2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[cycloneye]

The April ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is not good at all if it pans out.But Pacific looks primed especially the Central area near Hawaii.

[Hurricaneman]

The high pressure bias on the Euro pressure forecasts is something to note though from past years

[Ntxw]

The high pressure bias on the Euro pressure forecasts is something to note though from past years

With the high bias, it' can give you a sense of the direction pressures are going. If you look at 2013 the lesser hot colors gave you a hint. You just have to correct the bias accordingly, the area it is worse at is the higher latitudes, while it's not too bad in the deep tropics.

What it does show is pressures aren't crazy high in the gulf and southwestern Carib

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/853304078448898052

[TheStormExpert]

I understand the map on the right, but what is the one on the left showing again?

[NDG]

:uarrow: I understand the map on the right, but what is the one on the left showing again?

Weak trade winds across the MDR and Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/853304078448898052

Bermuda/Azores high would be weaker than norm based on the map??

[TheStormExpert]

It could get pushed further west and there would be a huge weakness in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

MDR cooling again. Euro also really beginning to show higher than normal pressures in that region for the next 10 days. In contrast, GFS continues to show lower than normal pressures.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting tweet from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

My question is, is this a positive or negative going into the Atlantic Hurricane season.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/854344495542001664

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting tweet from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

My question is, is this a positive or negative going into the Atlantic Hurricane season.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/854344495542001664

I guess it varies, it could mean a much more active season. It's hard to tell, and that's IF it stays for the entirety of the season.

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting tweet from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

My question is, is this a positive or negative going into the Atlantic Hurricane season.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/854344495542001664

May need to watch this, could be big problems if this happens and possibly persists into the peak of the season

[gatorcane]

Arlene and now this disturbed area with weak surface low moving up north from the NW Caribbean (in April?) seems this season once to get going early. Arlene not so much an indicator given origins of formation but what about this one (though development changes appear low):

[crownweather]

FWIW, the fantasy range of the GFS model is showing some fun and games in the western Caribbean in about 2 weeks from now. As always, an skeptical about this, but guidance could be telegraphing that development could be possible in the western Caribbean during the first half of May.

Arlene and now this disturbed area with weak surface low moving up north from the NW Caribbean (in April?) seems this season once to get going early. Arlene not so much an indicator given origins of formation but what about this one (though development changes appear low):

[TheStormExpert]

Like I've said in the numbers poll and probably a couple other times in here I believe this season will be a front-loaded season, meaning conditions should be more favorable prior to the peak of the season than when compared to last season as we are coming out of an La Niña although short lived and weak. In fact according to Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan conditions at the moment are quite favorable and supportive for April standards I believe, thankfully it's not the middle of hurricane season or else we'd be in trouble.

I still believe we could very well see one more storm prior to June 1st. Hopefully it doesn't mean much but I have a bad gut feeling about this season and I feel many will be surprised when all is said and done. Just my two cents and I would never wish harm on anyone, just something about this season gives me bad vibes.

[Ntxw]

With the way things are going ENSO wise I think 2003 might be a year we should consider. Warm neutral ENSO and +PDO with not a great (but not terrible either) Atlantic

[weathaguyry]

With the way things are going ENSO wise I think 2003 might be a year we should consider. Warm neutral ENSO and +PDO with not a great (but not terrible either) Atlantic

I think numbers similar to 2003 are possible, but most of the storms were out in the Atlantic, and I think that this year, the bulk of the activity may be closer to home.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection over Africa is just crazy for this time of year and we seem to have a more active than normal ITCZ and that may indicate lower pressures than the Euro is showing as it seems to have a high pressure bias in the Atlantic

[Yellow Evan]

People seem to call for homegrowns every year and never verify. Given the more favorable AMO, a weaker Azores high seems more likely. Regardless, I'm starting to get very bullish on the season, although if the costal nino setup returns, an inactive season is still possible.

[TheStormExpert]

People seem to call for homegrowns every year and never verify. Given the more favorable AMO, a weaker Azores high seems more likely. Regardless, I'm starting to get very bullish on the season, although if the costal nino setup returns, an inactive season is still possible.

Yeah it's been like this for years now where we think it will be a big homegrown/in-close development year and it underperforms in that category.

I also recall many(including I) expecting the GoM to be quite the hotspot last season but failed to occur despite seeing that tropical low that evolved over the Gulf Coast states back in August that would've been a whole different story if it was located several hundred miles south in the GoM.