2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

[JPmia]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

Curious to know what analogs you're referring to.. From the Tropical Tidbits site?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wind Shear seems to be on the increase, and it is plentiful across the Atlantic. It seems to be thanks to TUTTS, Pacific activity, ULLS, and other factors. How bad was it last season at this time? Anyone have an image to compare? I couldn't find one.

[WeatherHoon]

Too lazy to dig, but off the top of my head, I think conditions were practically the same, if not a little worse during July of last year. Also, we went through the entire month without any systems.

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

I am not sure what you are looking at but CFS is forecasting an active MDR.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

I am not sure what you are looking at but CFS is forecasting an active MDR.

I was talking more about the western Atlantic basin.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

So what happened to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico being favorable and active?

[Ntxw]

Wind Shear seems to be on the increase, and it is plentiful across the Atlantic. It seems to be thanks to TUTTS, Pacific activity, ULLS, and other factors. How bad was it last season at this time? Anyone have an image to compare? I couldn't find one.

http://i.imgur.com/V7OOrly.jpg

Last year and this year are two different animals. Global patterns were different. As the La Nina got stronger, conditions across the Atlantic got better and better it was a matter of time before it got going. There was great consensus across the board of an active season at the time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wind Shear seems to be on the increase, and it is plentiful across the Atlantic. It seems to be thanks to TUTTS, Pacific activity, ULLS, and other factors. How bad was it last season at this time? Anyone have an image to compare? I couldn't find one.

http://i.imgur.com/V7OOrly.jpg

Last year and this year are two different animals. Global patterns were different. As the La Nina got stronger, conditions across the Atlantic got better and better it was a matter of time before it got going. There was great consensus across the board of an active season at the time.

I was just curious. It seems like there is more shear than usual across the Caribbean, and MDR. Along with SAL, at least in recent years there.

[TheStormExpert]

Who knows maybe this season will bust in a way similar to 2013. If conditions haven't improved within the next 2-4 weeks then I'll start worrying some.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

Curious to know what analogs you're referring to.. From the Tropical Tidbits site?

Yes.

[CyclonicFury]

Who knows maybe this season will bust in a way similar to 2013. If conditions haven't improved within the next 2-4 weeks then I'll start worrying some.

Maybe it won't be as active as expected but anything close to a true 2013 repeat is highly unlikely. It was the first season since 1968 without a storm exceeding category 1 intensity. Shear seems to be near normal in the Caribbean and below normal in the MDR so what we're seeing out there right now is nothing unusual for the month of July.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_VSHD.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... r_VSHD.gif

[Hammy]

Who knows maybe this season will bust in a way similar to 2013. If conditions haven't improved within the next 2-4 weeks then I'll start worrying some.

2013 had completely unique circumstances (the ocean circulation weakening) and significantly cooler/wetter weather in the Southeast, as well as linear west to east shear and massive dry air in the Atlantic, all as a result. The setup is vastly different this year. I'm not certain enough to call it a quiet or active season this year, but we definitely won't see a 2013 repeat unless we start seeing other indicators go that way.

It seems like there is more shear than usual across the Caribbean, and MDR. Along with SAL, at least in recent years there.

I'm not sure who pointed it out but African dust this year is the lowest since either 2010 or 2005. Conditions tend to worsen during July, so we're pretty much seeing what we'd normally see in July so far--in the last four decades, 60% of seasons had no storms in the first three weeks of July.

The problem this year is that we're essentially in Nino-neutral conditions, so we don't have any strong indicators one way or the other. It could very well end up being an average season in the end.

[Steve]

:uarrow: The rain in the Caribbean has dried up which tells me most of the activity north of there is trough-induced and not tropical activity, and the GoM and Caribbean have also all but dried up as the runs go on.

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

So what happened to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico being favorable and active?

I don't know about the Eastern or Central Caribbean so much, but expect 3-4 named storms in the WC and GoM this season. Also, expect some SE/Mid-Atlantic/NE threats as well. It's mid-July, and other than an odd storm or two or some random KW or super favorable MJO in the interim, we're 6-7 weeks out. What I find the most concerning about this season is the Atlantic High. That's like a conveyor belt we haven't seen in a long, long time. If it stays strong or even weakens a little but pulses, everything in the western side of the basin is aimed at the North American Continent. We could see some scatter-shot storms - like 2 or 3 in succession when things are active - if the high doesn't subside that much. It's actually kind of a scary setup with the sea surface temperatures running mostly above and the pressure patterns. Obviously we have to wait to see what happens.

[chaser1]

..... what he said

[NDG]

Is only mid July, and to tell you the truth a few days ago I didn't think we were going to see an invest pop up in the Atlantic MDR until at least late July. I think the next 4-6 weeks or so we are going to deal with relatively weak short lived systems but with a way more active Atlantic MDR compared to last year, once the SAL calms down like it usually does later in August and September. The Caribbean will stay highly shear until ENSO goes into a more neutral state and the EPAC becomes less active, should happen later in late August or in September.
I think late August into October will be fairly active across the Basin. IMO.

[JPmia]

Yeah, but that's not a new development. The analogs and recent conditions continue to support an active season east of the islands, with a preferred track into the western Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles. The Caribbean and Gulf may not get as much activity (that doesn't mean we won't have some though).

So what happened to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico being favorable and active?

I don't know about the Eastern or Central Caribbean so much, but expect 3-4 named storms in the WC and GoM this season. Also, expect some SE/Mid-Atlantic/NE threats as well. It's mid-July, and other than an odd storm or two or some random KW or super favorable MJO in the interim, we're 6-7 weeks out. What I find the most concerning about this season is the Atlantic High. That's like a conveyor belt we haven't seen in a long, long time. If it stays strong or even weakens a little but pulses, everything in the western side of the basin is aimed at the North American Continent. We could see some scatter-shot storms - like 2 or 3 in succession when things are active - if the high doesn't subside that much. It's actually kind of a scary setup with the sea surface temperatures running mostly above and the pressure patterns. Obviously we have to wait to see what happens.

The analogs that are mentioned (2004, etc) and the high set up could present a straight shot to the western Atlantic with a highly favorable MDR. The year of the Cabo Verde storms? We shall see.

[Steve]

Yeah JP. That's the scary part. Things evolve in the tropics as you know, so what things look like right now aren't necessarily what they will look like later. In 2005 (which isn't that much of an analog thrown around that I've seen), you had reinforcing highs that kept coming down from Canada and moving Eastward off the NC Coast (centered about there anyway) that were a little longer north/south than they were east/west. It just kept reinforcing high pressure in the Atlantic, and as a result, we had a crazy amount of high-impact storms. I think there were 12 or 13 total named storms that affected North America in some fashion (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita in my world). I could be wrong, but I think that's also the last year where the US Coast was hit by a major. Joe Bastardi thinks that trend will end this year and is on record multiple times in saying that he thinks the U.S. Coast will be hit by a major this year. But I haven't seen even him use 2005 as an analog. 2004 may be better. And though some forecasters have sort of ignored Florida as a landfall hotspot, that didn't make any sense to me considering what happened that year with the (at least) 5 Florida landfalls - Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

The (axis of the) ridge that year, at least based on the tracks of many of the western storms, looks like it was narrower N/S than it was E/W and closer to the US Coast than nudging into it as far as 2005's ridging was.

Again, I'm not calling for alarm and saying this is going to be like 2004 or 2005. I have no idea. But if we do have a strong ridge that has a western perimeter-edge near, along or even nosing into the US Coast, it could be a wild one.

[gatorcane]

If this is only mid July what is August and September going to bring?

[Hammy]

Anyone else notice the small LLC west of Cabo Verde on this loop? This whole setup seems more like something out of the WPAC monsoonal troughs than anything that's normally seen in the Atlantic.