2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 70.0075 - WPAC - 33.3525 - NIO - 3.945

#81 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:23 am

Global ACE is climbing closer to normal thanks to the EPAC numbers and Noru bringing the WPAC up. Another longer tracker major hurricane/typhoon would likely bring it to normal.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 71.485 - WPAC - 38.885 - NIO - 3.945

#82 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:38 pm

WPAC has jumped bigtime as now SuperTyphoon continue to rake up ACE units.It was upgraded to cat 5 140kts at 18z Best Track.The NORU total as of this update is 22.34 units.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 71.485 - WPAC - 38.885 - NIO - 3.945

#83 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:57 pm

That was somewhat of a surprise Noru explosively intensified the past 24 hours. Likely to be top ACE producer to date surpassing Fernanda
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 71.485 - WPAC - 38.885 - NIO - 3.945

#84 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:57 am

Emily in the ATL should add 0.1-0.5 ACE. I think that must be record of some kind for so many named systems under 2 units. Maybe 2013 comes closest to the ratio with 4 named storms to 5 storms this year by Aug 1st.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.0175 - EPAC - 72.055 - WPAC - 40.815 - NIO - 3.945

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:48 am

Updated at title the latest ACE numbers for North Atlantic,EPAC and WPAC.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 71.485 - WPAC - 38.885 - NIO - 3.945

#86 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:15 am

Ntxw wrote:That was somewhat of a surprise Noru explosively intensified the past 24 hours. Likely to be top ACE producer to date surpassing Fernanda


NORU has surpassed Fernanda on ACE units and it will keep adding many more.

NORU=30.57

Fernanda=28.7475
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.62 - WPAC - 46.625 - NIO - 3.945

#87 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:20 am

NORU looks to be a beast so this should pass Fernanda by a lot when all is said and done. The ATL is getting left in the dust as usual by this time of year but should start to add some ACE as we head deeper into August and September.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 3.735 - EPAC - 71.485 - WPAC - 38.885 - NIO - 3.945

#88 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:43 am

cycloneye wrote:
Ntxw wrote:That was somewhat of a surprise Noru explosively intensified the past 24 hours. Likely to be top ACE producer to date surpassing Fernanda


NORU has surpassed Fernanda on ACE units and it will keep adding many more.

NORU=30.57

Fernanda=28.7475


It was a matter of time, WPAC is a huge basin and even a quiet year there is many times more than a full year elsewhere. Much needed ACE to bring up the global average
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.62 - WPAC - 46.625 - NIO - 3.945

#89 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:42 am

It's not only the strongest TC this year globally but also the most ACE TC. Already at 32.6725, It has maybe 4-6 days left.

I see this one maybe reaching 50 or more which would bring the WPAC season close to normal.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.62 - WPAC - 46.625 - NIO - 3.945

#90 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:32 am

Let's not forget Emily. It must have boosted the Atlantic Ace half a point. :lol:
2 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 49.9725 - NIO - 3.945

#91 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:55 am

I also think Noru will easily surpass 50. Think it will also make Major (wpac super typhoon).
BTW, I assume that super typhoon is the same as Major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher).
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 49.9725 - NIO - 3.945

#92 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:05 am

OuterBanker wrote:BTW, I assume that super typhoon is the same as Major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher).


Super typhoon is used for high-end cat 4's and cat 5s with winds of at least 130 knots.
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 49.9725 - NIO - 3.945

#93 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:45 am

Emily added 0.4 units

Only Noru as of today is adding much ACE. NHEM ACE is getting back to normal due to the WPAC getting closer (thanks to Noru) to average and the EPAC being above average to close the deficit. Overall as it stands WPAC is around 70% of normal, EPAC about 160% of normal and Atlantic 50% of normal.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 55.315 - NIO - 3.945

#94 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:51 am

Noru up to 41.14.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 58.6075 - NIO - 3.945

#95 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:49 pm

If anyone was wondering what the average ACE per day in the Atlantic and East Pacific is. The Atlantic has a stronger peak over a smaller time frame, while the EPac is more consistently racking up ACE over a longer period.

Image
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 58.6075 - NIO - 3.945

#96 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:If anyone was wondering what the average ACE per day in the Atlantic and East Pacific is. The Atlantic has a stronger peak over a smaller time frame, while the EPac is more consistently racking up ACE over a longer period.

[images removed]

I just happen to have the same graph for the WPac handy.

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 4.14 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.545 - NIO - 3.945

#97 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:11 am

Franklin will add a few more to the Atlantic. 2-3 units if it stays a tropical storm into MX, 3-5 on the upper end if it achieves a hurricane.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 5.625 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945

#98 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:05 am

Not bad for being the first Cat 5 globally. ACE 43.75 brings the ACE to 61.425 or about 70 % of normal YTD of 87.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 5.785 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945

#99 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:26 am

2 units so far for Franklin with about 24h or so left. 3-4 units seems good
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 6.73 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945

#100 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:23 pm

@BigJoeBastardi
The hurricane season is NOT STRONG. Objective ACE index even with Franklin is well below normal. Ave ACE/storm 1.1 1950s: 10.6!


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/895360968104058880


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 50 guests