Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 15, 2017 2:52 pm

Here are the Jim Williams (Hurricane City) predictions for the 2017 Atlantic season that includes the cities that have a High Risk and Moderate Risk of landfalls or center passing close.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#42 Postby Kazmit » Mon May 15, 2017 3:11 pm

:uarrow: Notice how many of the moderate to high risk areas are in the Northeast.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#43 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 15, 2017 3:24 pm

:uarrow: Something to keep in mind, he was nearly spot-on in predicting a storm taking the same or close to same track that Matthew took in his pre-season outlook like the one above.

This year he has a into the Texas Coastline or Northern Gulf Coast early season then a track similar or close to that of Hurricanes Charley and Wilma for later in the season.

This further supports my thoughts that there could be less East Coast ridging when compared to last season allowing a potential track into the GoM or cutting across or up the Florida peninsula coming out of the Western Caribbean. I also believe he is hinting at the Caribbean and GoM being more active than previous years.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#44 Postby OuterBanker » Tue May 16, 2017 3:34 pm

JB's latest posted two days ago.
https://www.weatherbell.com/updated-201 ... ne-outlook

Kind of scary. Of particular disturbing interest is the 50’s to 60’s landfall maps he posted. Interesting how the models have gone from an El Nino in the Pacific and higher pressures in MDR to a slight chance of an El Nino and lower pressures in the MDR. It’s starting to look like any predictions or models prior to May isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#45 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue May 16, 2017 4:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Something to keep in mind, he was nearly spot-on in predicting a storm taking the same or close to same track that Matthew took in his pre-season outlook like the one above.

This year he has a into the Texas Coastline or Northern Gulf Coast early season then a track similar or close to that of Hurricanes Charley and Wilma for later in the season.

This further supports my thoughts that there could be less East Coast ridging when compared to last season allowing a potential track into the GoM or cutting across or up the Florida peninsula coming out of the Western Caribbean. I also believe he is hinting at the Caribbean and GoM being more active than previous years.


Normally I am very pessimistic about hurricane threats to SE Fla during any particular year, but this year I feel different. I think S.Fla will be under the gun this year...potentially from a major hurricane. I don't have any real scientific data to back this up...it's more of a gut feeling. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#46 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 16, 2017 6:24 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Something to keep in mind, he was nearly spot-on in predicting a storm taking the same or close to same track that Matthew took in his pre-season outlook like the one above.

This year he has a into the Texas Coastline or Northern Gulf Coast early season then a track similar or close to that of Hurricanes Charley and Wilma for later in the season.

This further supports my thoughts that there could be less East Coast ridging when compared to last season allowing a potential track into the GoM or cutting across or up the Florida peninsula coming out of the Western Caribbean. I also believe he is hinting at the Caribbean and GoM being more active than previous years.


Normally I am very pessimistic about hurricane threats to SE Fla during any particular year, but this year I feel different. I think S.Fla will be under the gun this year...potentially from a major hurricane. I don't have any real scientific data to back this up...it's more of a gut feeling. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.

I also have a gut feeling that S. FL won't be as fortunate as last season with Matthew being a near-miss as a major hurricane. I've had this gut feeling for several months now but I also had a gut feeling prior to the 2010 season and look what happened. My guess is that we are more likely to be under the gun from a backdoor Western Caribbean storm like Wilma was as opposed to from the East similar to Matthew or something coming off Africa.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#47 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue May 16, 2017 6:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Something to keep in mind, he was nearly spot-on in predicting a storm taking the same or close to same track that Matthew took in his pre-season outlook like the one above.

This year he has a into the Texas Coastline or Northern Gulf Coast early season then a track similar or close to that of Hurricanes Charley and Wilma for later in the season.

This further supports my thoughts that there could be less East Coast ridging when compared to last season allowing a potential track into the GoM or cutting across or up the Florida peninsula coming out of the Western Caribbean. I also believe he is hinting at the Caribbean and GoM being more active than previous years.


Normally I am very pessimistic about hurricane threats to SE Fla during any particular year, but this year I feel different. I think S.Fla will be under the gun this year...potentially from a major hurricane. I don't have any real scientific data to back this up...it's more of a gut feeling. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.

I also have a gut feeling that S. FL won't be as fortunate as last season with Matthew being a near-miss as a major hurricane. I've had this gut feeling for several months now but I also had a gut feeling prior to the 2010 season and look what happened. My guess is that we are more likely to be under the gun from a backdoor Western Caribbean storm like Wilma was as opposed to from the East similar to Matthew or something coming off Africa.


I'm thinking something similar to a Hurricane Donna track but a bit farther north into Miami-Dade county.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#48 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 16, 2017 8:25 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
Normally I am very pessimistic about hurricane threats to SE Fla during any particular year, but this year I feel different. I think S.Fla will be under the gun this year...potentially from a major hurricane. I don't have any real scientific data to back this up...it's more of a gut feeling. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.

I also have a gut feeling that S. FL won't be as fortunate as last season with Matthew being a near-miss as a major hurricane. I've had this gut feeling for several months now but I also had a gut feeling prior to the 2010 season and look what happened. My guess is that we are more likely to be under the gun from a backdoor Western Caribbean storm like Wilma was as opposed to from the East similar to Matthew or something coming off Africa.


I'm thinking something similar to a Hurricane Donna track but a bit farther north into Miami-Dade county.

I guess you're expecting an exceptionally strong Bermuda High?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#49 Postby weathaguyry » Tue May 16, 2017 10:11 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
Normally I am very pessimistic about hurricane threats to SE Fla during any particular year, but this year I feel different. I think S.Fla will be under the gun this year...potentially from a major hurricane. I don't have any real scientific data to back this up...it's more of a gut feeling. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.

I also have a gut feeling that S. FL won't be as fortunate as last season with Matthew being a near-miss as a major hurricane. I've had this gut feeling for several months now but I also had a gut feeling prior to the 2010 season and look what happened. My guess is that we are more likely to be under the gun from a backdoor Western Caribbean storm like Wilma was as opposed to from the East similar to Matthew or something coming off Africa.


I'm thinking something similar to a Hurricane Donna track but a bit farther north into Miami-Dade county.


And here, all of us on Long Island are not yet fully recovered from Sandy at all. I am extremely fearful of a Donna track this year as well, but 50 miles can make all the difference around here, as in 1954, you had a Major Hurricane Strike out on the Island, and it had little effect towards the NYC area, but if we see something like Donna/Belle/Gloria or *Gulp* the 1938 Hurricane up here, that would not be good. I consider Sandy more of an anomaly, because it was not fully tropical in nature, it was a hurricane that transformed into a monster Nor-Easter like system. I know numerous people thought that Sandy was the "big-one" up here, without truly understanding the nature of that system. If there were a fully tropical Cat 2 that smashed into NYC during High Tide, it would probably have similar (if not worse) effects than Sandy, so I am very nervous indeed, and we shall see how the season progresses.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#50 Postby Alyono » Tue May 16, 2017 10:19 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I also have a gut feeling that S. FL won't be as fortunate as last season with Matthew being a near-miss as a major hurricane. I've had this gut feeling for several months now but I also had a gut feeling prior to the 2010 season and look what happened. My guess is that we are more likely to be under the gun from a backdoor Western Caribbean storm like Wilma was as opposed to from the East similar to Matthew or something coming off Africa.


I'm thinking something similar to a Hurricane Donna track but a bit farther north into Miami-Dade county.


And here, all of us on Long Island are not yet fully recovered from Sandy at all. I am extremely fearful of a Donna track this year as well, but 50 miles can make all the difference around here, as in 1954, you had a Major Hurricane Strike out on the Island, and it had little effect towards the NYC area, but if we see something like Donna/Belle/Gloria or *Gulp* the 1938 Hurricane up here, that would not be good. I consider Sandy more of an anomaly, because it was not fully tropical in nature, it was a hurricane that transformed into a monster Nor-Easter like system. I know numerous people thought that Sandy was the "big-one" up here, without truly understanding the nature of that system. If there were a fully tropical Cat 2 that smashed into NYC during High Tide, it would probably have similar (if not worse) effects than Sandy, so I am very nervous indeed, and we shall see how the season progresses.


cat 2 into NYC at high tide is many orders of magnitude worse than Sandy. There would be tidal surges over 20 feet if that were the case. The East and Hudson rivers would be merging into one over lower Manhattan
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#51 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed May 17, 2017 12:20 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#52 Postby OuterBanker » Thu May 18, 2017 3:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here are the Jim Williams (Hurricane City) predictions for the 2017 Atlantic season that includes the cities that have a High Risk and Moderate Risk of landfalls or center passing close.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions


At first I didn't see us listed in the high risk areas and felt relieved. Today I clicked on the map and saw his possible tracks layout. Is that not a Donna repeat?

But, don't mind me. I'm just nervous after last year (and many other that preceded it).

I always thought that CSU was an odd place to make hurricane predictions.

Now thinking that Bill Gray was a genius, what an ideal place to make them!
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#53 Postby OuterBanker » Fri May 19, 2017 10:24 am

Phil Klotzbach's 5/16/17 Power Point presentation to the Governors conference.

Click the word "presentation" in the box in the top right of the page.

Not sure if you have to have a copy of Power Point or not.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#54 Postby JPmia » Fri May 19, 2017 1:50 pm

Can you provide a link?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#55 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 19, 2017 2:28 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Phil Klotzbach's 5/16/17 Power Point presentation to the Governors conference.

Click the word "presentation" in the box in the top right of the page.

Not sure if you have to have a copy of Power Point or not.


Where is the link?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#56 Postby OuterBanker » Fri May 19, 2017 3:22 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#57 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat May 20, 2017 5:49 pm

The Weather Channel upped their numbers, now predicting an above average season.

http://wxch.nl/2qFkfIn

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#58 Postby OuterBanker » Sat May 20, 2017 8:26 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel upped their numbers, now predicting an above average season.

http://wxch.nl/2qFkfIn

Image


Not doubt due to the big flip in the eastern Atlantic and the mdr that the April models didn't see coming. Not let's see if CSU follows suit.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#59 Postby Kazmit » Sat May 20, 2017 9:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel upped their numbers, now predicting an above average season.

http://wxch.nl/2qFkfIn

Image


Not surprising. I'm expecting most of the agencies to raise their numbers before June 1st.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#60 Postby Alyono » Sat May 20, 2017 9:20 pm

15/8/4 is a far better average than is 12/6/3
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