2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Well here we go. JTWC just upgraded 91W to 25W.
Slow ACE wise but active. The WPAC never sleeps.
25W THREAD
Slow ACE wise but active. The WPAC never sleeps.
25W THREAD
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS saying 4 more TC. Three to follow Lan and another long range with almost the same track as Lan.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS showing a powerful repeat of Typhoon Sarah over the SCS; Sarah was pulled to the east by Super Typhoon Tip and executed an erratic track due to weak steering currents.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS showing a powerful repeat of Typhoon Sarah over the SCS; Sarah was pulled to the east by Super Typhoon Tip and executed an erratic track due to weak steering currents.
Looks like the latest model runs have backed off from this or is not strong as earlier runs. EURO still doesn't do anything with it and GFS is much much weaker but still shows a significant TC impacting the P.I. NAVGEM and CMC are robust.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
I think that many assume August and September to be the 'big' months in the NHem, but with the WPac tending to produce lots of intense and historic typhoons in October - not to mention that EVERY NHem basin except the CPac had its most intense known storm during the month - I think that October is perhaps king when it comes to really impressive storms. What it may lack in overall storm count it makes up for in intensity and destructiveness, in many years.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Closing in on 2013. Philippines at Storm # 16, 3 names behind 4 years prior. Similar to that year, we are seeing a significant heightening of tropical cyclone activity due to an MJO
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
This MJO is just off the charts.
Accompanying this is a very strong Kelvin Wave.
Accompanying this is a very strong Kelvin Wave.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
This monsoon trough/gyre really dampering more stronger cyclones to develop with Lan taking it's time to develop and weak cyclones developing around it's periphery.
EURO has this coming from the CPAC and GFS is a buzz quiet. Same with NAVGEM.
EURO has this coming from the CPAC and GFS is a buzz quiet. Same with NAVGEM.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Some of the models still has a crossover from the CPAC. All of them including the EURO has very little development before dissipating.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Well no more crossover. The models are still indicating more development down the road. GFS forecast another system to develop in front of our current 27W. Keeps it weak though. EURO likes it.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
My gut tells me something big about November and December for the Philippines.... Analogs are 1984 and 2013. A streak of no super typhoons (or full of weak systems) was observed during the peak and look what we saw, Agnes and Haiyan respectively.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Well no more crossover. The models are still indicating more development down the road. GFS forecast another system to develop in front of our current 27W. Keeps it weak though. EURO likes it.
Bummer.
The GFS drops it and EURO.
GFS hinting on another Philippine system. Previous runs had a low latitude typhoon but is weaker on this run.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Here are the past 8 GFS runs at fantasy land territory (384 hrs)
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
GFS really persistent on long range - might be a west runner. It's still very early to put any weight on the solution but it is indeed intriguing.
As of this date, all landfalling systems in the Philippines this year were just TD or TS strength.
Last time the Philippines didn't experience a Typhoon landfall within a single year was either in 2005 (JMA -10min MSW) or 2002 (JTWC - 1min MSW)
As of this date, all landfalling systems in the Philippines this year were just TD or TS strength.
Last time the Philippines didn't experience a Typhoon landfall within a single year was either in 2005 (JMA -10min MSW) or 2002 (JTWC - 1min MSW)
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:GFS really persistent on long range - might be a west runner. It's still very early to put any weight on the solution but it is indeed intriguing.
As of this date, all landfalling systems in the Philippines this year were just TD or TS strength.
Last time the Philippines didn't experience a Typhoon landfall within a single year was either in 2005 (JMA -10min MSW) or 2002 (JTWC - 1min MSW)
What were the names of the two?
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Interesting.
EURO has Damrey making landfall in extreme Southeast Asia, first southern Vietnam and into Thailand.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
That feature has been appearing on ECMWF for quite some time now... GFS does not show it yet , while CMC has development much quicker (as always) than ECMWF... Looks like it has a potential to move into the NIO basin as well... Nothing's certain yet at this time, but definitely something to keep an eye on, as most of the powerful (Category 4's and 5's) October-November cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have originated from this area—southern SCS, Gulf of Thailand, and Andaman Sea...
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