Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#81 Postby blp » Thu May 25, 2017 3:13 pm



What caught my eye also on the High Res. Image was the cool Gulf of Guinea. That is a positive indicator for an active MDR.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#82 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 25, 2017 3:31 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What we can take from NOAA's wide range in their May 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast is that this season is unusually hard to predict. It can go basically almost anyway, their is a slight chance though this could be an slightly below average season or it could be nearly hyper-active very similar to 2010, 2011, 2012, or even 1995. The ENSO is a factor but I think the overall Atlantic conditions are going to matter most in what kind of season this will be. That's why we can't rule out 2013 as an analog though chances of that repeating itself are likely very slim.


I don't think that their number is reflective of a level of uncertainty for this season in particular. I thought they always go either 1 or 1.5 standard deviations above and below a fixed number. In this case, 14/7/3 with +/- one standard deviation.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#83 Postby ouragans » Thu May 25, 2017 5:26 pm



https://twitter.com/conagua_mx/status/867806834400342016


Seasonal forecast for Mexico: 11/4/2
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#84 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 26, 2017 7:58 am

TSR does an update to their prediction today correct? If so at what time?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#85 Postby ouragans » Fri May 26, 2017 9:26 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR does an update to their prediction today correct? If so at what time?


Yes it's planned for today but I can't find any info regarding what time, if there's a press conference, or anything. I keep refreshing their page since this morning. :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#86 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 26, 2017 12:47 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#87 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 26, 2017 1:01 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:TSR increases their numbers to 14/6/3.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastPreSeason2017.pdf


Looks like they went back to their 13 Dec 2016 prediction, but lower ACE. Still personally think it is too low, but they are likely to be correct more often than little ol me lol. :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2017 2:50 pm

The CSU June update will be released at 11 AM EDT on Thursday.



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/869907108598251520
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Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#89 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:01 am

CSU updated forecast just came out moments ago. They upped numbers to 14/6/2 with 100 ACE. These numbers include Arlene

Source: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 017-06.pdf


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#90 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:16 am

lol don't agree with those numbers but I guess it's possible.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#91 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:lol don't agree with those numbers but I guess it's possible.


Not surprising coming from Dr Phil, who has been fairly conservative with their numbers during the past 3 years or so.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#92 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:28 pm

A little above-normal numbers-wise, but slightly below-normal ACE-wise. Look for an upward bump in the numbers in their next update (vs. all at once today).
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#93 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:20 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:38 pm

Nothing really to add to this post, but welcome to the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season guys! :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#95 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:57 pm

This will be an interesting season to observe. Growing evidence to support an average to above average season, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby sflicht » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:15 am

Judith Curry's company CFAN released their 2017 seasonal forecast, which seems to be a newly developed model partly funded by one of their clients. Bottom line is ACE 130, with 3 US landfalls.

https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfan ... ne-season/
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#97 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:04 am

Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:21 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?


No, their update is on July 5th.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#99 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:22 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?


July 5th:

Next Seasonal Forecast Release Date:

July 5, 2017
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3

#100 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:27 pm

TSR goes up in the numbers in the July 4th forecast=17/7/3.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ly2017.pdf
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