2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1501 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:43 pm

That certainly is food for thought, and it does throw the question if CSU's prediction of above-average overall ACE activity into question. I mean, how long realistically will Harvey last in the Caribbean? Or could it regenerate further west, and/or in the Bay of Campeche?

I guess my question is, how long does this suppressed phase last? A week, maybe two, or even a month? I am guessing the latter seems quite unlikely, but this is outside what I know well, so I am trying to learn here too.

-Andrew92
1 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1502 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:07 pm

Andrew92 wrote:That certainly is food for thought, and it does throw the question if CSU's prediction of above-average overall ACE activity into question. I mean, how long realistically will Harvey last in the Caribbean? Or could it regenerate further west, and/or in the Bay of Campeche?

I guess my question is, how long does this suppressed phase last? A week, maybe two, or even a month? I am guessing the latter seems quite unlikely, but this is outside what I know well, so I am trying to learn here too.

-Andrew92


In regards to how long the upcoming suppressed phase will last, I will do my best to post updates from Michael Ventrice as soon as they become available. My best guess is a couple of weeks but lets see.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1503 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:11 pm

keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season
7 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1504 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:53 pm

Alyono wrote:keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season


Who dat?

Bastardi brought up an interesting point today in his Saturday Summary regarding what he called, "the hyper-ACE years of 2003 through 2005" vs. 2017. There was generally much higher than normal pressure across the Arctic in those years (or whatever period he sampled in those years) vs. this year where the look is the opposite. The similarity, though, is the generally lower pressures in the Gulf which would continue to lead to systems getting to the west. Oddly enough, he says look out below 6-10 days regardless if it's 92L or a piling up of energy or whatever, but there will be a cool high across most of the middle of the country which is a pattern signal for tropical activity to the south. That goes for the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE Coast of FL.

He also cautioned again that weak looking systems farther out can get stronger closer in.
1 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1505 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:24 pm

Alyono wrote:keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season


Yeah, I thought there was something up that his forecasts didn't seem quite right. I'm not ruling what he is saying out, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.

I can see the MDR staying relatively unfavorable near the peak weeks, though not entirely enough that one or two storms can't sneak in there. But I just have a hard time believing that things are going to be completely unfavorable all throughout the Atlantic between now and September 25 - a month-long span going through September 10, the peak day for activity. I know the range starts on the 7th, but with things hostile now nearing the normally active part, is that really sustainable, especially in the western half of the Atlantic? Maybe if it were El Nino, or similar EPAC SST profile....but it's not.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1506 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:26 pm

You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year :lol:
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
8 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1507 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:31 pm

NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year :lol:
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.


I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1508 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:46 pm

I mentioned 1985 earlier, and on second thought, it may not be entirely unprecedented what Mike Ventrice was saying. After Elena hit on September 2, the next Atlantic hurricane wasn't until the 21st. That certainly could be said to be a year where we "couldn't buy a hurricane" for a window pretty close to when he is saying. Again, I take what he is saying with a grain of salt, but it's not wise to rule anything a pro met like him says out.

Yet, that season was still a memorable one. It only takes one, and that one had three big ones, and almost four had Kate not weakened before landfall. And the tropical Atlantic (say, south of 20 degrees) was as close to dead as can be that year, in a non-El Nino year! The Caribbean? Danny came from depression that formed there, but didn't intensify until in the Gulf. And Elena was somehow named over Cuba, but was otherwise similar to Danny, though stronger due to being over water longer.

Again...maybe a storm like Elena before the peak? Or maybe a late-bloomer that struggles until further west, probably near the Bahamas? Don't know about Juan or Kate though, as those two seem more like oddballs to me, though I suppose a storm like either of those that late could happen too. It would be rare though, that's for sure.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1509 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year :lol:
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.


I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.

Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1510 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:57 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year :lol:
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.


I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.

Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.


Everything checks out when you compare it to the 30 year average. The CIMSS charts show rather favorable wind shear. But all these systems entering the Caribbean are dying. Franklin was a messy TS when in the NW Caribbean. It's only until they enter the BOC that they develop.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1511 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.

Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.


Everything checks out when you compare it to the 30 year average. The CIMSS charts show rather favorable wind shear. But all these systems entering the Caribbean are dying. Franklin was a messy TS when in the NW Caribbean. It's only until they enter the BOC that they develop.

Bret and Don's quick death was to be expected for the time of year. The Eastern Caribbean is very hostile early in the season, and this year was no exception. Harvey struggling is no surprise, it's a classic example of the John Hope Rule where a weak TC struggles to get going in the Eastern Caribbean.
2 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1512 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:26 pm

I noticed that Gert sort of mimicked Banyan last week. There were times they looked very similar. 93W looks to be spinning up pretty far west/east. Doesn't look like it will get too strong, and it's small. There's a TCFA. A lot of times WPAC implications are a week week and a half ahead. But sometimes there are similar setups for the Asian and N.A. Coasts.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1513 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:56 pm

One more similarity to 1985: the ACE thus far compared to that year is almost identical! By my calculations, I came up with about 16.693 for the ACE for the first four storms that year, and currently this year is not even a tenth of a point above that.

-Andrew92
1 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1514 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:02 pm

Andrew92 wrote:One more similarity to 1985: the ACE thus far compared to that year is almost identical! By my calculations, I came up with about 16.693 for the ACE for the first four storms that year, and currently this year is not even a tenth of a point above that.

-Andrew92


Actually, my calculations were wrong! I didn't account for points on the best track at landfall. 1985's ACE was just 15.63 instead. So we are actually ahead of that year overall by a little bit.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1515 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:19 pm

What is causing all these TUTT's and ULL's to parade across the Atlantic this season?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1516 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:40 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What is causing all these TUTT's and ULL's to parade across the Atlantic this season?


Seems like a lot of the concentric ones moving across are originating north of waves coming off of Africa. Like dry heat cyclones which I think are helping keep some conditions across the ocean drier. Some years it seems like you have to have them for some of the named storm developments. But that is more of a La Niña trait. Neutral seasons always seem to have elements of both sides. And there have been static TUTTs as well as cut offs migrating across. Combination year. I think the ULL that was at 30/60 and spun off toward 92L was a split from a static TUTT. And that's more of a La Niña outcome.

Also I think some of the waves this year, while many have been smaller over the ocean, have been vigorous. So the atmospheric reflection right above the waves, in theory, should be too

We will see if the ULLs are harbingers of doom or great protectors within the next month.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1517 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:40 pm

I'm still wondering what we are getting ACE wise out of this pattern burst as it's still very unclear. I had 2 developments out of possibly 4 systems with max ACE of 25. We got a tiny bit with Harvey. He could peter out or he could add a few points if he makes a run for the NE Mexican Coast. 92L may or may not directly be the system showing up in modeling over the next week to 10 days. Though we could get 8-10 points depending on if it can reach hurricane status. I think the 3rd wave that looked like a recurve probably won't do anything as it appears to be getting entrained into the ULL in the middle of the ocean. . And the 4th one is just off of Africa. That's an unknown.
0 likes   

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1518 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:32 pm

lol Didn't know where else to post this, but it is funny. Very, very true!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968


4 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1519 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:23 pm

Another funny one, though I would likely call this the post 2005 map. :lol:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028


3 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1520 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:43 am

August has been more hostile for development than I thought particularly the second half has been a surprise so far. That said I do think we will see a burst of quality activity in September and/or October. Seems like some of our biggest storms in recent years past have happened in late September or October. With El Nino looking like "La Nada" (even some more cooling than originally expected happening) I think we see a big Caribbean storm or two form.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JtSmarts, ljmac75, TheWisestofAll, ToneLoc and 73 guests