Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[OuterBanker]

Here is the entire Weatherbell post (the free version).

https://www.weatherbell.com/2017-hurricane-outlook

[Hurricaneman]

Here is the entire Weatherbell post (the free version).

https://www.weatherbell.com/2017-hurricane-outlook

Also makes a good point of pressure patterns as the storms weakening as they move north of 20N lately near land

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel released their 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

[NDG]

The Weather Channel released their 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

[im g]http://i65.tinypic.com/1i3p2.jpg[/img]

I think that is a good forecast, an average season.

[Kazmit]

The Weather Channel released their 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

[im g]http://i65.tinypic.com/1i3p2.jpg[/img]

I think that is a good forecast, an average season.

Yeah, I agree with TWC's forecast. It seems that they're forecasting an average season if El Niño DOES develop. They mention that if it fails to develop, their numbers may be too low. Very interesting, and quite a different outlook than most other forecasts.

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel released their 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

[im g]http://i65.tinypic.com/1i3p2.jpg[/img]

I think that is a good forecast, an average season.

Yeah, I agree with TWC's forecast. It seems that they're forecasting an average season if El Niño DOES develop. They mention that if it fails to develop, their numbers may be too low. Very interesting, and quite a different outlook than most other forecasts.

In my opinion, this season will likely be more challenging to forecast compared to last season as it was more guaranteed as to what the ENSO was going to be last year.

[NDG]

I think that is a good forecast, an average season.

Yeah, I agree with TWC's forecast. It seems that they're forecasting an average season if El Niño DOES develop. They mention that if it fails to develop, their numbers may be too low. Very interesting, and quite a different outlook than most other forecasts.

In my opinion, this season will likely be more challenging to forecast compared to last season as it was more guaranteed as to what the ENSO was going to be last year.

I think that last year it was still challenging to many even though a La Nina was eminent, many were forecasting near average to below average activity in their April forecast,including the CSU team because of high pressure & cooler SSTs being forecasted by the Euro for the Atlantic basin.

[Alyono]

I'm not as pessimistic on activity this year as I was last year. Had the PDO not have crashed like it did in late September, the season would have been well below average. That said, we had only 3 storms from Sept 20 through the end of the season. They all becomes cat 3+ though. Those 3 storms made up about an average season's worth of ACE

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not as pessimistic on activity this year as I was last year. Had the PDO not have crashed like it did in late September, the season would have been well below average. That said, we had only 3 storms from Sept 20 through the end of the season. They all becomes cat 3+ though. Those 3 storms made up about an average season's worth of ACE

But the PDO is just as positive as last year and instead of la nina at the equator we are likely to see el nino at the equator this year. Also pressures are expected to be higher than normal in the MDR similar to last year. So if most of the conditions are forecast to be similar to last year how come you are not as pessimistic this year?


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[Ntxw]

I'd say last year was a bit easier than this year. Despite CSU's forecast the majority of consensus (even here 2k) was pretty good at seeing the weak Nina being a favorable entity that eventually did pan out to pretty good numbers for the board as a whole. This year has a lot more mixed signals and short terms variables may play a bigger role than normal.

Instead of looking at ENSO, which may turn out to be not much of a clue, how the Atlantic condition behaves may just rule the roost.

[NDG]

I'm not as pessimistic on activity this year as I was last year. Had the PDO not have crashed like it did in late September, the season would have been well below average. That said, we had only 3 storms from Sept 20 through the end of the season. They all becomes cat 3+ though. Those 3 storms made up about an average season's worth of ACE

But the PDO is just as positive as last year and instead of la nina at the equator we are likely to see el nino at the equator this year. Also pressures are expected to be higher than normal in the MDR similar to last year. So if most of the conditions are forecast to be similar to last year how come you are not as pessimistic this year?


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For the record the PDO is currently not as positive as it was this same time last year.
Last month was at 0.74 compared to 2.4 last year. Waters along NW N.A. are cooler than last year.

[Alyono]

Cuba is only going for 10 storms and 6 hurricanes

[OuterBanker]

Cuba is only going for 10 storms and 6 hurricanes

Alyono,
Is that for the season or only for Cuba!

[Alyono]

Cuba is only going for 10 storms and 6 hurricanes

Alyono,
Is that for the season or only for Cuba!

that's their seasonal forecast, which I STRONGLY disagree with. They are calling for far too many el niño impacts

[ScottNAtlanta]

The more I've looked as May is going by, the more I am thinking many of these forecasts are underdone. This is the first year in a while that you have had solid warm anomalies in the MDR with a solid cool anomaly sitting above it which will lower pressures in the MDR. Also its looking like the possible El Nino is going to more likely be neutral (La Nada). This isnt the same pattern we've seen the last several years.

[cycloneye]

Next releases of forecasts from the experts are as follow:

May 25=NOAA
May 26=TSR
June 1= CSU

[Kazmit]

I'm curious to see what NOAA will forecast for this season.

[Kingarabian]

Weatherbell's updated May 12 forecast is out.

They upped their numbers a bit to 11-13 from 10-12. ACE from 75-95. They stressed that the forecast is very complicated, and that the El Nino is likely to form but they are not too worried about it since they believe it will be a Modoki (despite the fact that there's no signs that if an El Nino forms, it won't be a Modoki). Also they're calling for the major hurricane drought to end this season.

[TheStormExpert]

Weatherbell's updated May 12 forecast is out.

They upped their numbers a bit to 11-13 from 10-12. ACE from 75-95. They stressed that the forecast is very complicated, and that the El Nino is likely to form but they are not too worried about it since they believe it will be a Modoki (despite the fact that there's no signs that if an El Nino forms, it won't be a Modoki). Also they're calling for the major hurricane drought to end this season.

If the Euro is showing MSLP the most favorable in 11 years then why is he being so conservative with only 11-13 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 majors?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/862840935582978049

[Kingarabian]

Weatherbell's updated May 12 forecast is out.

They upped their numbers a bit to 11-13 from 10-12. ACE from 75-95. They stressed that the forecast is very complicated, and that the El Nino is likely to form but they are not too worried about it since they believe it will be a Modoki (despite the fact that there's no signs that if an El Nino forms, it won't be a Modoki). Also they're calling for the major hurricane drought to end this season.

If the Euro is showing MSLP the most favorable in 11 years then why is he being so conservative with only 11-13 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 majors?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/862840935582978049

Weatherbell says the possibility of an El Nino, which have to be taken into account.

Bastardi firmly believes a Nino will form this season.

They've also had a very hard time in finding an analog for this season that takes the warm Pacific tempts into account (PDO region, east of Australia, Nino regions etc).