#28 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:01 pm
One thing for certain, 2017 is the second year after a very powerful El Nino, so I am still concerned about what the hurricane season might have. Still years that fall in this category are most usually very strong La Nina years, but as wxman57 just said, and some models are saying, the Pacific does not look like it will produce that kind of event this year. I think a warm neutral is quite plausible, but another El Nino seems crazy unless it is a Modoki. This sort of thing actually took place in 1979 and 2004, as both years were in that category of the second year after a traditional El Nino, but had Modoki events themselves.
However, very few other years are able to provide much in the way of clues. 1980 - which was the first year after the 1979 Modoki, just as dangerous as a second year after a traditional - had some equatorial warming but it was weak and La Nina seemed to rule the roost that year. That year was, of course, the year Allen terrorized the Caribbean before hitting South Texas. But what some people may not realize is that there was actually warming already beginning the equatorial EPAC during the hurricane season of 2008. However, it was not enough to stop Gustav and Ike from causing the terrors they they did in Haiti, Cuba, and the Gulf.
Or maybe 2003 is worth a look. The EPAC, except for a small cold area at the equatorial immediately off South America, was on the warmish side, but not enough to be an El Nino. The MDR produce two big ones in Fabian and Isabel, the latter reaching the East Coast. And some say that 2002 was more Modoki than traditional, though the tropical Atlantic had plenty of struggles that year for a Modoki. That said, there was a September spike in activity in 2002, which can easily happen in Modoki years. (It did happen near the peak in 1979 and in August 2004.)
My top analogs for this year so far? Probably 1979, 1980, 2003, and 2008. I am not ready to call a season quite like 2004 because it was so intense with all the Florida hits, but the type of season 2004 was puts that year maybe in the ballpark. An abbreviated season, but with heavy activity at about the peak with a couple doozies would not surprise me though in the least, like the first two analogs and even 2004. The other two were more sustained overall, but the strongest still were generally near the peak in 2003 and 2008 as well, and activity in other periods - particularly 2003, minus Claudette - was not as spectacular. 2008 still did give us Omar and Paloma later though, while the other three plus 2004 were fairly quiet.
-Andrew92
Last edited by
Andrew92 on Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Me.