Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#61 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat May 20, 2017 10:58 pm

Alyono wrote:15/8/4 is a far better average than is 12/6/3

What do you mean with 15/8/4? The 30 year average according to TWC is 12/6/2.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#62 Postby Alyono » Sat May 20, 2017 11:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Alyono wrote:15/8/4 is a far better average than is 12/6/3

What do you mean with 15/8/4? The 30 year average according to TWC is 12/6/2.


that 30 year average includes the Niel Frank and Robert Sheets years where high latitude storms were often not counted.

1995 is a good part to start averaging as there seems to have been a difference in naming philosophy around then. The average from 1995-2016 is 15/8/4
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#63 Postby Kazmit » Sun May 21, 2017 10:05 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#64 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun May 21, 2017 10:33 am

:uarrow: They also mentioned the possibility of upping their numbers again in their June update, so we shall see.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#65 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 23, 2017 12:53 pm

Mark Sudduth posted a nice video update yesterday for the hurricane season. NOAA will announce their update in 2 days and I expect a slight increase in their numbers but lets see. Here is a link to Mark's video:

https://youtu.be/kvL8fc2syhA


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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#66 Postby Kazmit » Tue May 23, 2017 1:29 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Mark Sudduth posted a nice video update yesterday for the hurricane season. NOAA will announce their update in 2 days and I expect a slight increase in their numbers but lets see. Here is a link to Mark's video:

https://youtu.be/kvL8fc2syhA


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I did enjoy the update. He seems very confident that an El Niño won't develop in time for the peak of the season, and I agree with him. He's posting another one on Thursday, and that's also the day NOAA's forecast comes out. :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#67 Postby weathaguyry » Thu May 25, 2017 8:15 am

If I am correct, NOAA will release their forecast at 11AM?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#68 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu May 25, 2017 8:52 am

weathaguyry wrote:If I am correct, NOAA will release their forecast at 11AM?


Correct. 11am EST


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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#69 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu May 25, 2017 10:18 am

NOAA calling for a above normal hurricane season

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#70 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 25, 2017 10:20 am

11-17 storms I mean come on, atleast make it 11-13 storms I don't like when they do the big range
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#71 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2017 10:23 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#72 Postby weathaguyry » Thu May 25, 2017 10:24 am

From NOAA:
11-17 Storms
5-9 Hurricanes
2-4 Major Hurricanes
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#73 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu May 25, 2017 10:26 am

stormlover2013 wrote:11-17 storms I mean come on, atleast make it 11-13 storms I don't like when they do the big range


You have no idea how much I agree with you on this lol.

Looks like before they had 10-16 and they upped to 11-17 so a slight increase.


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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#74 Postby psyclone » Thu May 25, 2017 10:28 am

I agree that the big ranges are silly but the takeaway for me is we likely have an average to above average season on the way...or put another way, only a 1 in 5 chance of a below average season. It sounds reasonable and like last year I am definitely expecting some pulse quickening activity this year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#75 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 25, 2017 11:33 am

What we can take from NOAA's wide range in their May 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast is that this season is unusually hard to predict. It can go basically almost anyway, their is a slight chance though this could be an slightly below average season or it could be nearly hyper-active very similar to 2010, 2011, 2012, or even 1995. The ENSO is a factor but I think the overall Atlantic conditions are going to matter most in what kind of season this will be. That's why we can't rule out 2013 as an analog though chances of that repeating itself are likely very slim.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#76 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu May 25, 2017 11:58 am

The 11-17 forecast reminds me of when a "Psychic" sits in front of an audience and starts asking vague questions like, "Is there anyone in the audience whose name starts with the letter B?" :lol:
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2017 12:32 pm

Next two forecasts from the experts that will be released. I say that both will raise the numbers from the 11/4/2 they had in early April.

May 26=Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
June 1=CSU
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#78 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 25, 2017 12:38 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#79 Postby Kazmit » Thu May 25, 2017 12:47 pm

Big range = big uncertainty.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#80 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu May 25, 2017 3:11 pm

NOAA always gives a big range. I guess the factors are El Nino and SST's in the MDR. The numbers don't matter much. Only takes one to ruin the day. :roll:
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