2016-2017 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

[Calasanjy]

Just an amateur opinion, but here are my thoughts on potential tropical cyclones for the next week:

05P/Alfred - Gulf of Carpentaria - 80% chance of development. Guess for maximum intensity - 50 knots. Quick development and landfall in Northern Australia, preventing further intensification. However, it may eventually reemerge over water off Western Australia but I do not feel comfortable providing a potential for redevelopment or maximum intensity estimate for such an eventuality.

06S/Dineo - Mozambique Channel - 50% chance of development. Guess for maximum intensity - 60 knots. Landfall in Mozambique, preventing further intensification.

It looks like I forecasted Dineo fairly accurately, although the winds were 70 knots per JTWC and the number was 05S since "Alfred" did not develop. We are still waiting on something to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria, but it looks like that may finally happen this weekend with 91P spinning along and eventually probably further away from the coastline. It is also possible we could see the storm near French Polynesia be named and classified by the JTWC. The next name on the South Pacific list is Bart.

Even if there is more activity in the coming weeks, I will still begin working on my simulator even though it may be quite the endeavor. It will be worth it to keep myself and likeminded storm trackers from becoming completely bored during such dull seasons...

[404UserNotFound]

Even if there is more activity in the coming weeks, I will still begin working on my simulator even though it may be quite the endeavor. It will be worth it to keep myself and likeminded storm trackers from becoming completely bored during such dull seasons...

Would the end result end up looking anything like this?


Link: https://youtu.be/IVwXoSdVV5g

[Calasanjy]

Would the end result end up looking anything like this?

Is this (the GEOS-5 model) available commercially? In addition/if so, can it be applied to basins other than the Atlantic? Thanks.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/834507883425390592

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/834552998445490177

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Past few ec runs have been showing a TC off nw WA.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.windytv.com/?2017-03-06-00,-7.232,68.687,4


EC also modelling a TC SWIO.



Same NT system as the previous post ec has it weak over Darwin then ramping up in the JBG.

[cycloneye]

EC bombs future system near Madagascar.

[1900hurricane]

Invest 95S has been tagged in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. Guidance takes this system towards Madagascar as a well developed system over the next week to ten days.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Maybe the earlier poor season might have something to do with low surface corrialain vorticity at the time with the disturbances most of the season.
https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/09 ... 0-0669.pdf
Fig 14

[wxman57]

Would the end result end up looking anything like this?

Is this (the GEOS-5 model) available commercially? In addition/if so, can it be applied to basins other than the Atlantic? Thanks.

It's not a model, it's a satellite loop of the 2005 season made using GOES-5 satellite data.

[kala]

uhhh GEOS-5 is definitely a model and that is definitely not imagery of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

It is available, I think. This might help: https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/GEOS/

[Calasanjy]

uhhh GEOS-5 is definitely a model and that is definitely not imagery of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

It is available, I think. This might help: https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/GEOS/

Great - thank you. I will look into this. Perhaps I will not have to develop a simulator myself after all; at least not a highly-sophisticated one.

I am certainly not bored with the current events in the Southern Hemisphere anyway, but a simulator may come in handy during future quiet periods.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 14 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Friday 17 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea over the next few days.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Models are bombing this TC hi resolution EC is inline with the GFS mb.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 16 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 19 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm WST a weak tropical low was located near 12S 108E (southeast of Christmas Island). The low is forecast to move westwards over the next few days, passing south of Christmas Island on Friday. While the system is unlikely to develop in the next few days, there is a slight chance of the system strengthening later in the weekend or next week as it continues to move westwards.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low




Sunday:Low

The monsoon trough is strengthening over waters north of Australia. A tropical low may develop in the trough during Friday or Saturday. Any system is likely to move westwards across the Timor Sea and may reach the western Region on Sunday. It is only a small chance of becoming a tropical cyclone on Sunday though the risk increases during next week as it continues to move to the west.

https://www.windytv.com/?2017-03-26-00,-21.739,59.019,4
EC also spinning up another cyclone in SWIO

[Darvince]

This may just be me being jaded by how anomalously inactive this season has been on our planet's down under, but I wouldn't trust that it will happen until it's showing it less than a week out for ECMWF and 5 days out for GFS. At least there are some modelstorms I guess? Personally I am surprised that the AUS basin hasn't started doing anything considering the ITCZ isn't focused over Australia anymore like it was over summer.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

DW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Friday 17 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Monday 20 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:A tropical low is forecast to develop in the monsoon trough through the Arafura Sea today or on Saturday. Any system is likely to move westwards across the Timor Sea over the weekend and may move into the western Region on Sunday. There is a small chance that this system becomes a tropical cyclone on Monday though the risk increases during next week as it continues to move to the west or southwest.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 19 March 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 22 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough currently lies over waters south of Indonesia and across the Timor Sea. A tropical low is likely to form tonight or tomorrow in the trough a long way north of Broome. It is then forecast to move slowly west before turning south on Tuesday and Wednesday. The risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone increases over the next few days, with a Moderate risk on Wednesday. The risk increases to High towards the end of the week as the system tracks towards the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Moderate

Reasonable chance a for another named system if the low can stay far enough offshore.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC modelling a strong TC in the coral sea landfall QLD. Models have not been
very reliable this season.