My Forecast for the 2017 Hurricane Season

[Hurricaneman]

December 9 2016

2017 hurricane forecast

Vertical instability: currently is well above normal and looks to be that way for the foreseeable future which if continued could be a help in getting things going in the MDR in 2017 but that could change and is really only going to be known by April or May

ENSO: Seems to be in a -neutral phase right now but is expected to be neutral to +neutral by the 2017 hurricane season which could be a positive or negative depending on the configuration of the ENSO even if neutral

SOI: The SOI is literally for 90 days only 2.4 which is solidly in the neutral category but has been mostly positive the last few weeks which is indicative of cooling in the ENSO and negating WWBs which is a positive for the 2017 hurricane season

EPAC MDR: seems to be about .5 to 1.0 above normal which has cooled through the 2016 hurricane season but that needs to be watched as further cooling could lead to really favorable conditions for the 2017 hurricane season

PDO: Is positive .56 at the moment which could be a possible negative for the 2017 hurricane season but the PDO seems to on average been dropping which if it switches to a -pdo then it might turn into a positive for development for the 2017 hurricane season

Azores high: The position and strength will be key as if its farther south then it will be a quieter season in the MDR but if it ends up farther north or weaker then it could be a big MDR season so we'll have a better idea on this and in a way it depends on the configuration of the SSTAs in the Atlantic as a cooler than normal north atlantic and warmer than normal subtropical atlantic could lead to a stronger and farther south Azores High and vise versa

AMO: I see no reason to go against a +AMO which could be another positive for the 2017 hurricane season

SAL: I think this is all going to depend on the Azores high so we'll know more by May

Steering currents: also won't be known until May if if I were to venture a guess steering similar to 2016 maybe farther west may be in the cards

Based on what I currently see I see an well above average season coming but will save the numbers for a later update

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[CrazyC83]

That's my thinking too. I think the best analogs are 1955, 1961, 1974, 1989, 1999 and 2011.

[HurricaneRyan]

That's my thinking too. I think the best analogs are 1955, 1961, 1974, 1989, 1999 and 2011.

If those are all the analog years, then that means the US is likely to have a significant storm make landfall. Every single year listed had at least one storm make a significant US landfall, with Connie, Diane, and Ione from 1955, Carla in 1961, Carmen in 1974, Hugo in 1989, Bret, Dennis and Floyd in 1999 and Irene in 2011. And 4 out of 6 of those years saw a significant landfall or storm somewhere else in the Atlantic with Janet in 1955, Hattie in 1961, Fifi in 1974 and Lenny in 1999.

So it looks 2017 is a season to watch out for.

[gatorcane]

So it looks 2017 is a season to watch out for.

Well 2016 was quite a bad year for the US and Caribbean. While still early, 2017 could also be quite a year especially when you look at the MDR. We are the second year after an El Niño which is usually one to closely watch and even seeing a light La Niña currently. The waters in the EPAC south of Mexico and north of the Equator are already cooler so we could see even less shear across the MDR this year. MDR could really come to life this year for a change with even more activity than last year.

[chaser1]

I realize its a bit early for the 2017 Atlantic Contest, but i'll throw down the gauntlet with a preliminary 18/13/5

[Steve820]

Based on the conditions described above, the year is one to watch for and could be active in the Atlantic. It might even surpass last year's activity. My forecast is 16-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors.

[SFLcane]

Um not soooo fast some models predicting the end of la nina and "el nino" returning this summer so we shall see.

[chaser1]

At this time, I'm anticipating ENSO to essentially be a non-factor and to lie somewhere in the neutral range during the early part of the season. There seems to be a rough 30-60 day delay with regard to ENSO conditions impacting Atlantic weather patterns (regardless if El Nino or La Nina). Unless there is a pronounced above or below average condition developing over the Pacific prior to late August, I don't see ENSO playing a particularly important factor.

[1900hurricane]

It's early with plenty of time for things to take shape still, but at the moment, I'm favoring enhanced activity in the Eastern Pacific over the Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

It's early with plenty of time for things to take shape still, but at the moment, I'm favoring enhanced activity in the Eastern Pacific over the Atlantic.

PDO jumped really high in November and will come in December at 1+ again. Cfsv2 and others keep the positive anomalies including through the EPAC MDR and continue the +PDO further. The biggest difference is this year may actually be closer to a possible El Nino than a La NIna compared to last year. Very early though.

[SFLcane]

It's early with plenty of time for things to take shape still, but at the moment, I'm favoring enhanced activity in the Eastern Pacific over the Atlantic.

What's new...

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to update my forecast in 5 days, there will be changes and a first look on numbers as in that update I will put out my numbers.

[Steve820]

I do slightly feel an above-average season is coming despite a potential shift a bit more towards El Nino. We shall see.

[Andrew92]

I know there is speculation that El Nino may return this year, but this quick of a turnaround between such events is quite rare. That said, it did happen a little over a decade ago.....in a roundabout way. 2004 did see warming into an El Nino, but of the Modoki type instead of a classical EPAC-based event.

I just think it's too soon since the last event in 2015 for something similar to that again, even if weak. But I wonder about a Modoki, just thinking about some of the long-range forecasts plus these historical odds. Specifically as well, a Modoki with little warming in the EPAC as well, almost all of it in the CPAC.

-Andrew92

[AxaltaRacing24]

I know there is speculation that El Nino may return this year, but this quick of a turnaround between such events is quite rare. That said, it did happen a little over a decade ago.....in a roundabout way. 2004 did see warming into an El Nino, but of the Modoki type instead of a classical EPAC-based event.

I just think it's too soon since the last event in 2015 for something similar to that again, even if weak. But I wonder about a Modoki, just thinking about some of the long-range forecasts plus these historical odds. Specifically as well, a Modoki with little warming in the EPAC as well, almost all of it in the CPAC.

-Andrew92

If it does take place, I feel that it will prevent 2016 like activity late in the season. The normal season would be just fine though. If it doesn't occur then it will be like 2016, above average all around with 2016 like numbers or slightly higher.

[Ptarmigan]

The forecast of El Nino developing again in 2017 is interesting. Current winter is Neutral, while previous winter is El Nino. This pattern has occurred before.

2002-2003 El Nino
2003-2004 Neutral
2004-2005 El Nino

2004 was an active hurricane season. The following season, 2005, was active as well.

Could this suggest 2018 could be an active season?

[Hurricaneman]

January 8 2017

2017 hurricane forecast

Vertical instability: currently is near normal and if that continues it will neither be a help nor a hindrance but if near normal could bring some activity to the MDR

ENSO: Seems to be in a -neutral phase right now but we could end up in either a positive neutral or even an El Nino which could cause shear where most hurricanes form so this could be a hindrance depending on the orientation of the El Nino or if its a modoki or not

SOI: The SOI is literally for 90 days only -.08 which is solidly in the neutral category but has been mostly positive the last few weeks which is indicative of cooling in the ENSO and negating WWBs which is a positive for the 2017 hurricane season

EPAC MDR: seems to be about .5 to 1.0 above normal but seems to be warming as of the last week or 2 which could cause shear in the Atlantic

PDO: Is positive at the moment which could be a possible negative for the 2017 hurricane season

Azores high: The position and strength will be key as if its farther south then it will be a quieter season in the MDR but if it ends up farther north or weaker then it could be a big MDR season so we'll have a better idea on this and in a way it depends on the configuration of the SSTAs in the Atlantic as a cooler than normal north atlantic and warmer than normal subtropical atlantic could lead to a stronger and farther south Azores High and vise versa

AMO: I see no reason to go against a +AMO which could be another positive for the 2017 hurricane season

SAL: I think this is all going to depend on the Azores high so we'll know more by May

Based on what I currently see I see a lot of conflicting data that could go either way especially if an El Nino comes on

Heres the numbers I'm putting up based on Neutral, Traditional El Nino and El Nino Madoki

Neutral 22\11\5

El Nino Modoki 17\8\3

El Nino 12\5\2

Forecast will be updated February 10th

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/818389230418206720

[wxman57]

I was discussing the season with Phil Klotzbach this morning. The El Nino forecast is interesting (new ECMWF). He went with a 60% chance of an above normal season in his December outlook, not believing the early forecasts of El Nino. However, the January forecast is even more bullish on at least a weak El Nino for 2017. Along with that, the ECMWF is forecasting increasing surface pressure and below-normal rainfall across the deep tropics through July. Those signals point to a below-normal season.

[WeatherEmperor]

I was discussing the season with Phil Klotzbach this morning. The El Nino forecast is interesting (new ECMWF). He went with a 60% chance of an above normal season in his December outlook, not believing the early forecasts of El Nino. However, the January forecast is even more bullish on at least a weak El Nino for 2017. Along with that, the ECMWF is forecasting increasing surface pressure and below-normal rainfall across the deep tropics through July. Those signals point to a below-normal season.

What is the model (EURO) skill level so early in the year (January) for predicting Enso events for Aug/Sept/Oct?


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