2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 116.1 | NIO - 3.9

#401 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:21 am

Up to 142.86 with Lan contributing 19.7875.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#402 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:36 pm

Sticking with Colorado State for now, trying to understand the differences between it and Maue's site. Maue has higher ACE for both the Atlantic and WPAC.

2017 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]

Western N Pacific 147.38
Eastern + Cent N Pac 97.9225
North Atlantic 226.62
North Indian 3.945
Southern Hemisphere 98.8
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#403 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:10 pm

Alyono wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:So, if O gets us to 220-225, what chance is there for the other 30-40?


likely late October or November Caribbean development



On Deck as 93L?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#404 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:50 pm

An additional 20's to 30's ACE for future Saola if the GFS and HWRF are right.


Tropical Storm 27W
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#405 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:48 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Alyono wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:So, if O gets us to 220-225, what chance is there for the other 30-40?


likely late October or November Caribbean development



On Deck as 93L?


Looks like it's going to move too fast. May only get 5-7 ACE, not the 30 had it doodled
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#406 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:27 pm

Looks like the ATL's going to be the clear ACE winner this year... wow, when was the last time the NATL beat the WPAC in terms of ACE?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#407 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:52 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Looks like the ATL's going to be the clear ACE winner this year... wow, when was the last time the NATL beat the WPAC in terms of ACE?

2010. Also happened in 1998 and 1999.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#408 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:23 am

Well, if the ATL is done for the year, can the WPAC still catch up? How often do they have later season systems?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#409 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:13 am

Well we likely won’t tie or beat 2005, and 1933 but there is still time to maybe pick up a few units and tie or beat 2004, 1995, 1926, and 1893. 1893 which is in 3rd place has 231 ACE units by the way.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#410 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:28 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Well, if the ATL is done for the year, can the WPAC still catch up? How often do they have later season systems?

Unlikely the Atlantic is completely done. The average final named storm dissipates around November 5 or so. We should get at least one more named storm before the season’s over, but it may not produce very much ACE.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#411 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:31 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Well, if the ATL is done for the year, can the WPAC still catch up? How often do they have later season systems?


It's possible but hard to do. WPAC often can produce Cat 5s in Nov that has long tracks (Haiyan for example) but you would need a few of those to catch up. At least 2. Not impossible but not a likely scenario either. But WPac season goes year round so Dec is still in play.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#412 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:48 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Well, if the ATL is done for the year, can the WPAC still catch up? How often do they have later season systems?


Maybe. The WPAC season doesn't end until Dec 31.

Looking back at 1998, 1999, and 2010, the margin between the Atlantic and WPAC is 25, 63, and 50. It's very hard to take out the WPAC. Even the 2004 and 2005 seasons were very active yet were outclassed by the WPAC.

Using October 25 as a benchmark...

1998 had 5 TS, 1 TY and 1 MT (Occurred in December and hit the P.I).

1999 Had 2 TS, 1 TY (Occurring in Nov).

2010 went full quiet the rest of the year.

Those 3 years had a strong La nina at the surface. Not this year.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#413 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:50 pm

Where is the Atlantic ACE now? Philippe didn't contribute much ACE but how much is it below 2004?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#414 Postby NotSparta » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:26 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Where is the Atlantic ACE now? Philippe didn't contribute much ACE but how much is it below 2004?


I think it's about the same of 2004
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#415 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:32 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Where is the Atlantic ACE now? Philippe didn't contribute much ACE but how much is it below 2004?


227.5 according to Ryan Maue for the season

Source: http://wx.graphics/tropical/


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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#416 Postby Boriken » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:33 pm

Is there a ACE over land number? I am curious because this season had so many landfalls (Just got my power back). Or at least a calculation of cyclonic energy dumped over land.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#417 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:00 am

Thread seems to have drifted down the list into Nowehere's Ville.

Current numbers?

No hope now to break 250 I take it?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#418 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:34 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Thread seems to have drifted down the list into Nowehere's Ville.

Current numbers?

No hope now to break 250 I take it?


It's very unlikely now heading into mid November. Think we finish at #3 (assuming we count 1933 as #1) and #2 in modern era. 225-230 range. Subtropical development could happen but they are not counted towards ACE.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#419 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:35 am

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Thread seems to have drifted down the list into Nowehere's Ville.

Current numbers?

No hope now to break 250 I take it?


It's very unlikely now heading into mid November. Think we finish at #3 (assuming we count 1933 as #1) and #2 in modern era. 225-230 range. Subtropical development could happen but they are not counted towards ACE.

Subtropical ACE has been included since 2012, but I agree, seems unlikely we will reach 250.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 133.9 | NIO - 3.9

#420 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:41 am

WPAC numbers still low compared to normal years but # of storms developing is at 30. Incredible. Prove that la nina years or close to one tends to produce storms closer to land. Still very destructive.
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