2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[MetroMike]

In todays free video update Joe Bastardi maintains we will break the major hurricane hit drought for the US mainland this season.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear looks pretty darn favorable as we start to build up towards the climatological peak in about 1 month from now. It looked NOTHING like this in 2015 and not sure about 2016 but guessing something similar. We still see shear across the Caribbean but that seems to be gradually diminishing I have noticed over the past couple of weeks.

[NDG]

Here comes the real train of waves.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here comes the real train of waves.

I believe this is the start of something, and that you are right. The waves look higher in latitude as well.

[SFLcane]

We're have we said this before lol...

In all seriousness we're approaching the REAL season so I'd expect atleast 1-2 of these waves to eventually to develop.

[Hurricaneman]

We're have we said this before lol...

In all seriousness we're approaching the REAL season so I'd expect atleast 1-2 of these waves to eventually to develop.

The models are starting to pick up on that, I expect the models to show more development in the coming days on into September

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/896377473289662464

[Alyono]

In todays free video update Joe Bastardi maintains we will break the major hurricane hit drought for the US mainland this season.

doesn't he say that EVERY season?

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

[RL3AO]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

[Alyono]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

agreed. I refuse to even use that term

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

It occurred consistently in the past. We have never even been close in recorded history to seeing 12 seasons plus without a major strike on the US. Just to point that out. A major hurricane has a major impact. Yes, some lower tier storms have done a lot of damage, but not on the scale of storms such as Andrew, Camille, Galveston Hurricane, Katrina, Charley, Fran, Hazel, and countless other major storms that did a whole lot of damage. The US has been spared by some very odd luck, but how we have been so lucky is up for debate.

[tolakram]

It occurred consistently in the past. We have never even been close in recorded history to seeing 12 seasons plus without a major strike on the US. Just to point that out. A major hurricane has a major impact. Yes, some lower tier storms have done a lot of damage, but not on the scale of storms such as Andrew, Camille, Galveston Hurricane, Katrina, Charley, Fran, Hazel, and countless other major storms that did a whole lot of damage. The US has been spared by some very odd luck, but how we have been so lucky is up for debate.

Imagine if Katrina had weakened a little more and was a 2 when it came ashore. Damage would have been only slightly less, if at all. Ike is a great example of a storm that did not meet the numerical equivalent of a 'major' and yet had a massive impact.

[Alyono]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

It occurred consistently in the past. We have never even been close in recorded history to seeing 12 seasons plus without a major strike on the US. Just to point that out. A major hurricane has a major impact. Yes, some lower tier storms have done a lot of damage, but not on the scale of storms such as Andrew, Camille, Galveston Hurricane, Katrina, Charley, Fran, Hazel, and countless other major storms that did a whole lot of damage. The US has been spared by some very odd luck, but how we have been so lucky is up for debate.

Many of those past storms likely would have been 1s and 2s if measured by today's standard

[AtlanticWind]

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

It occurred consistently in the past. We have never even been close in recorded history to seeing 12 seasons plus without a major strike on the US. Just to point that out. A major hurricane has a major impact. Yes, some lower tier storms have done a lot of damage, but not on the scale of storms such as Andrew, Camille, Galveston Hurricane, Katrina, Charley, Fran, Hazel, and countless other major storms that did a whole lot of damage. The US has been spared by some very odd luck, but how we have been so lucky is up for debate.

Many of those past storms likely would have been 1s and 2s if measured by today's standard

Curious, which of those storms listed would not be majors by today's standards?

[Alyono]

It occurred consistently in the past. We have never even been close in recorded history to seeing 12 seasons plus without a major strike on the US. Just to point that out. A major hurricane has a major impact. Yes, some lower tier storms have done a lot of damage, but not on the scale of storms such as Andrew, Camille, Galveston Hurricane, Katrina, Charley, Fran, Hazel, and countless other major storms that did a whole lot of damage. The US has been spared by some very odd luck, but how we have been so lucky is up for debate.

Many of those past storms likely would have been 1s and 2s if measured by today's standard

Curious, which of those storms listed would not be majors by today's standards?

Fran for one may be a 2 today. The flight level winds were not impressive at all, despite the low pressure. Many of the 1950s and 1960s "majors" have been downgraded. IN addition, the reanalysis method used an older P/W relationship so some of those may still be too high (Audrey for one). Eve Ivan and Rita, there is strong evidence those were cat 2s and today, may be called cat 2s. SFMR was not used with as much emphasis then. Flight level winds were still the thing.

[Hammy]

Many of those past storms likely would have been 1s and 2s if measured by today's standard

Curious, which of those storms listed would not be majors by today's standards?

Fran for one may be a 2 today. The flight level winds were not impressive at all, despite the low pressure. Many of the 1950s and 1960s "majors" have been downgraded. IN addition, the reanalysis method used an older P/W relationship so some of those may still be too high (Audrey for one). Eve Ivan and Rita, there is strong evidence those were cat 2s and today, may be called cat 2s. SFMR was not used with as much emphasis then. Flight level winds were still the thing.

Likewise, wouldn't systems like Gustav and Ike in 2008 and possibly Arthur in 2014 have been classified as majors had they occurred in the 50s? I feel too much is made of this "major hurricane drought" because increasingly it seems like a change in data interpretation more than anything, similarly to the apparent increase in smaller storms in the subtropics the last decade.

[AtlanticWind]

It is interesting living in south florida,I saw what Andrew did to a relatively small area here,
and what impact tho milder Wilma had on all of South Florida.
Every Hurricane impact can be so different.

[LarryWx]

If Gert were to form from 99L within the next couple of days, I'd have to call the first half of August as active/well above average in the Atlantic basin, especially considering that the 2nd half is much more active climowise. That would make it the most active 1st half since 2012.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If Gert were to form from 99L within the next couple of days, I'd have to call the first half of August as active/well above average in the Atlantic basin, especially considering that the 2nd half is much more active climowise. That would make it the most active 1st half since 2012.

I just cannot see the weatherbell forecast for a below average number of storms playing out. We are already halfway to 14 storms with many more coming. We could be near 10/12 named storms by Sept 1st.

[weathaguyry]

If Gert were to form from 99L within the next couple of days, I'd have to call the first half of August as active/well above average in the Atlantic basin, especially considering that the 2nd half is much more active climowise. That would make it the most active 1st half since 2012.

I just cannot see the weatherbell forecast for a below average number of storms playing out. We are already halfway to 14 storms with many more coming. We could be near 10/12 named storms by Sept 1st.

This kind of reminds me of 2012, not the best quality storms, but definitely an abundance of them!