2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[RL3AO]

We are close to last years ace total already. Last year we had about 90 ace after this point.

Atlantic probably global leader this year

Maybe the WPac can surprise us this fall, but I doubt it with ENSO looking the way it is

[Alyono]

PTC Fifteen should gain about 35 to 40 ace by itself

With Jose still cranking and a small contribution from Lee, Atlantic could be approaching 200 by the end of the month

[KWT]

Very active hurricane season, probably crank a major in October as well given we are going into a La Nina state. Top 10 season highly probable now at least.

As for the WPAC, still way too early to tell, you could quite easily get 2-3 Cat-5s out of the back end of the season in the WPAC and that gap we have at the moment will be gone almost as fast as it went up. Not saying that will happen, but you never quite know with the WPAC, anything is possible!

[Ntxw]

WPAC seldom finishes below 200, it's hard beating that basin. Even the wild crazy 2015 EPAC season couldn't do it, though the Atlantic might due to the adverse relationship with ENSO, still not easy feat. WPAC "busy" season is often late October going in November unlike the others.

[NotSparta]

PTC Fifteen should gain about 35 to 40 ace by itself

With Jose still cranking and a small contribution from Lee, Atlantic could be approaching 200 by the end of the month

What are your thoughts on the total?

[RL3AO]

We may be an active October away from beating 2005s ACE total. 250 isn't a crazy thought.

[Alyono]

PTC Fifteen should gain about 35 to 40 ace by itself

With Jose still cranking and a small contribution from Lee, Atlantic could be approaching 200 by the end of the month

What are your thoughts on the total?

if we have any type of active total, somewhere between 240 and 270 at this point

[euro6208]

WPAC seldom finishes below 200, it's hard beating that basin. Even the wild crazy 2015 EPAC season couldn't do it, though the Atlantic might due to the adverse relationship with ENSO, still not easy feat. WPAC "busy" season is often late October going in November unlike the others.

Typhoon season is all year so while the EPAC and Atlantic ends in November, the WPAC finishes on the last day of the year. Every second counts.

[1900hurricane]

WPAC seldom finishes below 200, it's hard beating that basin. Even the wild crazy 2015 EPAC season couldn't do it, though the Atlantic might due to the adverse relationship with ENSO, still not easy feat. WPAC "busy" season is often late October going in November unlike the others.

Typhoon season is all year so while the EPAC and Atlantic ends in November, the WPAC finishes on the last day of the year. Every second counts.

While that is true, second year La Ninas (which is what we may be headed towards) often shut down the WPac early. The three most recent occurrences, 2011, 2008, and 1999, all had only 20 points of ACE or less after the completion of September. All three of those years finished with sub-200 ACE because of the late season shutdown.

Unrelated, but we're going to have to start watching the NIO again soon.

[NotSparta]

ACE Update:

ATL: 134.1

EPAC: 91.3

WPAC: 105.3

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

ACE Update:

ATL: 134.1

EPAC: 91.3

WPAC: 105.3

Ace is likely to reach the 200 mark by late September or early October...... it is a active season expect more active seasons to come

[Steve]

ACE Update:

ATL: 134.1

EPAC: 91.3

WPAC: 105.3

Ace is likely to reach the 200 mark by late September or early October...... it is a active season expect more active seasons to come

Maybe. We've only ever had 5 seasons of ACE in the modern era - 2005 (250), 1995 (228), 2004 (225), 1950 (211) and 1961 (205). I don't think there is enough energy left in the basin to add another 100 points as some were pointing out we might (or even 150). We'd almost have to have 4 or 5 long track, long lasting majors to reach those numbers. It could happen, but I don't think 2005's record is in jeopardy as opposed to what some other people have been saying. As always, I could be wrong.

[NotSparta]

ACE update:

ATL: 136.2

EPAC: 92.1

WPAC: 105.9

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe. We've only ever had 5 seasons of ACE in the modern era - 2005 (250), 1995 (228), 2004 (225), 1950 (211) and 1961 (205). I don't think there is enough energy left in the basin to add another 100 points as some were pointing out we might (or even 150). We'd almost have to have 4 or 5 long track, long lasting majors to reach those numbers. It could happen, but I don't think 2005's record is in jeopardy as opposed to what some other people have been saying. As always, I could be wrong.

Maria may garner over 45 ACE by herself.... Jose would linger for a little while. These would bring the total close to 200, if not exceeding it. Irma racked up approximately 67 units in under 2 weeks. However, I think the North Atlantic wouldn't exceed the West Pacific this year, with it looking to become a "late bloomer" season akin to 2013----long trackers here as well. By the way, when was the last time the NAtl, WPac and EPac seasons were near or above normal?

[Steve]

We could. I left out the "200" in 5 seasons over "200". I think RL3AO has the data.

[RL3AO]

200 should still happen. It's hard to imagine not being near 180 to 200 by the end of September. I think 2005 is probably safe. Jose isn't putting up the numbers I was thinking a few days ago.

[Buck]

I did the math in my head—so excuse any error—but if Jose lingers at the NHC's forecasted strength, he should top Igor's ACE.

[NotSparta]

ACE update:

ATL: 137.2

EPAC: 92.7

WPAC: 106.2

[Hammy]

200 should still happen. It's hard to imagine not being near 180 to 200 by the end of September. I think 2005 is probably safe. Jose isn't putting up the numbers I was thinking a few days ago.

200 would exceed 2004 right? And I think there were many early-season comparisons with this year and '04 as well.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

200 should still happen. It's hard to imagine not being near 180 to 200 by the end of September. I think 2005 is probably safe. Jose isn't putting up the numbers I was thinking a few days ago.

200 would exceed 2004 right? And I think there were many early-season comparisons with this year and '04 as well.

2004 was at 227, while having only 15 named storms

2005, on the other hand, had 27/28 and an ACE index of 250