2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[RL3AO]

Then there is this.

Yeah but if the first four storms formed in August, then the ACE would have been higher. Cool stat but it doesn't really mean anything.

[Hammy]

Then there is this.

Yeah but if the first four storms formed in August, then the ACE would have been higher. Cool stat but it doesn't really mean anything.

Not only that, but to make the statistic even more meaningless, 1988 didn't have any storms until the second week of August, and still ended up quite active (the year of Gilbert.)

[Ntxw]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

[TheStormExpert]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

So why did it only produce 12/5/3?

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/887451771483893760




This is interesting when comparing the graphic on the previous tweet from Lowry.

[Ntxw]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

So why did it only produce 12/5/3?

With 127 ACE which is a solid number. The point to that was as the Nina strengthened out of the Nino, it likely helped conditions to the late burst with Gilbert, Helene, and Joan. Gilbert and Joan being big Caribbean storms.

[USTropics]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

So why did it only produce 12/5/3?

There were technically 19 systems in 1988 (7 were classified only as TD's). Also, 1988 did produce 12/5/3 in essentially 3 months (Aug/Sept/Oct with Keith the only November storm). That year also produced some quality systems from mid september-mid october, two Cat 4s (Helene and Joan) and Cat 5 Gilbert (which was the strongest system ever observed in the Atlantic until Wilma in 2005 and remains the second lowest pressure in the western hemisphere at 888 mb).

[Ntxw]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

So why did it only produce 12/5/3?

There were technically 19 systems in 1998 (7 were classified only as TD's). Also, 1988 did produce 12/5/3 in essentially 3 months (Aug/Sept/Oct with Keith the only November storm). That year also produced some quality systems from mid september-mid october, two Cat 4s (Helene and Joan) and Cat 5 Gilbert (which was the strongest system ever observed in the Atlantic until Wilma in 2005 and remains the second lowest pressure in the western hemisphere at 888 mb).

Third lowest in the Whem, Patricia is first, Wilma is second followed by Gilbert third. The Carib produces some real monsters when shear is low, which is often linked to actions in the Pacific.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/887524615727095808




A very odd streak.

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Can see why forecasters are keenly watching August for a possibly active tropical Atlantic- patterns of enhanced convection shifting east.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/887406013262962688

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Looking farther ahead, the JMA sees enhanced convection maintained across the Atlantic in Aug-Oct & suppressed Pacific convection. #climate

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/887631882581458946

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
The CFS still insists that the Atlantic will turn anomalously favorable for tropical cyclones in August.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/887655800327598080

[Steve]

1988 on ONI was the second strongest Nina on record. It was bound to wake up.

So why did it only produce 12/5/3?

With 127 ACE which is a solid number. The point to that was as the Nina strengthened out of the Nino, it likely helped conditions to the late burst with Gilbert, Helene, and Joan. Gilbert and Joan being big Caribbean storms.

Gilbert still scares me, and it landfalled like 30 years ago!

[RL3AO]

The next two weeks look very unfavorable in the Atlantic. Assuming 96L doesn't pull off the unexpected, I'd predict no more systems (at least in the tropics) for the remainder of July. The first half of August could be quite favorable.

[SFLcane]

The next two weeks look very unfavorable in the Atlantic. Assuming 96L doesn't pull off the unexpected, I'd predict no more systems (at least in the tropics) for the remainder of July. The first half of August could be quite favorable.

That's an understatement RL3A0 everything I see says the switch flips in August. Enjoy slow time.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/887700044429881344




Does a suppressed CCKW literally mean no development? The EPac is in a suppressed phase of the CCKW according to that hovmoller, yet it's rapidly cranking out storms.

[Hammy]

Atlantic has the seasonal SAL and associated stable air to deal with on top of it--suppressive atmospheric cycles seem like the deciding factors in development during July in the Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

Does a suppressed CCKW literally mean no development? The EPac is in a suppressed phase of the CCKW according to that hovmoller, yet it's rapidly cranking out storms.

It doesn't mean that there won't be development. However, it'll be one of a handful of negatives in the Atlantic, while it's arguably the sole negative in the EPac right now. Also, the systems in the EPac are not doing too well right now. Moderately sheared weak storms and a dying hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Does a suppressed CCKW literally mean no development? The EPac is in a suppressed phase of the CCKW according to that hovmoller, yet it's rapidly cranking out storms.

It doesn't mean that there won't be development. However, it'll be one of a handful of negatives in the Atlantic, while it's arguably the sole negative in the EPac right now. Also, the systems in the EPac are not doing too well right now. Moderately sheared weak storms and a dying hurricane.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/8x17zeQ.png[img]

Good point. So in reality it promotes activity or vice versa. It does not shut down systems or create systems by itself.

[RL3AO]

Good point. So in reality it promotes activity or vice versa. It does not shut down systems or create systems by itself.

Yeah. The last CCKW likely had a significant impact on the development of Fernanda, Don, and helped 96L flare up. However, the large scale conditions played a big role too. Fernanda took off because of low shear/warm water/moist air. Don developed largely because of the Kelvin wave's interaction of the tropical easterly wave, but it struggled to do much because of the other negative conditions. 96L tried to develop after the wave passed it, but it couldn't overcome the dry air. Kelvin waves often act like a shot of adrenaline. They'll help enhance things for a day or two, but after that, it's up to the environment to see if the system can take off.