2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly

This season already is nothing like 2013

[Hurricaneman]

if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly

This season already is nothing like 2013

You're right as 2013 had nothing above cat 1 while we just had a cat 2 possibly 3 in re analysis with Gert

[CyclonicFury]

if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly

This season already is nothing like 2013

Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.

[Alyono]

if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly

This season already is nothing like 2013

Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.

I'm talking about low ACE in total with a high number of named storms

[Alyono]

there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer

[hd44]

there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer

Too many tutt lows ... saw this back in 2013.

[Steve]

there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer

I think we get 2 minimum and possibly 4 in this burst. We will know in a few days.

[Kingarabian]

there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer

Interesting that they develop just east of the islands and then end up dying in the Caribbean.

[Steve]

there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer

Too many tutt lows ... saw this back in 2013.

It's not necessarily an issue. These aren't El Niño TUTTs that take up such a large portion of the basin. These are hybrids. Some spin off pieces or cutoffs but they split slower than your typical La Niña upper lows. Also, having them migrate west was always a sign of an active year. I don't know how or why as I'm a straight D- student when it comes to fluid dynamics. Bottom line? While it's not inconceivable the end season numbers could be similar to 2013, this season is very different overall, and the SSTA pattern isn't remotely similar. It's not anything close.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/bobtisdale ... pdate/amp/

[tarheelprogrammer]

This season already is nothing like 2013

Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.

I'm talking about low ACE in total with a high number of named storms

ACE is really a better determination of an active season rather than numbers overall. Would you agree?

[Alyono]

Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.

I'm talking about low ACE in total with a high number of named storms

ACE is really a better determination of an active season rather than numbers overall. Would you agree?

yep. Also, ACE per storm can be of use as well

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/898649642413563904

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is strange to see two strong waves in the Atlantic, and one weak TS. Yet, all of them are struggling just to maintain the status quo, in mid/late August. There are some rumblings from a few METs after reading Michael Ventrice's thoughts that September could be quiet, as in very quiet. Very strange given the cold neutral, and SST configuration.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It is strange to see two strong waves in the Atlantic, and one weak TS. Yet, all of them are struggling just to maintain the status quo, in mid/late August. There are some rumblings from a few METs after reading Michael Ventrice's thoughts that September could be quiet, as in very quiet. Very strange given the cold neutral, and SST configuration.

A lot like last year, La Nina like TUTT's and ULL's are parading around. However, if a wave finds an area where the ULL is helping it or is out of the way, then they can ramp up. But it was just bad timing with Harvey and a TUTT that caused it to struggle until the west Caribbean.

[Alyono]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

[tarheelprogrammer]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

Going to need a lot more activity in September and October to reach the numbers goal of many organizations. ACE is about to fall far behind as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

So this begs the same question again from last year: Is the ATL transitioning to the Inactive Cycle again?


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[Alyono]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

Going to need a lot more activity in September and October to reach the numbers goal of many organizations. ACE is about to fall far behind as well.

cannot have 3 very well defined MDR disturbances and only manage 1.5 ACE from that if we're going to come anywhere close to an above normal season

[Alyono]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

So this begs the same question again from last year: Is the ATL transitioning to the Inactive Cycle again?


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I'd argue that perhaps the tropical Atlantic itself is transitioning into an area very hostile for development. Aside from 2015, there has not been an intense cane in the tropical Atlantic since I believe 2010.

Here are the number of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic (as defined as south of 20N east of the Lesser Antilles)

2010: 6
2011: 1
2012: 0
2013: 1
2014: 1
2015: 2
2016: 1

Let's look at the previous 15 years

1995: 6
1996: 4
1997: 1
1998: 3
1999 :4
2000: 4
2001: 0
2002: 0
2003: 2
2004: 4
2005: 2
2006: 1
2007: 2
2008: 2
2009: 2

That's 6 years. Perhaps there has been some short of long term pattern shift that has made the tropical Atlantic a very hostile area for cyclone formation. It would also suggest we should not be watching the tropical Atlantic for long tracked hurricanes. Instead, watch the disturbances there for to see where they move for more in close development

Something happened around 2001. The lack of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic is not a short term thing. It's been going on for nearly 15 years, except for 2004 and 2010.

Perhaps it's time we change our expectations of what the peak of the season will bring. Long tracked hurricanes are VERY unlikely based upon the last 15 years

[CyclonicFury]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

What is causing all the large scale unfavorable conditions? The Atlantic MDR SSTs are the warmest since 2010 and among the warmest on record. There is no El Niño and we are in a La Niña atmosphere. Shear is near average.