2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907015294945652736




"In only 5 years has the Atlantic generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy by Sep. 10 than in 2017: 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995 & 2005."

[cycloneye]

Wow,I am back to see these incredible numbers and it has been has done in a short period of time.

[BYG Jacob]

Unfortunately I think that ACE number will end up significantly higher. It just feels like 2005 where everything that popped up developed.

[Hammy]

It's quite amazing where we're at considering just about two weeks ago most here (myself included) were expecting much of the first third or two to be relatively quiet. We've actually gotten to a point by the peak where the season could suddenly shut off for the rest of the year and we'd still end up at or slightly above average.

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
#Irma now has more ACE than 2002 Atlantic hurricane season - she has now produced more ACE than 18 full seasons in satellite era (>=1966).

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907229178629545984

[euro6208]

Goes to show how slow many seasons are.

Can anyone post the ACE for those 18 seasons that Irma beaten?

[RL3AO]

Goes to show how slow many seasons are.

Can anyone post the ACE for those 18 seasons that Irma beaten?

Year NS NSD HU HUD MH MHD ACE ▾
1983 4 14.5 3 3.5 1 0.25 17
1977 7 17.75 5 6.75 1 1 27
1994 7 28.75 3 7.25 0 0 32
1982 6 18.5 2 5.75 1 1.25 32
1987 7 37.25 3 5 1 0.5 34
1991 8 24.25 4 8.25 2 1.25 36
1986 6 23.25 4 10.5 0 0 36
1972 7 30.75 3 6.25 0 0 36
2013 14 42.25 2 3.25 0 0 36
1993 8 30 4 9.5 1 0.75 39
1970 10 30.25 5 6.75 2 1 40
1997 8 30 3 9.5 1 2.25 41
1968 8 33.75 5 11.75 0 0 45
1973 8 37.75 4 10 1 0.25 48
2009 9 30 3 12 2 3.5 53
1978 11 40.5 5 13.5 2 3.5 62
2015 11 43.5 4 12 2 4 63
2002 12 57 4 10.75 2 3 67
2014 8 35 6 17.75 2 3.75 67

Full data set is here.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

[RL3AO]

As Irma will soon become non-tropical, here is the operational best track. Without a doubt the most impressive Atlantic storm of the 2010s.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 95 0.9025 2.72
2017090100 100 1 3.72
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.6225
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.525
2017090118 100 1 6.525
2017090200 100 1 7.525
2017090206 100 1 8.525
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.4275
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.33
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.2325
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.135
2017090312 100 1 13.135
2017090318 100 1 14.135
2017090400 100 1 15.135
2017090406 100 1 16.135
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.2375
2017090418 115 1.3225 18.56
2017090500 120 1.44 20
2017090506 135 1.8225 21.8225
2017090512 155 2.4025 24.225
2017090518 160 2.56 26.785
2017090600 160 2.56 29.345
2017090606 160 2.56 31.905
2017090612 160 2.56 34.465
2017090618 160 2.56 37.025
2017090700 160 2.56 39.585
2017090706 155 2.4025 41.9875
2017090712 150 2.25 44.2375
2017090718 150 2.25 46.4875
2017090800 150 2.25 48.7375
2017090806 140 1.96 50.6975
2017090812 130 1.69 52.3875
2017090818 135 1.8225 54.21
2017090900 140 1.96 56.17
2017090906 140 1.96 58.13
2017090912 115 1.3225 59.4525
2017090918 110 1.21 60.6625
2017091000 105 1.1025 61.765
2017091006 115 1.3225 63.0875
2017091012 115 1.3225 64.41
2017091018 100 1 65.41
2017091100 90 0.81 66.22
2017091106 75 0.5625 66.7825
2017091112 60 0.36 67.1425

[1900hurricane]

Looks like you lost 1983 in there.

*EDIT: comment no longer valid.

[cycloneye]

Irma almost there to pass Ivan but will it occur?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907248617718636544

[BYG Jacob]

Irma almost there to pass Ivan but will it occur?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907248617718636544

she's weakening too quickly, Ivan will remain the ACE king for now.

[CrazyC83]

Irma almost there to pass Ivan but will it occur?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907248617718636544

Probably needs to regenerate in the western Atlantic to do that - do any models show the trough reviving?

[BYG Jacob]

Irma almost there to pass Ivan but will it occur?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907248617718636544

Probably needs to regenerate in the western Atlantic to do that - do any models show the trough reviving?

Not that I know of, its possible given the water is warm enough, but I think that far north she'll just get sheared into oblivion.

[1900hurricane]

ACE so far this September in the NAtl is already higher than any of the other basins for the year. We're less than 4 points to 100 on the month, making it the first 100 ACE month in the NAtl since September 2004 and the first globally since August 2015 in the WPac.

[Patrick99]

Unfortunately I think that ACE number will end up significantly higher. It just feels like 2005 where everything that popped up developed.

Yeah, I really don't think we are done with this season. The ACE could be higher....I'm not sure we are even done with major hurricanes...I'm guessing at least 2 more, one later in September and one in October.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately I think that ACE number will end up significantly higher. It just feels like 2005 where everything that popped up developed.

Yeah, I really don't think we are done with this season. The ACE could be higher....I'm not sure we are even done with major hurricanes...I'm guessing at least 2 more, one later in September and one in October.

October has produced some very intense hurricanes like Mitch, Wilma, and Matthew. You got to keep an eye on them in October.

[1900hurricane]

By my personal numbers (which I have put in the header of this post), the WPac crossed 100*10**4 kt**2 at 18Z. The NAtl's month of September will do the same at 06Z.

[Emmett_Brown]

Considering Jose may strengthen off the E coast this week, combined with 96 and 97 developing in the MDR, we could get another ACE boost shortly. A total of 200 ace this season seems within reach.

[RL3AO]

Irma and Jose combined are going to produce more than an average season worth of ACE. That's incredible.

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 67.505 160
Jose (12L) 31.5225 135
Katia (13L) 6.055 90
Fourteen (14L) 0 30

Season Total 131.298

[Alyono]

We are close to last years ace total already. Last year we had about 90 ace after this point.

Atlantic probably global leader this year