My Forecast for the 2017 Hurricane Season

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I was discussing the season with Phil Klotzbach this morning. The El Nino forecast is interesting (new ECMWF). He went with a 60% chance of an above normal season in his December outlook, not believing the early forecasts of El Nino. However, the January forecast is even more bullish on at least a weak El Nino for 2017. Along with that, the ECMWF is forecasting increasing surface pressure and below-normal rainfall across the deep tropics through July. Those signals point to a below-normal season.

So par for the course the past 5 years (and yet to verify).

[Hurricaneman]

February 8 2017

2017 hurricane forecast

Vertical instability: currently is well below normal and if that continues it will be a hindrance and could put a damper on the MDR but looks as though the rest of the Atlantic over all is above normal similar to 2005

ENSO: Seems to be in a -neutral phase right now but we could end up in either a positive neutral or even an El Nino which could cause shear where most hurricanes form so this could be a hindrance depending on the orientation of the El Nino or if its a modoki or not

SOI: The SOI is literally for 90 days only 1.23 which is solidly in the neutral category but has been mostly positive the last few weeks which is indicative of cooling in the ENSO and negating WWBs which is a positive for the 2017 hurricane season

EPAC MDR: seems to be about .5 above normal but seems to be warming as of the last week or 2 which could cause shear in the Atlantic but not the inhibiting kind which is almost a positive

PDO: Is positive at the moment which could be a possible negative for the 2017 hurricane season

Azores high: The position and strength will be key as if its farther south then it will be a quieter season in the MDR but if it ends up farther north or weaker then it could be a big MDR season so we'll have a better idea on this and in a way it depends on the configuration of the SSTAs in the Atlantic as a cooler than normal north atlantic and warmer than normal subtropical atlantic could lead to a stronger and farther south Azores High and vise versa

AMO: I see no reason to go against a +AMO which could be another positive for the 2017 hurricane season

SAL: I think this is all going to depend on the Azores high so we'll know more by May

Based on what I currently see I see a lot of conflicting data that could go either way especially if an El Nino comes on

Heres the numbers I'm putting up based on Neutral, Traditional El Nino and El Nino Madoki

Neutral 22\11\5

El Nino Madoki 17\8\3

El Nino 12\5\2

here are my analogs if this goes Madoki El Nino

2004
1969
1979
1968
1959

analogs if we stay +neutral

2003
2005
1990
2012
1980

if we get traditional El Nino weak

2006
1994
2014
1976
1977

next forecast is on march 10th and will narrow down to 2 sets of analogs hopefully

[Hurricaneman]

If I were going to narrow it down it might be between +neutral and El Nino Madoki at current time but I probably wont be able to narrow it down until either April or May

[SFLcane]

Maybe we'll skip this season?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/832255708800307200

[gatorcane]

Weather pattern across the Southern United States already seems "El Nino-ish" with an active subtropical jet, wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of El Nino like the ECMWF is showing but how strong this El Nino gets and where the warmest anomalies are makes a big difference. Compare the "Godzilla" El Nino of 2015 to the Modoki El Nino of 2004.

[Kingarabian]

Weather pattern across the Southern United States already seems "El Nino-ish" with an active subtropical jet, wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of El Nino like the ECMWF is showing but how strong this El Nino gets and where the warmest anomalies are makes a big difference. Compare the "Godzilla" El Nino of 2015 to the Modoki El Nino of 2004.

Or something like 2009's El Nino which shut down the ATL hurricane season as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Either way it sounds like yet another decent El Niño episode very well could be on it's way in time to shut down the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

If it weren't for the the other basins having their own hurricane seasons making up for the Atlantic S2K would be suffering.

[Hurricaneman]

Either way it sounds like yet another decent El Niño episode very well could be on it's way in time to shut down the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

If it weren't for the the other basins having their own hurricane seasons making up for the Atlantic S2K would be suffering.

I'm going to re evaluate my forecast when I do the March update as it seems like a Traditional El Nino might also be in the cards, 2006 is popping up as a main analog and possibly 2009, 2002, 1991 and possibly 1994 but certainly cant count out a season like 1969 or 2004 if the ENSO 1\2 stays towards the cooler\neutral side like it is currently

[cycloneye]

This could offset some of El Nino noise if it remains this way and the AMO forecast occurs.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/832588288850530304




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/832588669525565444

[Hurricaneman]

March 9 2017

2017 hurricane forecast

Vertical instability: currently is well below normal and if that continues it will be a hindrance and could put a damper on the MDR but looks as though the rest of the Atlantic over all is above normal similar to 2005

ENSO: Seems to be in a neutral phase right now but we could end up in either a positive neutral or even an El Nino which could cause shear where most hurricanes form so this could be a hindrance depending on the orientation of the El Nino or if its a modoki or not but if I'm a betting man I would go with a 1969 kind of configuration of the Enso which would be beneficial to the numbers

SOI: The SOI is literally for 90 days only 0.17 which is solidly in the neutral category but has been mostly bouncing between positive and negative the last few weeks negating WWBs which is a positive for the 2017 hurricane season

EPAC MDR: seems to be about .5 above normal but seems to be warming as of the last week or 2 which could cause shear in the Atlantic but not the inhibiting kind which is almost a positive

PDO: Is positive at the moment which could be a possible negative for the 2017 hurricane season

Azores high: The position and strength will be key as if its farther south then it will be a quieter season in the MDR but if it ends up farther north or weaker then it could be a big MDR season so we'll have a better idea on this and in a way it depends on the configuration of the SSTAs in the Atlantic as a cooler than normal north atlantic and warmer than normal subtropical atlantic could lead to a stronger and farther south Azores High and vise versa. The Azores High seems to be setting up closer to Bermuda which could be a positive for MDR development and lets hope it doesn't set up there or the GOM could be looking at landfall possibilities but the Azores-Bermuda high could change during hurricane season

AMO: I see no reason to go against a +AMO which could be another positive for the 2017 hurricane season but as of late there seems to be a lot of cooling in the MDR which could possibly hurt activity in the MDR

SAL: I think this is all going to depend on the Azores high so we'll know more by May

Based on what I currently see I see a lot of conflicting data that could go either way especially if an El Nino comes on

Heres the numbers I'm putting up based on Neutral, Traditional El Nino and El Nino Madoki

Neutral 22\11\5

El Nino Madoki 17\8\3

El Nino 12\5\2

here are my analogs if this goes Madoki El Nino

2004
1969
1979
1968
1959

analogs if we stay +neutral

2003
2005
1990
2012
1980

if we get traditional El Nino weak

2006
1994
2014
1976
1977

nothing is off the table as of now and April 10th is the next forecast

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to change the format to add where I think these are going to go

ENSO: looks like the anomalies have dropped significantly in the ENSO 1/2 region no near normal levels and even the 3 area is starting to drop, this would be a positive if it continues but the models are showing that warming may start as early as the middle of this month which would change things towards an El Niño which in turn would be a negative

Vertical instability: the Atlantic MDR seems to be below normal but not as far below normal as recent years which could favor more moisture to help tropical waves out in the Atlantic but the instability overall seems to be on a curved line higher than normal in the GOM, Caribbean, East coast and the subtropics which could mean close to home developments

EPAC MDR: the anomalies seem to be coming down some and this area will need to be watched to see if this continues as this could end up being a positive for the hurricane season

PDO: still seems to be in a positive phase which is usually a negative for the Atlantic

Atlantic SSTAs: it looks like the MDR is warming up and the Positive AMO may still remain intact and there seems to be some semblance of a positive Atlantic tripole developing and both of those are positives for the hurricane season

SAL: seems like there's a current SAL outbreak going on but if the Bermuda/Azores high sets up closer to Bermuda like currently could lead to less SAL outbreaks and could be a big positive for the MDR at least

Bermuda/azores high: seems like it's setting up closer to Bermuda than the azores which could be a positive for the hurricane season

Steering currents: this is the one thing that has me worried is if the Bermuda high stays closer to Bermuda than the azores then it more than likely will send tropical activity into the US mainland usually up the eastern seaboard or eastern GOM

SOI: right now I see no deep positives or negatives to bring on a WWB but that could change at any moment and if this continues the El Niño may not be a traditional one


So based on this I'm thinking 12/5/2 and this could certainly change as the next month or so progresses and my analog for this year is 2002

Possible landfalls risk

High
Eastern seaboard to eastern Gom, and Texas
Cuba and Hispaniola

Medium risk
Central GOM
BOC
Nova scotia

Low risk
Puerto Rico
Lesser Antilles
Central America

Next forecast will be the final one on May 30

[Hurricaneman]

An analog I forgot to put in is 1979

[Hurricaneman]

Will be doing a final forecast for the hurricane season on may 30 and will be doing daily outlooks for each section of the basin starting June 1st

[weathaguyry]

Will be doing a final forecast for the hurricane season on may 30 and will be doing daily outlooks for each section of the basin starting June 1st

Thank you! I look forward to seeing your insight for the upcoming season

[Hurricaneman]

My final 2017 hurricane season forecast pre season edition

There are many reasons why I believe the 2017 hurricane season may be the busiest since 2010 and here are a few reasons

The positive horseshoe anomalies in the Atlantic have a tendency to drop the pressures in the MDR and make for more robust waves to transverse the Atlantic

The positive tripole setup that's going on tends to also setup lower pressures in the MDR and also sets the azores/Bermuda high farther west towards Bermuda which keeps most of the activity south of 20n until near the lesser Antilles

Cooler conditions in the EPAC MDR usually lessen the shear on the Atlantic side causing for more intense tropical cyclones

Shear conditions look as though it will be favorable and that's a positive for hurricane development

Sal is still going to be an unknown until July but it looks as though with where I expect the Azores/Bermuda high to be it shouldn't be a problem

The ENSO is expected to be in the positive neutral category with a possible slip into a weak El Niño and possibly a madoki one at that which would be a positive unless something unforeseen happens

The only negative that I see is the positive PDO which could warm the EPAC MDR some which could change things

The steering currents look as though that anywhere from the Carolinas south and west to the central gulf may need to keep a close eye on things with the position of the Bermuda high and anything that forms near Africa will most likely be out to sea but that's no guarantee

Risk assessment

High risk
All of Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Alabama
Mississippi
Eastern Louisiana

Moderate risk
Delaware
Virginia
Maryland
Western Louisiana
Texas

Low risk
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine

My numbers are as follows

19/10/5

Top analogs
1979
1969
2004
2012
2014

Daily forecast starting June 1st