Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3

#101 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:08 pm

:uarrow: Interesting, I'm thinking CSU MAY go up or just remain the same knowing them. Anyone know what they may be going with tomorrow?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3

#102 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:52 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Interesting, I'm thinking CSU MAY go up or just remain the same knowing them. Anyone know what they may be going with tomorrow?


I'm thinking the same numbers. Phil's tweets have been Atlantic negative lately and has taken an interest in the El Nino prospects.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3

#103 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 04, 2017 6:12 pm

Seventeen tropical storms is quite a large number, but seven hurricanes is only one above average. That's a somewhat interesting ratio, even accounting for the three storms that have already been named.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:

#104 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:03 am

When does CSU release their updated forecast?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:

#105 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:04 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3

#106 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:43 am

135 ACE would be a pretty big season above normal, much like last season
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3

#107 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:20 am

I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.

CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3

#108 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:43 am

Blown Away wrote:I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.

CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...


Just curious, what does CSU claim to be the "seasonal average risk" for a major strike to occur for the E Coast or Gulf Coast regions?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#109 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:48 am

CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/892788365728169984
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#110 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:56 am

TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984


Numbers lowered.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#111 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:00 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984


Numbers lowered.

Seems likely IMO. There has been more negative signs appearing as of lately when compared to positives.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#112 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:03 pm

I'm guessing little change. Maybe they bump the number of named storms up 1 or 2 since we've had 5 already.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#113 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:14 pm

Lowers numbers? Why? If anything a slight increase is in the cards. Meat of this season lies ahead folks.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#114 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:18 pm

Number of named storms should decrease by one at the most and increase by 2-3 at the most if anything. But the only number I could see being lowered by one or two is the amount of hurricanes. But with the meat of the season ahead and with mostly favorable conditions in the cards, it should stay mostly stagnant.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#115 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:21 pm

Yeah. I'll predict 17/7/3 from CSU.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#116 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:54 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984


Numbers lowered.


You don't say!
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3

#117 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:00 pm

Blown Away wrote:I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.

CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...


Guess percentages. Gulf got hit by 3 majors in 2005 which was a 44% forecast. Gulf (Florida) got hit by 2 majors in 2004 which was 40% and the 1 E Coast major which was at 52%. I'm sure there's some skill involved or they wouldn't put out the percentage chances of being hit. Nevertheless, none of the US has been hit by a major in almost 12 years. To have 39%/38% possibility is pretty high in a short term sample and probably about right long term if the previous longest major U.S. landfalling drought was 5 years. I don't know.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3

#118 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:04 pm

Steve wrote:I'm sure there's some skill involved or they wouldn't put out the percentage chances of being hit.


There's probably very little (if any) skill to that forecast. I'd guess Phil does it because maybe they will have skill 15 years from now and would have a longer record to compare with.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#119 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:08 pm

Steve wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984


Numbers lowered.


You don't say!


I do lol CSU is a conservative forecast agency. 8-)
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#120 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:07 am

CSU updated hurricane forecast raises NS's by one, 16/8/3.



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/893412446664372225
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