Gulf of Mexico water temps
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
Looking at tropical tidbits and seeing ENSO 1\2 cooling drastically and the EPAC MDR cooling quite a bit if that continues regardless of El Nino the western GOM might have real trouble if the SSTAs are even close to what they are now so if the profiles look similar in May or June that will be when I will say put on your helmets its going to be a bumpy ride but as of right now I would stay vigilant of that and not get too stressed out as we are still 2 months and 5 days from the start of hurricane season
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Kingarabian
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at tropical tidbits and seeing ENSO 1\2 cooling drastically and the EPAC MDR cooling quite a bit if that continues regardless of El Nino the western GOM might have real trouble if the SSTAs are even close to what they are now so if the profiles look similar in May or June that will be when I will say put on your helmets its going to be a bumpy ride but as of right now I would stay vigilant of that and not get too stressed out as we are still 2 months and 5 days from the start of hurricane season
Regardless of an El-Nino or not, SST's in the GOM are always sizzling hot. The only thing that matters for the GOM is whether shear being favorable or not.
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wxman57
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
Kingarabian wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at tropical tidbits and seeing ENSO 1\2 cooling drastically and the EPAC MDR cooling quite a bit if that continues regardless of El Nino the western GOM might have real trouble if the SSTAs are even close to what they are now so if the profiles look similar in May or June that will be when I will say put on your helmets its going to be a bumpy ride but as of right now I would stay vigilant of that and not get too stressed out as we are still 2 months and 5 days from the start of hurricane season
Regardless of an El-Nino or not, SST's in the GOM are always sizzling hot. The only thing that matters for the GOM is whether shear being favorable or not.
That's true. The water could be boiling in the Gulf and it wouldn't mean development is any more likely there. However, warmer water would lead to greater intensity potential, all else being equal.
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stormlover2013
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
I was talking to my buddy who is a meteorologist and he feels its going to be an active year this year.
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
With only a few cold fronts this year, leading to the lack of days with a strong north wind, which would produce upwelling in the Gulf and cooler water. At least i think thats whats happening. What i do hope it means for us in SE Tx is more moisture coming coming onshore with the sea breeze thunderstorms, or that storms occur more frequently to cool us down.
Tropical system wise, we need so much more than warm water to make things happen. Not too worried about that. Maybe once a storm gets its act together, rapid development would be a concern. For now, im hoping for some widespread sea breeze storms to occur.
Tropical system wise, we need so much more than warm water to make things happen. Not too worried about that. Maybe once a storm gets its act together, rapid development would be a concern. For now, im hoping for some widespread sea breeze storms to occur.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: Gulf of Mexico water temps
I wouldn't be too concerned until I see all other factors for the Gulf actually be "favorable" during the peak hurricane months. It's been many years since we've seen a truly active GOM...always seems to be too much wind shear or dry air. The last two Gulf hurricanes to affect the US struggled significantly (Isaac 2012 and Hermine 2016) although Isaac's very slow movement and large size ended up causing lots of problems.
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