2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Steve]

August has been more hostile for development than I thought...

I wouldn't know how to prove it, but it seems that the upper air patterns are a little more fluid than usual with smaller continental air masses transient as they move across the horse latitudes and farther north. It might just be anecdotal, but even across the ocean things seem to not be very static this year overall.

[WeatherHoon]

[CyclonicFury]

Highly doubt September will be as favorable as the CFS is suggesting, but I don't think it will be quite as hostile as Michael Ventrice thinks. After all, it is the PEAK...

[SFLcane]

The basin thus far has been anything but favorable.Upper lows every were you look. Few short lived ugly hurricanes

[cycloneye]

The basin thus far has been anything but favorable.Upper lows every were you look. Few short lived ugly hurricanes

The only favorable for most of the season is and will continue to be BOC.

[gatorcane]

Where did all the shear go?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Where did all the shear go?

King TUTT moved out.

[NDG]

The basin thus far has been anything but favorable.Upper lows every were you look. Few short lived ugly hurricanes

The only favorable for most of the season is and will continue to be BOC.

Hmm, wrong, lol.

Harvey is forecasted to strengthen in the NW GOM not the BOC

[Kingarabian]

The basin thus far has been anything but favorable.Upper lows every were you look. Few short lived ugly hurricanes

The only favorable for most of the season is and will continue to be BOC.

Hmm, wrong, lol.

Harvey is forecasted to strengthen in the NW GOM not the BOC

Harvey will test the favorability in the GOM.

[NDG]

The only favorable for most of the season is and will coninue to be BOC.

Hmm, wrong, lol.

Harvey is forecasted to strengthen in the NW GOM not the BOC

Harvey will test the favorability in the GOM.

I think odds of happening are fairly good, within 72 hrs now.

[WeatherEmperor]

Where did all the shear go?

[i]

It left the moment the tropical waves with development potential go away. The moment we get waves with potential, the shear will magically return


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[AxaltaRacing24]

Where did all the shear go?

[i]

It left the moment the tropical waves with development potential go away. The moment we get waves with potential, the shear will magically return


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Uh Harvey has potential.

[WeatherEmperor]

Where did all the shear go?

[i]

It left the moment the tropical waves with development potential go away. The moment we get waves with potential, the shear will magically return


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Uh Harvey has potential.

The majority of the shear inducing TUTT was over the Atlantic not the GOM where Harvey currently sits.



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[AxaltaRacing24]

It left the moment the tropical waves with development potential go away. The moment we get waves with potential, the shear will magically return


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Uh Harvey has potential.

The majority of the shear inducing TUTT was over the Atlantic not the GOM where Harvey currently sits.



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Ohh. I've gotcha

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/9 ... 7631759360

Ventrice is saying an impressive MJO continues to push into the western hemisphere and the Atlantic is more likely to have hurricanes spin up as a result of this. The map shows lots or orange/red colors but the color legend at the bottom of the graph shows those colors represent the suppressed phase? How can we get more hurricanes if the phase is suppressed? Can somebody explain this please??


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[WeatherHoon]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/900346707631759360

Ventrice is saying an impressive MJO continues to push into the western hemisphere and the Atlantic is more likely to have hurricanes spin up as a result of this. The map shows lots or orange/red colors but the color legend at the bottom of the graph shows those colors represent the suppressed phase? How can we get more hurricanes if the phase is suppressed? Can somebody explain this please??


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Pretty sure he's referring to the current passage of the MJO which could result in a TC formation at the end of the week. Then, the suppressed MJO moves in by the end of next week.

[tolakram]

Trouble is we are getting disturbances in the western basin and they can't find good conditions.

But, it's August 19th, just a few days from when we thought we'd have a few storms. Unexpected, yes, season cancelling ... probably not, but each time this happens the odds of even a normal season go down IMO.

It's August 24th with Harvey now churning in the gulf and conditions looking very favorable. Crazy how quick things can change.

[NDG]

Hurricane Harvey=Will hopefully make people stop comparing 2017 to 2013 once and for all

[Alyono]

Hurricane Harvey=Will hopefully make people stop comparing 2017 to 2013 once and for all

we were on the way to having a storm like this in 2013. Fernand. Started to rapidly intensify but ran into Veracruz. It had found a small area of favorable conditions.

Harvey simply had 2 days more over the water. That extra time made all the difference. Similar conditions, but slightly different positioning.

Not sure where we are on the season to date ACE, but this (like 1970 and 1983) show that maybe ACE is not the best judge of an active season. 2007 had below average ACE, yet it felt very active because many quick spin ups ran into land as cat 1s producing little ACE

[Andrew92]

Hurricane Harvey=Will hopefully make people stop comparing 2017 to 2013 once and for all

we were on the way to having a storm like this in 2013. Fernand. Started to rapidly intensify but ran into Veracruz. It had found a small area of favorable conditions.

Harvey simply had 2 days more over the water. That extra time made all the difference. Similar conditions, but slightly different positioning.

Not sure where we are on the season to date ACE, but this (like 1970 and 1983) show that maybe ACE is not the best judge of an active season. 2007 had below average ACE, yet it felt very active because many quick spin ups ran into land as cat 1s producing little ACE

1985 too. Very average at best ACE, but lots of landfalling storms in the US caused that year to feel very active. Perception is reality.

-Andrew92