An overall unsettled
pattern is then expected to continue at both Yap and Koror through
the next few days, with short periods of scattered showers possible.
Gentle to moderate monsoon winds will continue over both locations
through the week.

Combined seas will increase by 2 to 3 feet as a larger swell moves
in from the north, generated by Typhoon Noru.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/Kleeschulte

[1900hurricane]

The reverse-oriented monsoon trough is getting more defined.

[euro6208]

EURO has another high latitude typhoon east of Noru.

[euro6208]

GFS also has this typhoon and looks to do a fujiwhara with Noru. Crazy.

[euro6208]

After all the mess is gone, GFS at long range has a menacing looking system east of the Marianas.

[1900hurricane]

Just posted a new blog entry. Unsurprisingly, I mostly discuss Noru in this one.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 30, 2017

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably tag the area in the monsoon trough east of Noru as a new invest (very rough 25ºN, 155ºE). It looks like a disturbance is trying to consolidate in there.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/891770042827677696

[euro6208]

I'd probably tag the area in the monsoon trough east of Noru as a new invest (very rough 25ºN, 155ºE). It looks like a disturbance is trying to consolidate in there.

GFS also has this typhoon and looks to do a fujiwhara with Noru. Crazy.

Yup looks like this is what the global models are developing but with less interaction now.

[euro6208]

After all the mess is gone, GFS at long range has a menacing looking system east of the Marianas.

Dropped but GFS is hinting on a new typhoon hitting Western Japan this time.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/891770042827677696

Neat that it will start next month but sucks that it's only for systems threatening Japan. How about the mighty Super Typhoons near the P.I or Marianas? Dropsondes for around the typhoon only but no real eye penetration?

Really sad. Just imagine how many records would be broken worldwide as has been the case ever since.

[euro6208]

97W THREAD

Pre-Nalgae.

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

Is that huge blob east of PI invest-worthy? I thought it would dissipate as it detaches from the tail of TY Noru, but convection is still persistent.

[1900hurricane]

Is that huge blob east of PI invest-worthy? I thought it would dissipate as it detaches from the tail of TY Noru, but convection is still persistent.

I'd probably tag it. Visible imagery does appear to show some sort of developing circulation on the monsoon trough, on the east side of the convective complex. It may not amount to anything, but that's how it is with any number of invests.

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list.

Banyan
Hato
Pakhar
Sanvu
Mawar

[euro6208]

More about the planned recon.

It's interesting it says they will drop dropsondes into the eye. What a change.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/07/31/national/nagoya-university-team-use-aircraft-gauge-potency-supertyphoons/#.WYHD2McjGHs

[1900hurricane]

My new blog post is now up!

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 2, 2017

[euro6208]

The models keep the basin relatively quiet mostly throughout the month but does show lowering pressures beginning in the last days of this month and into September.