tarheelprogrammer wrote:Hammy wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:With systems still struggling to develop in the MDR, and most of the Caribbean outside the area near the Yucatan. It is now common to see them develop in the central Atlantic, or the BOC. Should we consider them the new MDR areas? Seems the Atlantic no matter the pattern likes these areas the most. It has been a while since we seen a true Cape Verde season. Serious question here, and I am not trying to troll. Just want to know if it could change like that.
I pointed this out a few years now, I think because of a few excessively active seasons (in some cases the years that may have sparked interest) the MDR expectations are far too high--it's less common than many thing to see hurricanes and major hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic. Look at how seldom Puerto Rico is hit for instance. In fact in the last 22 years, only 6 years--1995, 96, 2000, 03-04, and 2010 were truly MDR-heavy seasons. Even 1999 had the bulk of the strongest activity north of 20, 2005 had only one short-lived hurricane in the MRD, and in 2008 Bertha was at almost 20 before reaching hurricane intensity and Ike was north of there.
Mark Sudduth has pointed out in his videos that the old MDR area near Africa to the Eastern Caribbean is where most storms get going this time of the year. At least in the past they did. However, the past 5 seasons or so that seems to be different. Many here have pointed that out. Odd that the subtopics and BOC seem to be where storms get going. It is puzzling to not only me, but some experts as well.
This year up to now (throw in SAL, Climo, etc) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ry_map.png
As for where storms get going "this time of year", are you referring to the last two weeks, the last 2 days, or the next 2 weeks? Genesis cant/wont get going while any small number of variables out of whack. I think that at times some people look at the storms that do develop as "what should happen" and everything else as some nice tidy box and bow solution to think their moment in time will forever reflect in what the future holds. Sometimes it helps to take a few steps back and view the over-all big picture. As tolakram suggested, let the season play out. We might just be 3-8 days away from two MDR developing systems. Even if not, if one were to take a look through the record books it is plain to see how some years had an uncanny concentration of area's of development and where ultimately tracked. Different years often had different tendencies - this is not something new. Lastly, if the good people of San Juan, Miami, or New Orleans get waxed by a mondo Cat 4 Hurricane, do you think their electricity will come on any faster if the hurricane originated in the sub-tropics verses the deeper tropics? This is kind of a pivotable point in the Atlantic season, lets see what plays out for a couple weeks.
Now I don't know why people would be calling 2005 a boring season at that point when there was already 9 named storms with 3 (almost 4) of them being hurricanes and 2 of them being majors both affecting land with one U.S. major landfall and a Caribbean Cat.5.
