2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't look very El Niño-ish if you ask me.

[weathaguyry]

:uarrow: Doesn't look very El Niño-ish if you ask me.

Agreed, also, I've heard a lot of people talk about the PDO being very positive, but isn't it nowhere near as positive as it was at the start of last season?

[Kingarabian]

2017 is the year that I hope brings changes to the CFS. It basically calls for an El Nino every year.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a positive Atlantic tripole seems to be trying to establish itself, we have to see if the MDR can warm a little bit more but that's my impression on this

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like a positive Atlantic tripole seems to be trying to establish itself, we have to see if the MDR can warm a little bit more but that's my impression on this

What would this mean for the Atlantic season if that is the case?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a positive Atlantic tripole seems to be trying to establish itself, we have to see if the MDR can warm a little bit more but that's my impression on this

What would this mean for the Atlantic season if that is the case?

Usually means a more favorable environment for tropical systems to develop in the MDR

[AutoPenalti]

I honestly wanted to rule out 2005 as an analog for this season, since it was such a hyper-active season, but considering the latest developments and the warming of the MDR and what seems to be like a positive tripole trying to develop, I can't help but say that it's something that cannot be ruled out. I'm not saying we may see something as active as last decade, however we may see something close to an active season compared to prior years. Quite interesting to say the least.

[Hammy]

I honestly wanted to rule out 2005 as an analog for this season, since it was such a hyper-active season, but considering the latest developments and the warming of the MDR and what seems to be like a positive tripole trying to develop, I can't help but say that it's something that cannot be ruled out. I'm not saying we may see something as active as last decade, however we may see something close to an active season compared to prior years. Quite interesting to say the least.

I think track-wise 2005 would actually be a good year to use, as the Gulf and Caribbean, as well as the subtropical Atlantic, were quite active, while the MDR was largely dead--that being said I don't see the number of intensity of storms from that year being repeated.

[WeatherEmperor]

I see you guys mentioning 2005 as a possible analog and also the warming of the MDR waters. What does this mean in terms of the Euro still forecasting above normal pressures for the MDR? Could the Euro back off on this in future runs??


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[TheStormExpert]

I agree with Hammy that 2005 could only be an analog track-wise. In no way is it an analog numbers-wise.

In fact just listening to many on here go on about how the Atlantic should actually be less favorable overall when compared to last season, and the East/Central Pacific should be much more favorable than what it was last season I'd go with the majority of storms that do affect land(including the U.S.) being on the weaker side of things.

I still think once again Colorado State is being too low with their numbers. 14/6/3 seems reasonable for now.

[Ntxw]

CSU has been on the lower end of the spectrum past few years. Conditions are not that bad, or doesn't seem like it at this point. But there is no big signal for a huge season either. 2005, like 1983 on the other end of the spectrum, are extreme seasons. They are once a lifetime kind of seasons and are rare. Had the past 3-4 seasons been hyperactive the argument could be made for comparison. A near normal season, perhaps more emphasis on quantity but a lot of mixed signals. We should have a better idea next month.

[Kazmit]

Numbers-wise, I think we'll see something similar to last year, although probably no more than that. And yes, as others are saying, I think there will be more land impacts this year, at least for most of the season. A lot depends on whether or not El Niño develops, but I personally doubt it.

[Alyono]

CSU has been on the lower end of the spectrum past few years. Conditions are not that bad, or doesn't seem like it at this point. But there is no big signal for a huge season either. 2005, like 1983 on the other end of the spectrum, are extreme seasons. They are once a lifetime kind of seasons and are rare. Had the past 3-4 seasons been hyperactive the argument could be made for comparison. A near normal season, perhaps more emphasis on quantity but a lot of mixed signals. We should have a better idea next month.

Just a note that 2005 was initially forecast to be an average season of 15/8/4

[chaser1]

CSU has been on the lower end of the spectrum past few years. Conditions are not that bad, or doesn't seem like it at this point. But there is no big signal for a huge season either. 2005, like 1983 on the other end of the spectrum, are extreme seasons. They are once a lifetime kind of seasons and are rare. Had the past 3-4 seasons been hyperactive the argument could be made for comparison. A near normal season, perhaps more emphasis on quantity but a lot of mixed signals. We should have a better idea next month.

Just a note that 2005 was initially forecast to be an average season of 15/8/4

I certainly don't remember but do you recall "when" and "what" conditions evolved that year where everyone began taking greater notice that the season might evolve the way it did? I'm curious what particular signals did that years' global long range models essentially "bust on" or simply not anticipate?

Now that I"m thinking about it, I wonder which pre-season forecast prognostications were the most bullish about that upcoming season.

[Alyono]

CSU has been on the lower end of the spectrum past few years. Conditions are not that bad, or doesn't seem like it at this point. But there is no big signal for a huge season either. 2005, like 1983 on the other end of the spectrum, are extreme seasons. They are once a lifetime kind of seasons and are rare. Had the past 3-4 seasons been hyperactive the argument could be made for comparison. A near normal season, perhaps more emphasis on quantity but a lot of mixed signals. We should have a better idea next month.

Just a note that 2005 was initially forecast to be an average season of 15/8/4

I certainly don't remember but do you recall "when" and "what" conditions evolved that year where everyone began taking greater notice that the season might evolve the way it did? I'm curious what particular signals did that years' global long range models essentially "bust on" or simply not anticipate?

Now that I"m thinking about it, I wonder which pre-season forecast prognostications were the most bullish about that upcoming season.

the first 2005 hyperactive forecast was the August one, after we were already at 7/3/2

[WeatherEmperor]

Over in the ENSO thread they just posted that a significant WWB is about to take place which could kick start this El Nino. I dont think number wise we should be using 2005 as an analog if the Nini gets going but maybe trackwise its ok?


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[NDG]

I see you guys mentioning 2005 as a possible analog and also the warming of the MDR waters. What does this mean in terms of the Euro still forecasting above normal pressures for the MDR? Could the Euro back off on this in future runs??


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Just about every year during the past 5-6 years the Euro has biased on the high side when it comes to pressures over the Atlantic basin.

[weathaguyry]

Quite a bit of warming in the MDR, looking nice!

[TheStormExpert]

Here are the last several years SST's Anomalies at the beginning of May just for comparison. In fact the Tropical Atlantic looks to be the warmest it's been in years! Though that could mean very little as it all depends on what the vertical instability and wind shear looks like. The thing that sticks out the most is the cool strip stretching from the extreme SW Atlantic northeast into the Central North Atlantic, looks to be the coolest it's been since 2013, what could that mean?

2013


2014


2015


2016


2017

[Hammy]

CFS July forecast showing potentially three separate tracks--while this is still quite a ways out and I don't necessarily think these exact paths would be followed, could this be an indicator that July could be somewhat more active than in the last several years?