Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#121 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:14 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#122 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:25 am

NOAA increases their prediction to
14-19 named storms (including the six to-date), 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes. ACE expected to be 100%-170% of the median.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#123 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:32 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#124 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:32 am

Interesting to see that NOAA has upped their forecast for the number of storms this season. I didn't see that coming.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#125 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:46 am

I'm afraid this (active remainder of the season) may be the case. I sure hope they are wrong.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#126 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:57 am

Thats a whole a lot of storms yet to come based on NOAA. we shall see.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#127 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:29 am

:eek: We are in for quite a run if this forecast pans out. Funny how many on the board are entertaining season bust ideas yet Phil K and Noaa just revised their forecasts upwards.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#128 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:42 am

What else sticks out is the fact that NOAA has such a wide range. Anything from an average/slightly above average season to an extremely active/hyperactive season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#129 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:28 pm

Also of note... only 60% so if you asked me it could go either way. :wink:
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NOAA Changes 2017 Season Forecast

#130 Postby bohaiboy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:39 pm

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TW just north of Houston :flag:

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#131 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:52 am

I'm leaning towards the lower end of the scale for NOAA with numbers around 14/5/2 for now.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#132 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:51 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I'm leaning towards the lower end of the scale for NOAA with numbers around 14/5/2 for now.

I leaning towards the high end with the conditions that are setting up
I think Sept/Oct is where the hyperactive activity is likely to occur.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#133 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:58 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I'm leaning towards the lower end of the scale for NOAA with numbers around 14/5/2 for now.

I leaning towards the high end with the conditions that are setting up
I think Sept/Oct is where the hyperactive activity is likely to occur.

Things will get cranking after mid-Aug similar to 2004/2010. If everything falls into place it might feel nonstop for a bit.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#134 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:33 pm

see what I posted on the seasonal prediction thread.

The EC is going with a below average number of storms for the rest of the season. However, it is going for above average ACE.

The human seasonal forecasts may be overstating the number of storms. However, the quality of the storms may very well be high
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#135 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:45 pm

Regardless of what happens with 99L and whatever is behind that GFS 18z doesn't show, what it shows is repeated troughs in the southeast. There's always a shot at some homebrew particularly if 99L doesn't suck the energy up and also into the next 2 weeks. At some point after, and GFS doesn't show it yet, but I think when the pattern breaks is when the US will be open. Whether systems come in bursts or if we stay in an extended active period of a few or several weeks is unknown.

I think we ultimately hit mid teens, but that is interesting that EC is going with fewer systems but higher ACE. That means bang for the buck systems. I'd rather most of those stay offshore, but in a year where there is at least some Western Atlantic bias, you have to at least be looking at things becoming sketchy.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#136 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:44 am

JB's forecast has not changed.

@BigJoeBastardi
http://Weatherbell.com forecast has not changed. Feel %of total ACE and where, and the actual ACE more important metric than total names




https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/896002155978657796


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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#137 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:30 pm

Alyono wrote:see what I posted on the seasonal prediction thread.

The EC is going with a below average number of storms for the rest of the season. However, it is going for above average ACE.

The human seasonal forecasts may be overstating the number of storms. However, the quality of the storms may very well be high

So far that hasn't been the case, but I know how things can change just like they did last year with Matthew for instance.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#138 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:18 pm

The Weather Company (The Weather Channel) increased their seasonal outlook yesterday (8/18) to 17/9/4

Source: https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurrican ... pdate.html


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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#139 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:09 am

The extremely active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues according to Phil K.



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/913781350464937985
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#140 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:45 pm

The verification of the 2017 North Atlantic season CSU forecast will be released on November 30.

@philklotzbach
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast verification from @ColoradoStateU will be released on Thursday, November 30 at 11am EST.




https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/935165413477908480
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