2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[mrbagyo]

N. ATLANTIC has gone ACExplosive.
This thing typically happen during La Nina

[weathaguyry]

Truly insane, I wonder if we can be pushing last year's total by the time Irma, Jose, and Katia are done

[RL3AO]

The Atlantic has never been more active during the satellite era, if you go by ACE.

[RL3AO]

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 54.21 160
Jose (12L) 9.7675 130
Katia (13L) 5.4425 90

Season Total 95.635

[JtSmarts]

I keep thinking about one of our posters who kept mentioning his theory of equilibrium during the MH drought.

[NDG]

N. ATLANTIC has gone ACExplosive.
This thing typically happen during La Nina

That's why I never like neutral, or cool neutral years, the atmosphere can be as ripe as a La Nina year, and to make it worst the protective ridge over the Southern US is not there most neutral years unlike some La Nina years.

[Steve]

I believe I was told that hyperactivity would be approximately 175 ACE. I guessed 106 for the year in the contest. I wouldn't be surprised to get another 20-25 between Irma and Jose. With several prime weeks to go, 2017 has greatly exceeded my quantity and quality expectations. No harm in admitting you're wrong when you are IMHO.

[1900hurricane]

I have 99.865 units of ACE for the NAtl as of 00Z September 9. If Jose is reanalyzed as 140 kt for 18Z September 8 and everything else remains the same, that would push it over 100. Regardless, that pushes us above the WPac's 93.0775 for the current global lead.

[Ptarmigan]

N. ATLANTIC has gone ACExplosive.
This thing typically happen during La Nina

There is not even La Nina at this time. I wonder what conditions lead to this.

[wxmann_91]

I have 99.865 units of ACE for the NAtl as of 00Z September 9. If Jose is reanalyzed as 140 kt for 18Z September 8 and everything else remains the same, that would push it over 100. Regardless, that pushes us above the WPac's 93.0775 for the current global lead.

We're #1! We're #1! We're #1!

[AxaltaRacing24]

N. ATLANTIC has gone ACExplosive.
This thing typically happen during La Nina

There is not even La Nina at this time. I wonder what conditions lead to this.

If you look at shear during la nina, vs el nino, vs neutral, you would see that cool neutral years are the most dangerous.

[euro6208]

I have 99.865 units of ACE for the NAtl as of 00Z September 9. If Jose is reanalyzed as 140 kt for 18Z September 8 and everything else remains the same, that would push it over 100. Regardless, that pushes us above the WPac's 93.0775 for the current global lead.

We're #1! We're #1! We're #1!

Wouldn't it be even more incredible if the Atlantic beats the WPAC by years end (It did it 3 times and first since 2010)? With Harvey becoming the first major hurricane to hit the U.S in 12 years, Irma the strongest hurricane since 2005, Jose almost becoming a Cat 5 (never has the Atlantic had two Cat 5's at the same time), and Katia almost making it three majors at the same time, this is their chance.

But it will be very hard as those years, 1998, 1999, and 2010, had a moderate la nina. Nothing this year.

[RL3AO]

It's starting to look like Jose could rack up 40 ACE on its own. Considering it's only September 9th, a hyper-active season looks very possible.

[Alyono]

check out a spatial map of the EPAC. Looks very niñaish without a warm EPAC MDR

[KWT]

Yeah models are really holding Jose now, models suggesting it holds on for at least the next 10 days so quite possible we could see a pretty hefty amount of ACE from Jose as well. Also models are producing another CV system, though that should not be as long lasting as the previous couple, but probably enough to at least add another 10-15 units. Probably heading towards hyperactive at least in terms of ACE.

[WeatherGuesser]

- Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the first eight named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season (Arlene-Harvey) combined
- Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy in a 24-hour period on record, breaking old record set by Allen (1980)
- 61.8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy units so far – the 3rd most by an Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966) – trailing only Isabel (63.3) and Ivan (70.4)
- Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 15 entire Atlantic hurricane seasons in the satellite era (since 1966)


https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/m ... ecords.pdf

[Kazmit]

Wow. This season's ACE is already above climatology and it's only September 10th.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

[RL3AO]

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 64.41 160
Jose (12L) 20.49 135
Katia (13L) 6.055 90

Season Total 117.17

Looks like Ivan will remain king, but Irma gave it a run! (Note: Irma's ACE will probably come down a little bit when the TCR comes out)

[BYG Jacob]

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 64.41 160
Jose (12L) 20.49 135
Katia (13L) 6.055 90

Season Total 117.17

Looks like Ivan will remain king, but Irma gave it a run! (Note: Irma's ACE will probably come down a little bit when the TCR comes out)

You thinking they knock down her intensity a bit while she was over the leewards?

[Ptarmigan]

Real-Time North Atlantic Ocean Statistics by Storm for 2017
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

ACE is 117.1.