Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139079
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:56 pm

Interesting research made about how Tropical Cyclones can get strong or maintain despite moderate wind shear.Other factors come into play to allow that to happen. Excerpt below.

Abstract
Although infrequent, tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify under moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). A potential hypothesis is that other factors—associated with both the TC and its environment—can help offset the effects of VWS and aid intensification. This hypothesis was tested with a large dataset of six-hourly best tracks and environmental diagnostics for global TCs between 1982–2014. Moderate VWS was objectively defined as 4.5–11.0 m s−1, which represents the 25th to 75th percentiles of the global distribution of 200–850 hPa VWS magnitude around TCs. Intensifying events (i.e., unique six-hourly data points) were compared against steady state events to determine which TC and environmental characteristics favored intensification under moderate VWS. This comparison showed that intensifying events were significantly stronger, closer to the equator, larger, and moving with a more westward motion than steady state events. Furthermore, intensifying events moved within environments characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures, greater midtropospheric water vapor, and more easterly VWS than steady state events. Storm-relative, shear-relative composites suggested that the coupling of water vapor, surface latent heat fluxes, and storm-relative flow asymmetries was conducive for less dry air intrusions and more symmetric rainfall in intensifying events. Lastly, the comparison showed no systematic differences between environmental wind profiles possibly due to the large temporal variability of VWS, which has been neglected in recent modeling studies.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -16-0350.1
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3873
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear

#2 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:50 am

I don't know that this study is telling us things we don't already know. It's already been established that (all other parameters being equal)...

1. Favorable factors such as higher mean OHC and higher mid tropospheric WV can offset the deleterious effects of moderate VWS.

2. VWS which is accompanied by dry air is generally much more detrimental to a TC than if not.

3. Moderate VWS that is strongly divergent is less detrimental that shear that is not (i.e. the shear is either convergent or neutral). In some cases, it has caused intensification, and significantly so.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear

#3 Postby Hammy » Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:31 pm

Isn't this essentially what happened to Matthew when it reached its peak?
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, cainjamin, MetroMike and 172 guests