2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#341 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:17 am

2017's ACE is incredible, close to 2004---high ACE per storm. So far, the NAtl season has 11 units per storm (ACE/storms). The hyperactive version of 2013. Both 2017 and 2004 do not have an unusual number of named storms (well below 20) yet their yearly ACE are above 200. Certainly, 2017 will pass 200 and if more long-trackers come, even 2005. 2017, albeit having the record low ACE for the season's first five named storms, has had the most number of storms with an ACE over 40, surpassing even 2004. Without those short-lived weaklings, the named storm count would decrease by 5 yet the ACE would remain above 190. Astonishing.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#342 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:16 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:2017's ACE is incredible, close to 2004---high ACE per storm. So far, the NAtl season has 11 units per storm (ACE/storms). The hyperactive version of 2013. Both 2017 and 2004 do not have an unusual number of named storms (well below 20) yet their yearly ACE are above 200. Certainly, 2017 will pass 200 and if more long-trackers come, even 2005. 2017, albeit having the record low ACE for the season's first five named storms, has had the most number of storms with an ACE over 40, surpassing even 2004. Without those short-lived weaklings, the named storm count would decrease by 5 yet the ACE would remain above 190. Astonishing.


What's so incredible about it? For the Atlantic, it is incredible because it is breaking their YTD ACE and might break their record of 250 set in 2005. It's locally.

Worldwide, it's beating the WPAC so that's adding another convo. I bet if the WPAC was leading, this convo wouldn't be so much entertaining.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#343 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:28 am

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:2017's ACE is incredible, close to 2004---high ACE per storm. So far, the NAtl season has 11 units per storm (ACE/storms). The hyperactive version of 2013. Both 2017 and 2004 do not have an unusual number of named storms (well below 20) yet their yearly ACE are above 200. Certainly, 2017 will pass 200 and if more long-trackers come, even 2005. 2017, albeit having the record low ACE for the season's first five named storms, has had the most number of storms with an ACE over 40, surpassing even 2004. Without those short-lived weaklings, the named storm count would decrease by 5 yet the ACE would remain above 190. Astonishing.


What's so incredible about it? For the Atlantic, it is incredible because it is breaking their YTD ACE and might break their record of 250 set in 2005. It's locally.

Worldwide, it's beating the WPAC so that's adding another convo. I bet if the WPAC was leading, this convo wouldn't be so much entertaining.

Btw, maybe you should try to lessen the western Pacific comparisons. We know that the basin is the benchmark for hyperactivity.

However, if Irma were in the WPAC it would surpass super typhoons Fengshen and Ioke (?) for longest super typhoon winds. **a little OT: yes, there may have been underestimates but overestimates can happen too: Arthur 2014 was looking like a borderline cat 2-3, recon found only cat 1 winds** Irma would produce more ACE than perhaps any other storm. The Atlantic has produced more ACE this month than any other month in any other basin on record.

I'm impressed by the WPAC (esp 1997, 2004 & 2015) but exceeding 300 isn't too uncommon here. And to think the Atlantic may reach 300 with less than 20 storms: never happened in the WPac. Remove the first 5 storm in the Atlantic *again* and you have 200 ACE with only 8 named storms! The highest ACE producer in the WPac may have been Fengshen. Additionally, we haven't had a 40 ACE *keep mentioning it* typhoon since Nangka 2015---and prior to that was Megi in 2010 perhaps. The Atlantic has had 3 storms over 40 for the first time post-1960, the last time in the WPac this may have happened was 1997.

I'm impressed by the WPac, again, and the NAtl as well. Don't need to rub in to all of us how active and "great" the WPac is, everyone in S2K knows that. :lol:
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#344 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:39 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:2017's ACE is incredible, close to 2004---high ACE per storm. So far, the NAtl season has 11 units per storm (ACE/storms). The hyperactive version of 2013. Both 2017 and 2004 do not have an unusual number of named storms (well below 20) yet their yearly ACE are above 200. Certainly, 2017 will pass 200 and if more long-trackers come, even 2005. 2017, albeit having the record low ACE for the season's first five named storms, has had the most number of storms with an ACE over 40, surpassing even 2004. Without those short-lived weaklings, the named storm count would decrease by 5 yet the ACE would remain above 190. Astonishing.


What's so incredible about it? For the Atlantic, it is incredible because it is breaking their YTD ACE and might break their record of 250 set in 2005. It's locally.

Worldwide, it's beating the WPAC so that's adding another convo. I bet if the WPAC was leading, this convo wouldn't be so much entertaining.

Btw, maybe you should try to lessen the western Pacific comparisons. We know that the basin is the benchmark for hyperactivity.

However, if Irma were in the WPAC it would surpass super typhoons Fengshen and Ioke (?) for longest super typhoon winds. **a little OT: yes, there may have been underestimates but overestimates can happen too: Arthur 2014 was looking like a borderline cat 2-3, recon found only cat 1 winds** Irma would produce more ACE than perhaps any other storm. The Atlantic has produced more ACE this month than any other month in any other basin on record.

I'm impressed by the WPAC (esp 1997, 2004 & 2015) but exceeding 300 isn't too uncommon here. And to think the Atlantic may reach 300 with less than 20 storms: never happened in the WPac. Remove the first 5 storm in the Atlantic *again* and you have 200 ACE with only 8 named storms! The highest ACE producer in the WPac may have been Fengshen. Additionally, we haven't had a 40 ACE *keep mentioning it* typhoon since Nangka 2015---and prior to that was Megi in 2010 perhaps. The Atlantic has had 3 storms over 40 for the first time post-1960, the last time in the WPac this may have happened was 1997.

I'm impressed by the WPac, again, and the NAtl as well. Don't need to rub in to all of us how active and "great" the WPac is, everyone in S2K knows that. :lol:


Remember though that after 1987, all typhoons are only estimated so the peak is likely way below what recon would have found. Irma and Maria proved it. Dvorak fails. So we will never know how strong they got and how long they actually stayed at it. Tsk Tsk...Missing ACE's since 1987. All those typhoons had 7.0 to 8.0 on the dvorak scale and out from nowhere Patricia, WIlma and Irma and Maria (since there so significant this year in the Atl). How many 7.0's to 8.0 in the WHEM compared to ours?

It's Facts (recon) vs. Fiction (Satellite). :roll: Yet everyone acts like it's Facts vs Facts.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#345 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:26 am

give it up about the WPAC!

Dvorak both over estimates and under estimates. Remember the 6.5 estimates of Rammussen as it approached the Philippines? At least 1 full T number too high based upon surface obs from the eye showing the minimum pressure was no lower than 959mb

The Atlantic had the most active month of any basin in the world ever. Eventually, another basin will break the record
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#346 Postby NotSparta » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:35 am

ACE update:

ATL: 203

EPAC: 97.4

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#347 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:18 pm

It's not a competition we are comparing apples to oranges. No one can deny the level of activity seen the past month or so in the Atlantic is robust no matter in what basin. 200 ACE is nearly the normal average of the entire southern hemisphere annual value! Quite an impressive feat.

That said it's been a devastating and costly season with many paying with their lives and property. Meteorologically and scientifically it's been interesting to watch, but on the ground it has been a rather hellish season many wish did not happen.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#348 Postby NotSparta » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:11 pm

ACE update:

ATL: 203.9

EPAC: 97.4

WPAC: 117.2
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#349 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:42 pm

euro6208 wrote:All those typhoons had 7.0 to 8.0 on the dvorak scale and out from nowhere Patricia, WIlma and Irma and Maria (since there so significant this year in the Atl). How many 7.0's to 8.0 in the WHEM compared to ours?

It's Facts (recon) vs. Fiction (Satellite). :roll: Yet everyone acts like it's Facts vs Facts.

Not all storms were underestimated. If there's a possibility of underestimation, there's also another possibility for overestimation.

Even without recon, the WPac is the only basin to normally have at least one category 5 every year.

But remember, constantly comparing the WPac to the NAtl may be irrelevant at this time already. The 2017 season has left so much destruction and is unofficially the costliest tropical cyclone season anywhere in history.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#350 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:22 pm

Alyono wrote:give it up about the WPAC!

Dvorak both over estimates and under estimates. Remember the 6.5 estimates of Rammussen as it approached the Philippines? At least 1 full T number too high based upon surface obs from the eye showing the minimum pressure was no lower than 959mb

The Atlantic had the most active month of any basin in the world ever. Eventually, another basin will break the record


There have been Dvorak overestimates in the Atlantic as well - all of these were Recon-confirmed and none were during ERC's or transition to extratropical.

* Bill 2009 had a T7.0 at one point when the winds were 110 kt (about T5.8).
* Alex 2010 had a T6.5 at landfall with 95 kt winds (about T5.3).
* Ernesto 2012 had a T4.5 at one point when the winds were 55 kt (equivalent to T3.5).
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#351 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:02 pm

It would be interesting to see the 2017 total Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and/or Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE).
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#352 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's not a competition we are comparing apples to oranges. No one can deny the level of activity seen the past month or so in the Atlantic is robust no matter in what basin. 200 ACE is nearly the normal average of the entire southern hemisphere annual value! Quite an impressive feat.

That said it's been a devastating and costly season with many paying with their lives and property. Meteorologically and scientifically it's been interesting to watch, but on the ground it has been a rather hellish season many wish did not happen.


West Pacific is a larger basin and has more warm water due to Asia. The lack of landmass in the Southern Hemisphere is why the water is less warm and see less tropical cyclones.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#353 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:46 am

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/913625114469699585




Sam Lillo @splillo
As of 18z 9/28, the last 30 days in the Atlantic have accumulated a phenomenal 174.86 ACE ... narrowly exceeding previous record set in 2004
12:42 AM - Sep 29, 2017

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#354 Postby NotSparta » Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:52 pm

ACE update:

ATL: 204.8

EPAC: 97.4

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#355 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:03 pm

At 204.8, very close to being double the WPAC (117.2 x 2 = 234.4)
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#356 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:32 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:It would be interesting to see the 2017 total Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and/or Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE).

I don't have TIKE data computed, but I do keep track of many different kinds of stats, including PDI and storm days. Here are my numbers as of 00Z September 30:

Image

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#357 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:09 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I don't have TIKE data computed, but I do keep track of many different kinds of stats, including PDI and storm days. Here are my numbers as of 00Z September 30:

https://i.imgur.com/6kO5p6L.png

https://i.imgur.com/Hf6ARqH.png

https://i.imgur.com/Zuo75tz.png


Thank you. Very interesting. ACE correlates with PDI. I notice Irma's PDI is higher than ACE. What is 7.5?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#358 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:16 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I don't have TIKE data computed, but I do keep track of many different kinds of stats, including PDI and storm days. Here are my numbers as of 00Z September 30:

https://i.imgur.com/6kO5p6L.png

https://i.imgur.com/Hf6ARqH.png

https://i.imgur.com/Zuo75tz.png


Thank you. Very interesting. ACE correlates with PDI. I notice Irma's PDI is higher than ACE. What is 7.5?

ACE and PDI's computation methods are very similar. ACE is a sum of each squared wind value divided by 10**4 while PDI is the sum of each cubed wind value divided by 10**6. 100 kt is both 1 ACE point and 1 point of PDI. High ratios of PDI to ACE is due to major hurricane activity.

7.5 is my shorthand for CI 7.5 days, or otherwise known as days spent >= 155 kt (T7.5 storms). CI is 'current intensity' from the Dvorak Technique, and I figured I didn't have anything better to call those systems.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#359 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:41 am

Alyono wrote:give it up about the WPAC!



The Atlantic had the most active month of any basin in the world ever. Eventually, another basin will break the record


Yeah the Atlantic has the only recon worldwide. Read my previous post...
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#360 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:15 am

1900hurricane wrote:ACE and PDI's computation methods are very similar. ACE is a sum of each squared wind value divided by 10**4 while PDI is the sum of each cubed wind value divided by 10**6. 100 kt is both 1 ACE point and 1 point of PDI. High ratios of PDI to ACE is due to major hurricane activity.

7.5 is my shorthand for CI 7.5 days, or otherwise known as days spent >= 155 kt (T7.5 storms). CI is 'current intensity' from the Dvorak Technique, and I figured I didn't have anything better to call those systems.


I thought PDI was a complicated formula, but it is like ACE.

IKE is more complicated as you need to know size and radius of maximum winds, which is not available for all storms.
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