2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Hurricaneman]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/867730061432164352

Based on that graphic neutral years are the ones to watch

[cycloneye]

The best news from the NOAA news conference was that GOES-16 will move east. Yes!! http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... -east-fall

[Kazmit]

The wave train begins!
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/867834509194145793

[CrazyC83]

There's nothing wrong with using 2005 as an analog, if warranted and conditions are basically clear of it. You are talking an extreme season, so likely the seasons leading up to it (1998-2004)could be quite active. Now thats a different story than having 2005 brought up every season for similarities, then it loses credibility.

Actually if you think about 2002-2004 were very active despite a couple of Ninos and a warm neutral leading up to 05. The Atlantic had plans otherwise Pacific or no Pacific

2005 was cool neutral to weak La Nina during the hurricane season I believe? Also I find seasons transitioning out of El Nino can be quite active.

[Hurricaneman]

The wave train begins!
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/867834509194145793

Could be a sign for later activity in the MDR

[Kingarabian]

The wave train begins!
[]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/867834509194145793[/tweet]

Could be a sign for later activity in the MDR

I think these early season waves typically cross into the EPAC and develop there while the MDR and Caribbean gradually become more and more favorable.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be showing quite the active wave train and a tropical system in the MDR which wouldn't be without precedent as it happened in June 2003 but if the wave train continues strong we may have to watch for something like that

[cycloneye]

Fairly decent wavetrain that extends from 50W to Ethiopia.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/xrit/000.0E ... _grid.jpeg

[AutoPenalti]

Fairly decent wavetrain that extends from 50W to Ethiopia.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/xrit/000.0E ... _grid.jpeg

This post automatically asks me to login to some sort of account on the website.

[cycloneye]

Fairly decent wavetrain that extends from 50W to Ethiopia.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/xrit/000.0E ... _grid.jpeg

This post automatically asks me to login to some sort of account on the website.

Go to the Dundee site here and register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

[TheAustinMan]

This post automatically asks me to login to some sort of account on the website.

Go to the Dundee site here and register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

I think it would be wise to just link to the image as opposed to using the [ img ] tags. The Dundee Satellite Receiving Station is a great, legitimate website, but displaying the image here gives people pop-ups asking for their username and password, and that might make it look like Storm2K's been hacked to a passerby reader. I thought it was a phishing attack the first time I saw it.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280

What exactly does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280




http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/BF552AF0-5065-401B-B150-04C598FB2B0F_zpslpsa8uyb.jpg
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/68DD4C50-6C8A-4B4F-A44E-C60BC8804010_zps7djx5vh9.jpg

What exactly does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?

Big time subsidence over the western Atlantic Basin during this same time of the year in '09, no wonder it was so quiet May-early August.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280




http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/BF552AF0-5065-401B-B150-04C598FB2B0F_zpslpsa8uyb.jpg
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/68DD4C50-6C8A-4B4F-A44E-C60BC8804010_zps7djx5vh9.jpg

What exactly does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?

Big time subsidence over the western Atlantic Basin during this same time of the year in '09, no wonder it was so quiet May-early August.

Does that mean the opposite is going to happen this year in the first few months of the season?

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280

What exactly does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?

Good possibility if conditions don't change, IMO.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/868253848972001280

What exactly does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?

Good possibility if conditions don't change, IMO.

Is he trying to say conditions are the same or similar to 2009? Those maps look different. Can someone explain what he is hinting at?

[TheAustinMan]

Is he trying to say conditions are the same or similar to 2009? Those maps look different. Can someone explain what he is hinting at?

I believe that all that is being said is that the conditions modeled by the European ensembles for late May into early June are different than what was observed in 2009 (which, as he notes, is one possible analog for this year).

The maps show velocity potential anomalies at the 200hPa height. Velocity potential is a proxy for upper-level divergence and thus enhanced convection; blue areas indicate low velocity potential and thus greater upper-level divergence, red areas high velocity potential and thus lesser upper-level divergence. Concerning the Atlantic, the ECMWF ensemble indicates better VP200 anomalies for the basin compared to 2009, though VP200 anomalies depicted in the Eastern Pacific are favorable for enhanced convection there.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or does it seem like we are stuck in a Spring-like weather pattern throughout the U.S.? I'm asking because wasn't 2013 stuck in Spring and look what happened that hurricane season.

[TheAustinMan]

Is it me or does it seem like we are stuck in a Spring-like weather pattern throughout the U.S.? I'm asking because wasn't 2013 stuck in Spring and look what happened that hurricane season.

It is currently spring, and if the CFS Weekly is any indication, the cross country troughing will begin to pull north and taper as we transition through June.