All models are developing something next week. Looks like a disturbance near the Maldives is the cause. 12Z models have come in quite a bit stronger, with the EC now at 980mb at day 10. MU significantly lower than that, but it has quicker development
Major disagreement with regards ot the track. CMC takes this toward Malaysia while the MU takes it to Sri Lanka
Bay of Bengal about to get active again
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wxmann_91
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Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
What the heck... isn't this way out of season for that area? Is the NE monsoon just not manifesting itself in the BoB this past month?
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Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
yeah, I don't remember any January systems off hand.
Although, last year we had that hurricane in the CPAC nearly on the equator and was threatening Tarawa, as well as a January hurricane in the Azores
Been a lot of strange occurrences the last few years
Although, last year we had that hurricane in the CPAC nearly on the equator and was threatening Tarawa, as well as a January hurricane in the Azores
Been a lot of strange occurrences the last few years
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1900hurricane
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Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
Systems, especially significant ones, climatologically drop off fairly sharply after mid-December, but it isn't impossible to have one form this time of year. 1964 had a significant tropical cyclone in the back half of December. I think there may have been another significant one that may have crossed into January too, but I can't remember any details about that one, and it is possible that I mis-remembered.
It wouldn't be impossible, but these systems certainly aren't a dime a dozen.
It wouldn't be impossible, but these systems certainly aren't a dime a dozen.
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
Eye-balling the EC,it appears the system is seeded from a MT approx 5-6 N/ 90E. Think at this time
of year shear would be v/strong in the upper regions in the BOB. But stranger things have happened i guess.
of year shear would be v/strong in the upper regions in the BOB. But stranger things have happened i guess.
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wxman57
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Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
January BoB cyclones are about as common as those in April, September, or June. I did a study a few years back. Since 1977, there have been 4 January TCs in the BoB in January (5 in April, Sept, or June). Last one was in 2006.
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Re: Bay of Bengal about to get active again
It is rather odd that the Bay of Bengal is active and spinning out several storms this time of year when the area of the Indian Ocean to the south of it has been dead so far this season...does anyone know how the activity between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres corresponds? It is rare to have storms in the North Indian Ocean this time of year, but would it be feasible to have activity on both sides of the Equator?
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