Gulf of Mexico water temps

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Gulf of Mexico water temps

#1 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:19 am

Saw this on Twitter yesterday from Eric Blake. Is there any connection between anomalously warm Gulf water temps and the kind of tropical season which ensues?

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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:42 pm

Saw that too. Fortunately the GoM hasn't had a lot of significant activity in it other than a few weak storms and hurricanes here and there. Of course IF conditions as a whole are favorable then it may be something to watch, but SST's are just one of the many different factors that go into making a basin or sub-basin favorable. Instability, and Wind Shear are others that would need to be favorable also.

Time will tell, should know more come May or June.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#3 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:53 pm

GOM has been much above normal in the cold season for almost a decade. It's still dependent on the atmosphere and what temps are during the hurricane season. Several degrees above in February is still much too cold to support anything and rate of warming is not linear, if it warms slow (for instance due to storminess and troughs in the spring up-welling cooler water) then above normal now could equate to below normal during the season for example. SSTA's in itself is not a good indicator, however spatial SST patterns can be.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#4 Postby Steve » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:56 pm

To answer your question, I don't know. I'm sure someone has done an SSTA study of Gulf water temps in late February correlated to hurricane season, but I haven't seen it. So I don't know. Often the Gulf reverses from cold, but I don't think it's been this + in late winter in a while (I could be wrong a year or 2 in the last 10). So I think what matters is whether it's just a seasonal variation or a harbinger. Likely if it stays too warm in the Spring, eastern moving lows will probably track toward the Gulf. The instability ahead of cold fronts could mean really intense thunderstorms this spring for the Tennessee valley and portions of south and central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

If the warmer ssta's hold on through the summer, I guess we have a shot at higher potential heat content available.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#5 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:10 pm

Looking only at a SST anomaly map can be deceiving. Water temps in the Gulf are nowhere near warm enough for TC development. Just because it's 3-4 degrees warmer than normal doesn't mean that the same anomaly will carry forward through the hurricane season, though I do expect that SSTs will continue to be above normal in the Gulf this season, as they have for several years.

Water temps, alone, do not make hurricanes. It takes a favorable environment (low shear, high instability). Conditions have been rather hostile in the Gulf in recent years. It's too early to determine the peak season conditions there, though the ECMWF is indicating drier than normal and higher pressure than normal in the Gulf into August. If the pattern now, which is similar to February of 1986 and 1996 prevails this summer, then the Gulf may remain quiet this season but the East Coast may be active. I don't know if 1986 or 1996 will be a good analog for this season yet, though.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#6 Postby RL3AO » Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:18 am

I know there is some connection between ssts in gom and severe wx season. Not sure about a correlation for upcoming hurricane season.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#7 Postby NDG » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:10 am

SSTs over the GOM don't usually say what kind of a season we will have, we have seen plenty of warm waters in past years over the GOM but the atmosphere was hostile.
But since we are on this subject windshear is running below average over the GOM so far this year, does not mean that it will stay like this through the season. Caribbean Sea is the same way. I think we may see an early busy start of the hurricane season before it gets a lid on by a possible weak El Nino later in the season, IMO.

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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#8 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looking only at a SST anomaly map can be deceiving. Water temps in the Gulf are nowhere near warm enough for TC development. Just because it's 3-4 degrees warmer than normal doesn't mean that the same anomaly will carry forward through the hurricane season, though I do expect that SSTs will continue to be above normal in the Gulf this season, as they have for several years.

Water temps, alone, do not make hurricanes. It takes a favorable environment (low shear, high instability). Conditions have been rather hostile in the Gulf in recent years. It's too early to determine the peak season conditions there, though the ECMWF is indicating drier than normal and higher pressure than normal in the Gulf into August. If the pattern now, which is similar to February of 1986 and 1996 prevails this summer, then the Gulf may remain quiet this season but the East Coast may be active. I don't know if 1986 or 1996 will be a good analog for this season yet, though.


1986 occurred in cool phase of Atlantic and El Nino was developing.

1996 occurred in warm phase of Atlantic and La Nina was fading.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:17 pm

I think that 1986 may be the best analog for this year with a possible developing El Nino
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#10 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:36 am

Just wanted to thank everyone for chiming in and providing a good education for this S2Ker long on experience here but short on tropical weather knowledge. :wink:
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:36 pm

The GOM water temps wont make a difference if El Nino causes high shear
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#12 Postby Steve » Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:09 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The GOM water temps wont make a difference if El Nino causes high shear


It will make a difference as far as fuel and potential. It's not like the Gulf doesn't have a history of serious hurricanes during El Niño's. But obviously they are all different so...
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:34 am

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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#14 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:21 pm

I would be more concerned about severe weather in the spring with the warm Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#15 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:46 am

This is why you can't put too much stock into SST's anomalies in a smaller context and shorter time spans. They quickly change with disturbed weather. The gulf has seen cooling and parts of the eastern gulf are below normal now. But with that point even cooler than normal is kind of irrelevant as come hurricane season it will be plenty warm enough to fuel storms. Just to emphasize SST anomalies are best used in a larger context relative to other areas for atmospheric patterns rather than the linear line of thinking that warmer than normal SSTs equates to big storms.

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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#16 Postby MGC » Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:57 pm

The GOM is always warm enough to support a Cat-5 midseason. Just have to pray it don't happen. It all depends how much shear is present.....MGC
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#17 Postby Steve » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:50 pm

As per earlier notes in the posts above, it looks like the very warm Gulf waters influenced the Winter and will have impacts in the Spring as far as enhanced severe storms and potentially tornado season.

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... short_home
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:48 pm

MGC wrote:The GOM is always warm enough to support a Cat-5 midseason. Just have to pray it don't happen. It all depends how much shear is present.....MGC


Agreed - I wouldn't be too worried regarding hurricane season of an active Gulf, as the SST's are almost always over 30C during peak season. Even when the GOM is cooler than normal, it (and the Caribbean) can easily support intense hurricanes come peak season. It's the tropical and subtropical Atlantic that tends to fluctuate a lot more.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#19 Postby Steve » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:42 pm

It's March, and early. But let's see what happens to those Western Gulf anomalies and whether or not they reverse. If the SSTA's off Texas and Mexico don't reverse or get washed out by spring rains (and oh yeah, there won't be as much snowmelt coming down this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2 landfalling and intensifying tropical systems on our western Gulf coast. You figure anywhere from the Yucatán to SE TX could be under the gun. But it's too early to know.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps

#20 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:43 pm

Steve wrote:It's March, and early. But let's see what happens to those Western Gulf anomalies and whether or not they reverse. If the SSTA's off Texas and Mexico don't reverse or get washed out by spring rains (and oh yeah, there won't be as much snowmelt coming down this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2 landfalling and intensifying tropical systems on our western Gulf coast. You figure anywhere from the Yucatán to SE TX could be under the gun. But it's too early to know.

It is interesting to watch the discussions already going on about the very anamolous GOM SSTs(Especially W GOM). Almost everyone from the newest newbie to those who have followed the tropics all of their lives(like me) have something to say about it. Even professional mets are talking. Interestingly to me I haven't seen a lot of discussion of any of the other factors that play into cyclogenisis and the tracks of tropical systems. I must agree though that I find the anamolously warm SSTs in the GOM troubling since if the other parameters are there and there isn't any change or trending away from these very warm waters it could(would?) portend strong, stronger, or strengthening storms closer to shore.
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