2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[cycloneye]

Franklin has at the time of this post 3.0125 ACE units.Let's see at the end how much it contributes to the North Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.

[Ntxw]

Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.

It's been adjusted to 3.7 units for both CSU and Wxbell which puts the Atlantic at 7.825.

[cycloneye]

Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.

It's been adjusted to 3.7 units for both CSU and Wxbell which puts the Atlantic at 7.825.

Edited.

[euro6208]

Banyan at 2.52.

It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.

[1900hurricane]

Banyan at 2.52.

It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.

How? Having tabbed out the best track data, I have Banyan just passing 1*10**4 kt**2 at 12Z.

[euro6208]

Banyan at 2.52.

It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.

How? Having tabbed out the best track data, I have Banyan just passing 1*10**4 kt**2 at 12Z.

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php I got the data from here.

[1900hurricane]

Ahh, looks like Maue's numbers are doing weird things again. I wish I knew why his numbers run so hot sometimes.

[Ntxw]

Yeah I haven't been able to figure out his methods. But in the end once it finalizes it's usually where it should be, just real time as it updates seems to be off a little.

Relative to normal the NHEM is running about 85-87% of normal. WPAC about 70%, EPAC 130%, and Atlantic 60% of normal to date ACE

[cycloneye]

North Atlantic may get plenty of ACE units with what may come out of Invest 91L.Looks like it will be a classic Cabo Verde longtracker.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Western N Pacific 70.1625
Eastern + Cent N Pac 72.945
14W BANYAN 80 90 8.7375

[Hammy]

Not sure where else to put this so I'll put it here--I did a quick survey of the last four years, and from 2013-16 the average is September 25--half the season's ACE still has yet to occur by that point.

[1900hurricane]

Per the numbers I keep, a couple of things happened by the end of the August 15 UTC day. First, the WPac has caught up to and just barely passed the EPac for the NHem ACE lead (74.065 vs 73.1025, respectively). Also, the NAtl has passed 10*10**4 kt**2, ending the day with 10.635.

*EDIT to fix slight mis-calculation.

[RL3AO]

Here's what I have using ATCF.

Code: Select all

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Hurricane Gert (08L)
       Time    Intensity    Adv. ACE    Storm ACE
-----------  -----------  ----------  -----------
 2017081318           35      0.1225       0.1225
 2017081400           40      0.16         0.2825
 2017081406           40      0.16         0.4425
 2017081412           50      0.25         0.6925
 2017081418           60      0.36         1.0525
 2017081500           65      0.4225       1.475
 2017081506           65      0.4225       1.8975
 2017081512           65      0.4225       2.32
 2017081518           70      0.49         2.81
 2017081600           75      0.5625       3.3725


Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name                  System ACE    Max Intensity
------------------  ------------  ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR]        0.81                 45
Bret (02L)                0.6875               40
Cindy (03L)               1.55                 50
Four (04L)                0                    25
Don (05L)                 0.6875               40
Emily (06L)               0.6075               45
Franklin (07L)            3.685                75
Gert (08L)                3.3725               75

Season Total             11.4


If the latest NHC forecast verified, it would add 4.25 additional ACE. That would put Gert at 7.63 and the August 4 - 18 period at 11.315, which would somehow verify Phil Klotzbach's above-average two week forecast that appeared doomed.

[1900hurricane]

Here's what I have using ATCF.

Code: Select all

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Hurricane Gert (08L)
       Time    Intensity    Adv. ACE    Storm ACE
-----------  -----------  ----------  -----------
 2017081318           35      0.1225       0.1225
 2017081400           40      0.16         0.2825
 2017081406           40      0.16         0.4425
 2017081412           50      0.25         0.6925
 2017081418           60      0.36         1.0525
 2017081500           65      0.4225       1.475
 2017081506           65      0.4225       1.8975
 2017081512           65      0.4225       2.32
 2017081518           70      0.49         2.81
 2017081600           75      0.5625       3.3725


Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name                  System ACE    Max Intensity
------------------  ------------  ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR]        0.81                 45
Bret (02L)                0.6875               40
Cindy (03L)               1.55                 50
Four (04L)                0                    25
Don (05L)                 0.6875               40
Emily (06L)               0.6075               45
Franklin (07L)            3.685                75
Gert (08L)                3.3725               75

Season Total             11.4


If the latest NHC forecast verified, it would add 4.25 additional ACE. That would put Gert at 7.63 and the August 4 - 18 period at 11.315, which would somehow verify Phil Klotzbach's above-average two week forecast that appeared doomed.

Careful with your Emily calculation. The 45 kt maximum intensity was a 14Z off-hour fix, meaning it shouldn't count towards the system's ACE.

[RL3AO]

[
Careful with your Emily calculation. The 45 kt maximum intensity was a 14Z off-hour fix, meaning it shouldn't count towards the system's ACE.

I fixed that bug, but apparently, it was in a different script.

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name                  System ACE    Max Intensity
------------------  ------------  ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR]        0.81                 45
Bret (02L)                0.6875               40
Cindy (03L)               1.55                 50
Four (04L)                0                    25
Don (05L)                 0.6875               40
Emily (06L)               0.405                45
Franklin (07L)            3.685                75
Gert (08L)                3.3725               75

Season Total             11.1975

Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.

[1900hurricane]

Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name                  System ACE    Max Intensity
------------------  ------------  ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR]        0.81                 45
Bret (02L)                0.6875               40
Cindy (03L)               1.55                 50
Four (04L)                0                    25
Don (05L)                 0.6875               40
Emily (06L)               0.405                45
Franklin (07L)            3.685                75
Gert (08L)                3.3725               75

Season Total             11.1975

Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.

Looks good, those are the numbers I have.

[Hammy]

Code: Select all

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name                  System ACE    Max Intensity
------------------  ------------  ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR]        0.81                 45
Bret (02L)                0.6875               40
Cindy (03L)               1.55                 50
Four (04L)                0                    25
Don (05L)                 0.6875               40
Emily (06L)               0.405                45
Franklin (07L)            3.685                75
Gert (08L)                3.3725               75

Season Total             11.1975

Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.

Looks good, those are the numbers I have.

When was Emily 45kt? Advisory archive has 40.