2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Yellow Evan]

Do the MJO and Kelvin waves have any impact on possibly distorting model outputs for the following months' rainfall? the CFS seems like it's backed off significantly in rainfall (and potential tropical activity) in recent runs.

Absolutely. GFS/CFS have a tendency to propagate the MJO too fast.

[RL3AO]

Do the MJO and Kelvin waves have any impact on possibly distorting model outputs for the following months' rainfall? the CFS seems like it's backed off significantly in rainfall (and potential tropical activity) in recent runs.

Absolutely. GFS/CFS have a tendency to propagate the MJO too fast.

And a lot of what my masters and probably PhD. will focus on.

[WeatherEmperor]

Do the MJO and Kelvin waves have any impact on possibly distorting model outputs for the following months' rainfall? the CFS seems like it's backed off significantly in rainfall (and potential tropical activity) in recent runs.

Absolutely. GFS/CFS have a tendency to propagate the MJO too fast.

And a lot of what my masters and probably PhD. will focus on.

Sorry for going off topic but what school are you attending and is the program online or on campus?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[RL3AO]

Sorry for going off topic but what school are you attending and is the program online or on campus?

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

North Carolina State. I just moved from Minnesota to North Carolina a couple weeks ago.

[cycloneye]

@StuOstro
AEWs (African Easterly Waves) coming across the tropical Atlantic in the wake of Bret continue being rather feisty for June..

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/879733057510674432

[gatorcane]

Another monster wave inside Africa - this might be the one the 12Z GFS develops in the long-range (though I am skeptical). Even if these waves don't develop they should be moistening the MDR. The fact the GFS and ECMWF are even hinting at development out this far could signal a very active Cape Verde season come August through September and quite possibly an early start to some activity in July.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/879798977562120192

[tolakram]

TA Instability near to slightly above now.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880051748169240577

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
Vertical wind shear has been below-normal across most of Atlantic Main Development Region over past 30 days, above-normal in E Caribbean.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/880090191163031553

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
Relative SST slightly above-normal over past 30 days - Atlantic Main Development Region SSTs slightly warmer than global tropics.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/880125525578063872

[RL3AO]

@carl_schreck
CFS Forecast looks pretty good for Atlantic TCs in the coming weeks. 850 W'ly anoms suppress trades and 200 E'ly anoms suppress shear

 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/880123562807500804

[cycloneye]

@MichaelRLowry
So far this season, shear has been running a tick below average across the main development region (MDR). Higher than last year but no 2015.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/880138107210936325

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/880148307615637504




Thought this was an interesting tweet from Philippe. Shows the GFS forecast for the position of PV (potential vorticity) streamers to be shifted north and west in the next couple weeks. Just think of PV streamers as "things" that impact the location and intensity of the Atlantic TUTT. A shift to the NW in early July likely leads to less shear in the MDR over the next couple of weeks.

[Kingarabian]

@carl_schreck
CFS Forecast looks pretty good for Atlantic TCs in the coming weeks. 850 W'ly anoms suppress trades and 200 E'ly anoms suppress shear

 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/880123562807500804

Rl3AO, did you read the comments on that tweet?

We're talking about a full out El-Nino + ATL season cancel if that happens.

[RL3AO]

Rl3AO, did you read the comments on that tweet?

We're talking about a full out El-Nino + ATL season cancel if that happens.

I'm aware of the comments in the thread. And like most of the people said, it doesn't seem like a realistic scenario. CFS may have some use out a few weeks. Beyond that I'm skeptical. Then to have the entire tropics switch into a full on strong El Nino pattern out of no where come August? Doesn't make sense.

[Kingarabian]

Rl3AO, did you read the comments on that tweet?

We're talking about a full out El-Nino + ATL season cancel if that happens.

I'm aware of the comments in the thread. And like most of the people said, it doesn't seem like a realistic scenario. CFS may have some use out a few weeks. Beyond that I'm skeptical. Then to have the entire tropics switch into a full on strong El Nino pattern out of no where come August? Doesn't make sense.

Yeah it certainly seems off. Because it's still calling for Nino 3.4 to fall of in July through September. Which would not correlate at all. One thing that would support a WWB would be the negative SOI. But nothing that strong IMO.

[RL3AO]

Yeah it certainly seems off. Because it's still calling for Nino 3.4 to fall of in July through September. Which would not correlate at all. One thing that would support a WWB would be the negative SOI. But nothing that strong IMO.

Everything seemed to be reacting to very above average precipitaiton in the far western Pacific, with enhanced 200mb westerlies through most of the rest of the planet. Like Blake and Schreck said, it doesn't seem realistic to have two straight months of an extremely anomalous pattern during a neutral+ ENSO.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it certainly seems off. Because it's still calling for Nino 3.4 to fall of in July through September. Which would not correlate at all. One thing that would support a WWB would be the negative SOI. But nothing that strong IMO.

Everything seemed to be reacting to very above average precipitaiton in the far western Pacific, with enhanced 200mb westerlies through most of the rest of the planet. Like Blake and Schreck said, it doesn't seem realistic to have two straight months of an extremely anomalous pattern during a neutral+ ENSO.

I want to note that a similar strong WWB in 2014 during January/February occurred despite the planet having cooler background state due to the cold neutral of 2013 and a negative/cold PDO. Although WWB's are more frequent during an El-Nino, I don't think they're completely dependent on it. And I will also like to note that the odds for a WWB will increase in the next month due to the persistent -SOI. But I would be shocked if we see what the CFS is showing, and I completely agree that it does not add up with the other things that the CFS is showing.

[RL3AO]

WWBs are associated with low level westerlies (usually measured at 850mb). These were 200mb westerly anomalies, usually associated with anomalous large scale tropical convection.