2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 191.1 | EPAC - 97.3 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#361 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:25 am

euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:give it up about the WPAC!



The Atlantic had the most active month of any basin in the world ever. Eventually, another basin will break the record


Yeah the Atlantic has the only recon worldwide. Read my previous post...


and read everyone else's. Dvorak both over AND underestimates intensity
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#362 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:04 am

This thread will remained locked for a little while longer so everyone can read this.

I think good points were made about recon, Dvorak, over estimating and under estimating. We are done with it here. WPAC does not have recon and unless someone pays for it there will be no recon. End of story. NATL and to some extend the EPAC has recon. I think, objectively, we have seen Dvorak make mistakes in both directions. Doesn't really matter since the data we get is the data we have to work with, period. This is not a thread for arguing about it, this is a thread to record the currently accepted ACE values.

Personally I could care less if the NATL broke some kind of ACE record, it's a meaningless number backed up by improved observational techniques. For all we know the actual record month was back in the 1800's in name-your-basin. So let's just not go there please. Thanks.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#363 Postby NotSparta » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:42 am

ACE Update:

ATL: 205

EPAC: 98.1

WPAC: 117.2
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#364 Postby NotSparta » Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:12 pm

ACE update:

ATL: 205.3

EPAC: 98.1

WPAC: 117.2
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 203.9 | EPAC - 97.4 | WPAC - 117.8 | NIO - 3.9

#365 Postby NotSparta » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:36 am

ACE update:

ATL: 205.5

EPAC: 97.9

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#366 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:58 am

Just to show how active the WPAC really is. An ACE of 117.2 would be considered an above normal season in the Atlantic and near normal for the EPAC. Already showing signs of some activity at the end of the month.

The WPAC never sleeps.
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#367 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:26 am

still likely that we set the Atlantic ACE record this year. Got a few points from Nate and should get quite a few from soon to be Ophelia. Plus, I fully expect another Caribbean cane this month
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#368 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:00 am

Alyono wrote:still likely that we set the Atlantic ACE record this year. Got a few points from Nate and should get quite a few from soon to be Ophelia. Plus, I fully expect another Caribbean cane this month

So you think we can still surpass 1933's 259 units of ACE?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#369 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:04 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Alyono wrote:still likely that we set the Atlantic ACE record this year. Got a few points from Nate and should get quite a few from soon to be Ophelia. Plus, I fully expect another Caribbean cane this month

So you think we can still surpass 1933's 259 units of ACE?


yeah. Not sure how many units Nate ended up with, but the numbers are above the 205 we currently have. Ophelia should produce 10-15 units of ACE. Would only need one typical Caribbean October monster to get us to the record then
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#370 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:46 pm

According to CSU Nate added 4.1 units to bring the Atl season up to 208 units. Ophelia should meander around to add quite a few more
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#371 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:19 pm

So, if O gets us to 220-225, what chance is there for the other 30-40?
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#372 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:55 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:So, if O gets us to 220-225, what chance is there for the other 30-40?


likely late October or November Caribbean development
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#373 Postby NotSparta » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:13 am

ACE update:

ATL: 211.2

EPAC: 97.9

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 205.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#374 Postby tatertawt24 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:58 am

NotSparta wrote:ACE update:

ATL: 211.2

EPAC: 97.9

WPAC: 117.2

NIO: 3.9


Atlantic would only be 4 units away from having the ACE of both the EPAC and WPAC combined. :lol:
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 211.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#375 Postby NotSparta » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:53 am

ACE Update:

ATL: 214

EPAC: 97.9

WPAC: 117.5

NIO: 3.9
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#376 Postby blp » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:24 pm

Getting closer. Opheila keeping it going will put in more ACE than I thought.

1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....214
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#377 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:53 am

Highest ACE seasons 3-6 are so absurdly close (separated by <5 ACE!) that another relatively long lived major or two longer lived moderate hurricanes after Ophelia would quickly vault 2017 from 7th to 3rd all-time. Maybe a little bit of a stretch at this point, but with storms like Mitch, Lenny, Michelle, Sandy, Paloma, etc. on the books in this active era, it's not implausible that we could add enough after Ophelia to reach 3rd all-time.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#378 Postby Ryxn » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:54 am

ATL: 216.8
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#379 Postby blp » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:21 am

Update:

1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....218.5
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Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9

#380 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:44 pm

blp wrote:Update:

1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....218.5


One more Caribbean storm, which I think we will get later this month, and we could start surpassing some of those years if not all of them.
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