Interesting research made about how Tropical Cyclones can get strong or maintain despite moderate wind shear.Other factors come into play to allow that to happen. Excerpt below.
Abstract
Although infrequent, tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify under moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). A potential hypothesis is that other factors—associated with both the TC and its environment—can help offset the effects of VWS and aid intensification. This hypothesis was tested with a large dataset of six-hourly best tracks and environmental diagnostics for global TCs between 1982–2014. Moderate VWS was objectively defined as 4.5–11.0 m s−1, which represents the 25th to 75th percentiles of the global distribution of 200–850 hPa VWS magnitude around TCs. Intensifying events (i.e., unique six-hourly data points) were compared against steady state events to determine which TC and environmental characteristics favored intensification under moderate VWS. This comparison showed that intensifying events were significantly stronger, closer to the equator, larger, and moving with a more westward motion than steady state events. Furthermore, intensifying events moved within environments characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures, greater midtropospheric water vapor, and more easterly VWS than steady state events. Storm-relative, shear-relative composites suggested that the coupling of water vapor, surface latent heat fluxes, and storm-relative flow asymmetries was conducive for less dry air intrusions and more symmetric rainfall in intensifying events. Lastly, the comparison showed no systematic differences between environmental wind profiles possibly due to the large temporal variability of VWS, which has been neglected in recent modeling studies.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -16-0350.1
Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear
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Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear
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Re: Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear
I don't know that this study is telling us things we don't already know. It's already been established that (all other parameters being equal)...
1. Favorable factors such as higher mean OHC and higher mid tropospheric WV can offset the deleterious effects of moderate VWS.
2. VWS which is accompanied by dry air is generally much more detrimental to a TC than if not.
3. Moderate VWS that is strongly divergent is less detrimental that shear that is not (i.e. the shear is either convergent or neutral). In some cases, it has caused intensification, and significantly so.
1. Favorable factors such as higher mean OHC and higher mid tropospheric WV can offset the deleterious effects of moderate VWS.
2. VWS which is accompanied by dry air is generally much more detrimental to a TC than if not.
3. Moderate VWS that is strongly divergent is less detrimental that shear that is not (i.e. the shear is either convergent or neutral). In some cases, it has caused intensification, and significantly so.
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Re: Research: Tropical Cyclones can get stronger with moderate shear
Isn't this essentially what happened to Matthew when it reached its peak?
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