2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[TheStormExpert]

Phil K. for at least past year or so has been always posting and tweeting about the negative factors going for the Atlantic. Now I know the Atlantic is not as favorable as it was a decade ago but there are still a few positive factors going for the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

I think 2015 might be a comparable analog - not totally dead but not great in the Atlantic, above average in the EPAC, insanity in the CPAC...

The thought of a direct hit from the south of a major hurricane on Oahu should send chills down everyone's spines. It is not like we can drive resources from inland or up north to Hawaii in hours either...

[SFLcane]

Mega Hawaii season!

Hawaii? Most tc's turn crapola before ever reaching the island.

[cycloneye]

Mega Hawaii season!

Hawaii? Most tc's turn crapola before ever reaching the island.

I think he is referring to systems forming South or SW of the Hawaian Islands.

[Kingarabian]

I think 2015 might be a comparable analog - not totally dead but not great in the Atlantic, above average in the EPAC, insanity in the CPAC...

The thought of a direct hit from the south of a major hurricane on Oahu should send chills down everyone's spines. It is not like we can drive resources from inland or up north to Hawaii in hours either...

Complete, absolute disaster.

[euro6208]

The March ECMWF seasonal forecasts are in, though I can't post the images. Basically, the EC is forecasting 80% normal ACE for the Atlantic. Below-normal activity in both the Atlantic & East Pac this season, while the West Pac is well above-normal. High pressure and dry air dominate the deep tropics between Africa & the eastern Caribbean, making that region hostile for development.

How can we access the seasonal forecast ?

[cycloneye]

The March ECMWF seasonal forecasts are in, though I can't post the images. Basically, the EC is forecasting 80% normal ACE for the Atlantic. Below-normal activity in both the Atlantic & East Pac this season, while the West Pac is well above-normal. High pressure and dry air dominate the deep tropics between Africa & the eastern Caribbean, making that region hostile for development.

How can we access the seasonal forecast ?

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... es=tercile summary

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/844508884693848064

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/844508884693848064

Definitely not a positive signal for the deep tropics or for long tracked systems. But that just means a shot at close in development and NW Atlantic systems north of the tropics. Whether this means US impacts remains to be seen.

[wxman57]

The March ECMWF seasonal forecasts are in, though I can't post the images. Basically, the EC is forecasting 80% normal ACE for the Atlantic. Below-normal activity in both the Atlantic & East Pac this season, while the West Pac is well above-normal. High pressure and dry air dominate the deep tropics between Africa & the eastern Caribbean, making that region hostile for development.

How can we access the seasonal forecast ?

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... es=tercile summary

That's still the February forecast as of March 22nd. I get to see them around the 8th-10th of each month because we pay lots of $$$ for the full European model. They aren't made public until late in each month. Should be any day now.

Here's what I see:
1. EC predicts higher than normal pressure across much of the Atlantic. (inhibiting factor)
2. EC predicts dryer than normal conditions across the central to east Caribbean. Normal in tropical Atlantic and Gulf. (inhibiting factor)
3. EC predicting below-normal activity in the deep tropics between Africa & the Caribbean (as in recent seasons).
4. SSTs are generally cooler than they were last year at this time, except for the western Gulf.
5. EC is predicting a weak to perhaps moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
6. CFS is also forecasting a weak to moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
7. JAMSTEC is also forecasting weak to moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
8. Analog seasons we've come up with are 1951, 1953, 1969, and 2009. A mixed bag. Some very active (1969) and some quite inactive (2009). Doesn't help much.

I'd go with near normal numbers & ACE at this point (12/6/3) and 110 ACE. The reason I'd start out so high is the uncertainty in the El Nino forecast. Numbers may have a better chance of being lower than higher.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/844617634846953472

[euro6208]

How can we access the seasonal forecast ?

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... es=tercile summary

That's still the February forecast as of March 22nd. I get to see them around the 8th-10th of each month because we pay lots of $$$ for the full European model. They aren't made public until late in each month. Should be any day now.

Here's what I see:
1. EC predicts higher than normal pressure across much of the Atlantic. (inhibiting factor)
2. EC predicts dryer than normal conditions across the central to east Caribbean. Normal in tropical Atlantic and Gulf. (inhibiting factor)
3. EC predicting below-normal activity in the deep tropics between Africa & the Caribbean (as in recent seasons).
4. SSTs are generally cooler than they were last year at this time, except for the western Gulf.
5. EC is predicting a weak to perhaps moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
6. CFS is also forecasting a weak to moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
7. JAMSTEC is also forecasting weak to moderate El Nino. (inhibiting factor)
8. Analog seasons we've come up with are 1951, 1953, 1969, and 2009. A mixed bag. Some very active (1969) and some quite inactive (2009). Doesn't help much.

I'd go with near normal numbers & ACE at this point (12/6/3) and 110 ACE. The reason I'd start out so high is the uncertainty in the El Nino forecast. Numbers may have a better chance of being lower than higher.

Interesting. How much may i ask?

How about the notorious WPAC?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/846201249808691200

[Hurricaneman]

The Atlantic MDR if it warms back up and if the subtropics continue to cool could spell trouble if the EPAC MDR continues to cool and or El Nino never gets going or ends up being a madoki could spell real trouble as thats a recipe for disaster and lets hope the Atlantic MDR remains on the cool side to lessen the threat or even have the El Nino come on

[vbhoutex]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/846201249808691200

But how long are they going to stay down. Florida just ahd some very cold weather for this time of year. SSTs are notorious for reacting to the a cold atmosphere. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they rebound quickly. The normal cold pool in the mid Gulf is still there too. I haven't looked at the MSLP around the GOM. If they were trending lower I might be more concerned than I am currently.

[Rgv20]

Taking a quick look on the CFSv2 precipitation anomaly for June it shows above average precipitation for the South West GOM, Western GOM, and BOC. Could be nothing but at least something to keep an eye on as we start the hurricane season.

[RL3AO]

Fascinating TweetStorm from Michael Lowry about the remarkable warming off of Peru.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/846412535897174016




Check out his account for the rest of the Tweets.

[South Texas Storms]

Fascinating TweetStorm from Michael Lowry about the remarkable warming off of Peru.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/statu ... 5897174016

Check out his account for the rest of the Tweets.

Thanks for sharing this! Very interesting indeed. I was actually wondering the same thing. It looks like the latest models are showing this happening this year.

[NDG]

IMO, the chances of another El Nino developing by ASO are very low based on past Super El Ninos that usually took more than 2 years for an El Nino to return.

BTW, the waters over the Gulf of Alaska have really cooled off during the past few weeks, what implications does this have for an El Nino to really get going this year?

[Patrick99]

I don't think I'd worry too much about cool SST anomalies in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic right now - there were strong trade winds and late season fronts in March that roiled the seas up. I took a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean and experienced those trade winds for myself I'd be willing to bet that those recover to at least normal by the time hurricane season starts. In fact, from what I see on the latest anomaly maps, it looks like things have already started to recover from where they were a week ago.