tolakram wrote:Go to Talking Tropics, go back a page, then look at the URL which will look like this:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=31&start=50
Change the start number ... 2005 is around 13000. Please do NOT reply to any of those old posts.
On a serious note ... as far as activity is concerned and in my opinion. I know many of you don't mean it, or maybe some do , but complaining about a boring season when we have active storms is kind of a giveaway that 'not boring' means someone is going to get hit by a storm. We play this little dance with the season cancel posts every year, and sometimes the season is a dud, but sometimes it's the track of the storms that bores people. Think before you post, and if you're posting because your mad a storm that was modeled to hit the US is not happening then take a breather. Hurricane season is not a game.
I have fun tracking hurricanes, I have fun watching them develop, especially with the new GOES 16 imagery. It's certainly more exciting and dreadful when a storm is heading toward land, but a season of recurving storms, or storms that don't hit the US, or the continuation of 'no majors' hitting the US does not indicate the season is boring or the world / oceans / Atlantic has somehow permanently changed.
Let the season continue, post if you see pattern changes that you think warrant discussion (with evidence), and let's review once the season is nearing an end.
For me personally anything to track is interesting. But I like the numbers game too, seeing if the season can get to a certain point. But while I don't play the season cancel game (yet
) I will admit that it's becoming increasingly frustrating when the models show storms that never occur (regardless of where or intensity)--it's actually more frustrating now with the models seemingly not knowing what they're doing (and the lack of certainty that accompanies this) than it was weeks ago when the models were simply showing nothing--the more it happens harder it becomes to believe any of the models when they do show development, especially with the continued inconsistency and less than favorable MDR conditions.
and now 92L that is starting out showing the same scenario as it's predecessor. But what becomes of it remains to be seen, sure not going to believe any models for the next several days regradless what they show with it.
Another thing to point out is how active the EPAC was in July despite sinking motion most of the month, so downward motion doesn't guarantee a lack of activity, especially at the peak of the season. If I remember correctly the Atlantic had downward motion late in August last year and still produced Hurricanes Gaston and Hermine. And even if most of September is quiet, there's always a possibility for an active late September and October like most recent years. It would be hard for this season to finish below average, unless we just struggle to get major hurricanes. I do feel like Mr. Ventrice puts way too much emphasis on MJO/CCKWs.
