2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 145.3 | NIO - 16.1

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#421 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:44 am

euro6208 wrote:WPAC numbers still low compared to normal years but # of storms developing is at 30. Incredible. Prove that la nina years or close to one tends to produce storms closer to land. Still very destructive.

This WPAC season has been fairly active, but weak. Lots of South China Sea storms but we haven’t had a classical Philippine Sea Super Typhoon. Reminds me of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 2011-2016, when it seemed the only favorable spots were the subtropics and BoC (in the WPAC’s case, the favorable spots are the subtropics and SCS).
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#422 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:24 pm

Where is the ACE at in the ATL now after Rina?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#423 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:09 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
euro6208 wrote:WPAC numbers still low compared to normal years but # of storms developing is at 30. Incredible. Prove that la nina years or close to one tends to produce storms closer to land. Still very destructive.

This WPAC season has been fairly active, but weak. Lots of South China Sea storms but we haven’t had a classical Philippine Sea Super Typhoon. Reminds me of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 2011-2016, when it seemed the only favorable spots were the subtropics and BoC (in the WPAC’s case, the favorable spots are the subtropics and SCS).


The last time the Philippines didnt experience even a single typhoon landfall (10 min) was in 2005. (Roke doesnt look like a (1min) cat1 typhoon at Phil landfall).

Coincidentally, 2005 was the year when Atlantic also went berserk with multiple major CONUS impact.

IMO, 2005 is also quite an analog to 2017, sort of.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#424 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:11 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Where is the ACE at in the ATL now after Rina?


At 229.5

Source: http://wx.graphics/tropical/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#425 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:27 pm

I've updated numbers based on CSU page, not sure I trust Maue's results.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.5725 | EPAC - 98.1975 | WPAC - 156.03 | NIO - 3.54

#426 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:31 pm

Here's what I have. CSU is very close to my numbers except in the WPac, where it lags by over 10 units.

NAtl: 226.5725
EPac: 98.1975
WPac: 156.03
NIO: 3.54
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#427 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:13 pm

With half of November almost through, barring something crazy in wpac (doesn't appear likely) the NATL will finish with the most ACE in 2017
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#428 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:15 pm

The biggest WPac December in terms of ACE came in 1997 with about 66 units. That all came from Paka though. 1986 also had a similar amount of December ACE contributed by a few different storms. Both of these seasons were above average in activity though, and third place is well below these years (~36 December ACE in 1990). Unless something crazy with no historical precedent happens, it appears a foregone conclusion that the NAtl will be this year's ACE champion.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#429 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:00 am

So the WPAC's run ends in 2017 just like 1998, 1999, and 2010. 31 TC this season which is still incredible but ACE is sorely lacking. Huge break for residents in the basin. The WPAC will return.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#430 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:24 pm

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#431 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:02 pm

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 143.8 | NIO - 3.9

#432 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:23 am

1900hurricane wrote:The biggest WPac December in terms of ACE came in 1997 with about 66 units. That all came from Paka though. 1986 also had a similar amount of December ACE contributed by a few different storms. Both of these seasons were above average in activity though, and third place is well below these years (~36 December ACE in 1990). Unless something crazy with no historical precedent happens, it appears a foregone conclusion that the NAtl will be this year's ACE champion.


Looks like the WPAC lost this year. 4th time in world history this happens and all loses to the Atlantic and those year were in the satellite era, 1998, 1999, 2010...After recon ended in 1987.... and now 2017 vs The Atlantic (Recon ever since)...Wow is that fair...:lol: benefiting
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 145.3 | NIO - 16.1

#433 Postby NotoSans » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:14 am

WPAC's recon era (ended in 1987) coincided with ATL's inactive period (ended in the early 90s), which would be another possible explanation why WPAC loses to ATL only after it is no longer covered by recon.

Besides, tropical cyclone activity of the two basins seems to be inversely correlated. During La Nina events, ATL becomes more active while WPAC tends to produce weak, short-liivd storms. Meanwhile, during El Nino events, ATL becomes inactive while WPAC tends to produce strong, long-lived storms. That would explain why WPAC loses to ATL instead of the other basins.

And, even WPAC had been covered by recon in these four years, it would still have been ATL's victory, given that WPAC was defeated by a large margin (30 units in 1998, 68 units in 1999, 44 units in 2010 and 81 units in 2017).
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