2017 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#641 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:24 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#642 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:50 am

GFS has a triple threat for Vietnam. One from a SCS system which has support from multiple models...The system south of Guam...And another originating near the dateline.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#643 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:16 am

A LPA may form in the vicinity of Palau and Yap islands within the next 24/48hrs. The global models(GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM) indicate the possibility of gradual organization and strengthening over the Philippine Sea this coming week. At the moment, uncertainty exists on the extent of development and with regards to its track.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#644 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:19 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#645 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:56 am

When will this season ever end? 174 hours out...Past runs showed a Mindanao landfall.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#646 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:15 pm

ECMWF have a strong Typhoon slamming the Mindanao/Visayas area while GFS recurve future 97W.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#647 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:34 am

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#648 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:45 am

97W THREAD

Up for monster storm.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#649 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:13 am

Less than halfway through the end of the season, the models are still insisting on more development.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#650 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:19 pm

If season ends now, 2017 would be Philippines' 1st typhoon free year since 2005 (10 min)
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#651 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:31 pm

GFS has another TS in just 198 hours...Impacts Palau and weakening before reaching the P.I.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#652 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:56 am

GFS takes the TS to Guam on Christmas day and Luzon. Development in 120 hours out.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#653 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:42 am

NWS starting to notice.

Little change in the forecast as the monsoon trough stays
well to the south of the Marianas. Couple of trade-wind surges
are visible upstream in the satellite imagery but are somewhat
difficult to time. Expect some brief periods of showers and
moderate to fresh winds with each arrival. Models have toned down
the development of the weak circulation south of Kosrae and just
north of the equator near 165E, but it still bares watching just
in case it gains more latitude than what is expected.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#654 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:11 am

GFS spins this up pretty quickly. Full blown TS in just 24 hours.

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Strikes Pohnpei.


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Christmas day passing south of Guam.


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Peak.

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Recurves.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#655 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:15 am

It's literally straggling the equator.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#656 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:25 am

Looks like it's spinning a bit now - painfully close to equator.


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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#657 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:08 pm

ASCAT does show a weak circulation embedded in a near equatorial trough. It's not suddenly becoming a tropical storm 24 hours from now like the GFS keeps insisting, but it might be invest worthy.

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#658 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:35 pm

Looks like the GFS is alone with this one, although the latest Euro run recognizes this area and develops it somehow into a disturbance. I don't know, GFS is telling me not to let my guard down but after all the sub-900s typhoon scare recently, I am not holding my breath.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#659 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:10 am

And the GFS changes big time

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Re: 2017 WPAC Season

#660 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:01 am

NWS discounting GFS for now.
Little change in the forecast as the Marianas are dominated by
moderate to fresh trade-wind flow in high pressure. A couple of
surges can be seen upstream, similar to today`s passage with the next
one pass through Friday night. GFS model suggest winds, especially
in the northern portion of our AOR...in the vicinity of Saipan and
Tinian may temporarily reach 25 knots which would result in a short
term small craft advisory for them. This will be more clear tomorrow
as to the timing and intensity of this event. Completely disregarded
the GFS run for the circulation southeast of Kosrae as it is the only
model we have that predicts any development...and if past record is
any indication...it `ain`t` going to happen.
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