2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:22 am

Here is our annual thread for the indicators topic this time the 2017 North Atlantic indicators.Is important to have this thread early to see how things are evolving in the important factor of the steering as we will see based on that which areas in the basin may have visits of tropical systems. Also,it will be important to see how the pressures will be and how the waters are in terms of being more warm or not. And last but also important is how things are evolving in the Vertical Instability factor.Let's see how things evolve in the next few months and how is the Saharan air Layer doing. Post away your takes folks.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going in the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that starting on April 1rst. As a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html




http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/




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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... od=splitEW

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml



ECMWF MSLP Updates
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 02, 2017 5:29 pm

Another factor that has to be considered are the QBO winds and there are interesting things happening with that and this is why I am sharing from Phil Klotzbach about this.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/837400303364235265




https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog_held/72- ... f-the-qbo/
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Mar 02, 2017 6:26 pm

If I had to take an uneducated guess as to how the 2017 season may end up just by looking at that MSLP I'd say it will be dead. Once again the Pacific will be the hotspot, though the Atlantic sure did put on show last season with all the lack of instability throughout many parts of the basin.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#4 Postby Alyono » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:28 pm

was proven more than a decade ago that QBO has no impact at all
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#5 Postby RL3AO » Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:19 pm

The QBO over the past six months ago has been very strange and fascinating to observe though!
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:52 pm

The SOI is also in a slight negative phase and oscillating between slight positive and slight negative so basically neutral.

Based on the Euro pressures the western GOM and Caribbean may be the places to watch if the ENSO transitions to a more madoki otherwise its going to be mostly Extratropical transition storms for 2017

The Type of El Nino is going to decide what type of season we have. If its a traditional El Nino I suspect something like a 2006 or 2009 season but if a madoki a 1969, 1979 or even 2004 like season is possible

Pressure patterns are hard to gauge this far out but as of this writing the Azores high is actually in a position that could cause some higher pressures in the MDR which would squelch activity some there but one thing I've noticed overall is that the GOM has been well above normal in regards to vertical instability and so is the Caribbean currently so thats quite important

ENSO is currently in the Positive Neutral range but if that warm water in the 1\2 region remains and no El Nino comes it could act as if the El Nino is there causing shear in the Atlantic

I will do my March forecast on March 10th and still have no Idea what kind of El Nino we will have or even if there will be an El Nino. The next few months will give us some more clues
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#7 Postby NDG » Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:16 pm

Long range MSLP forecast by the ECMWF have to be taken with a grain of salt, IMO. Lets not forget that a lot of people were calling for a dead 2016 season just because of this:

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#8 Postby Alyono » Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:57 pm

NDG wrote:Long range MSLP forecast by the ECMWF have to be taken with a grain of salt, IMO. Lets not forget that a lot of people were calling for a dead 2016 season just because of this:

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/dat ... 6otuk7.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/dat ... yke7Sv.png


it was, until the PDO collapse

It also correctly foretold a greater Hawaii threat than 2015
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#9 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:14 pm

Most groups were forecasting an above-average season for 2016. The Euro's MSLP anomaly pattern last spring indicated a quiet deep tropics east of the Caribbean but more active across the central to western Caribbean to the SE U.S. Coast.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Most groups were forecasting an above-average season for 2016. The Euro's MSLP anomaly pattern last spring indicated a quiet deep tropics east of the Caribbean but more active across the central to western Caribbean to the SE U.S. Coast.


And thats exactly what happened so I don't know where theres a discrepancy in some people's minds but nothing really got going in the MDR but until it moved out of the MDR where things got going strong.

The way I see it the GOM, Caribbean, the east coast, and the Subtropical Atlantic may have some good activity depending on what the El Nino does mostly if its a traditional El Nino or a El Nino Madoki which seems to be trying to set up so who knows. It also looks like the MDR may once again have lower than normal activity
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#11 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:36 pm

Honestly, It wouldn't make that much sense to me for a moderate el nino to form, so I think that either the water doesn't warm very much and we end up with a warm neutral/ borderline el nino or possibly a madokai el nino, which doesn't necessarily mean that the season will be active, it just means that the el nino may have less effect on us, there could always be SAL, High Pressure, and Cold Fronts in October that kill everything... A season with 13-17 Named Storms makes sense to me, sort of like last year... just my two cents :D
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:46 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Honestly, It wouldn't make that much sense to me for a moderate el nino to form, so I think that either the water doesn't warm very much and we end up with a warm neutral/ borderline el nino or possibly a madokai el nino, which doesn't necessarily mean that the season will be active, it just means that the el nino may have less effect on us, there could always be SAL, High Pressure, and Cold Fronts in October that kill everything... A season with 13-17 Named Storms makes sense to me, sort of like last year... just my two cents :D


several of the madoki El Nino's have had the quality over quantity type seasons so maybe 2017 could be like that
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:26 am

The shear in the Caribbean is currently low for this time of year, thats the area I believe we have to watch in a few months
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:01 pm

Whoa to that large blue patch of SSTA's in Eastern Atlantic.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#15 Postby Alyono » Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:19 pm

take a look at that Atlantic wide map. It does not match the GOM map. GOM SSTs have been well above average, which has lessened the fog season along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf map reflects that. The Atlantic wide map says the Gulf is COOLER than average
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:35 pm

Alyono wrote:take a look at that Atlantic wide map. It does not match the GOM map. GOM SSTs have been well above average, which has lessened the fog season along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf map reflects that. The Atlantic wide map says the Gulf is COOLER than average

There are two different charts for the full Atlantic. The one just below the Gulf of Mexico SSTA map is a 7 day anomaly change, not the SSTA map. That one is further up in the OP.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#17 Postby Steve » Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:45 pm

CPC shows better chances for a warm summer for almost all 3 month surveys. The Pacific NW shows up drier than average a few times, and New England wetter. But so far everything else is showing equal chances. I saw an output on the Weatherbell weekend summary that showed it drier than average for JJA in the lower and mid MS valleys. But the cpc's longer term climate models aren't hinting at any areas of enhanced precip in the SE yet. My take on that is high pressure getting established in the SE US for the middle of summer. For now, highs are still transient and rolling off the SE Coast. Most of the fronts are still (on an angle from me) coming from the NW or WNW and angled toward points east of here. Implications are that no specific suspect early areas are indicated yet and also that the alleyway out could be generally east of me (not discounting variations that could easily have one or more systems in the Western Gulf).
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:20 am

One thing I noticed is it looks like the EPAC MDR is at normal which would be a positive for more development in the Atlantic and may need to be watched later in the year.

Also if the El Nino is a Modoki it could cause more shear in the EPAC and help out the Atlantic
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#19 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:09 am

The March ECMWF seasonal forecasts are in, though I can't post the images. Basically, the EC is forecasting 80% normal ACE for the Atlantic. Below-normal activity in both the Atlantic & East Pac this season, while the West Pac is well above-normal. High pressure and dry air dominate the deep tropics between Africa & the eastern Caribbean, making that region hostile for development.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#20 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:58 am

Lol 57 this basin is rediculous frankly I've gotten used to it bring on another boring season.
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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