2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[tolakram]

Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August. I don't want to end any discussions but I do want to remind people that having no activity in July all the way to late August is a very common occurrence and as far as I can tell no indication whatsoever of future activity.

July has high pressure, July has dust, July generally has very little activity.

I think we need to keep our eyes on the overall conditions and off the models, especially the GFS upper air which has a pretty low skill score past 5 days. As long as the EPAC stays active we can expect the Atlantic, at least the western Atlantic, to have shear and generally be unfavorable for development.

So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?

[Ntxw]

Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August. I don't want to end any discussions but I do want to remind people that having no activity in July all the way to late August is a very common occurrence and as far as I can tell no indication whatsoever of future activity.

July has high pressure, July has dust, July generally has very little activity.

I think we need to keep our eyes on the overall conditions and off the models, especially the GFS upper air which has a pretty low skill score past 5 days. As long as the EPAC stays active we can expect the Atlantic, at least the western Atlantic, to have shear and generally be unfavorable for development.

So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?

Very well said. The Atlantic is the latest starting of the 3 big ones and contends with SAL nothing unusual so far. I think the culprit can be that when people throw around 2005 as an analog every year it becomes a mild sense of not living up when big hurricanes don't show up in July to fit that mold.

[Ntxw]

The few short term negatives that I see at the moment is vertical instability being below normal in the deep tropics but I'm not not sure if that's truly a good predictor or just hindsight data. Carib shear of late is now above normal, but more important even when near or below normal its persistence has been somewhat of a deterrence, normal shear is still shear it needs balance of periods with little to no shear. If that continues in August then that would be a time to look as early signs.

[chaser1]

Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August......
So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?

Very well said. The Atlantic is the latest starting of the 3 big ones and contends with SAL nothing unusual so far. I think the culprit can be that when people throw around 2005 as an analog every year it becomes a mild sense of not living up when big hurricanes don't show up in July to fit that mold.

That, or....................... there's a little NinalConde in many of us

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
Rainfall in western Sahel has generally been above-average over the past month - often a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/888029617054822400

[psyclone]

this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.

[TheStormExpert]

this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.

If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?

[psyclone]

this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.

If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?

Because storms can happen but they usually don't. June, July and November comprise half of hurricane season time but nowhere near half the storms...and certainly not the quality storms (with rare exceptions of course). this brings up an interesting point...people are lousy at thinking in terms of probabilities but that is an essential skill...perhaps that helps explain the popularity of lotteries. think in term of probabilities rather than possibilities..

[tolakram]

Even with the dust check out the mid level water vapor loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5new.html

[Weather150]

this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.

I wouldn't really say those months are "nothing of consequence", even though not a lot of activity happen during those months, you can still get bad storms that bring flooding during those months. Wind is not the only danger.

[Hammy]

If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?

November gets a storm on average once every other year, and June with slightly greater frequency--compare that with December and May, and there's your answer.

[RL3AO]

Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!

It also shows a major trade burst at 3.4 in the Pacific. It may not cool 3.4 but it should put a stop to warming while the burst is occurring.


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[AutoPenalti]

Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!

So to understand this correctly, the blue indicates easterly trade bursts and the yellow and orange indicate westerlies?

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm convinced that we have a (fertile) MDR this year. While I would not bet on nor discount a well developed hurricane prior to August 10th. I would take bets and lay odds on the E storm ( Emily) before August 1st, and definitely bet on at least the F storm by August 10th.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Big changes coming to the global circulation if the CFS is right- goes from a quiet Atlantic tropics week 1 to busy in week 3

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/888162972832542720

[Alyono]

may take until the 3rd week for activity to pick up. often a lag between favorable conditions and tcs

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not good signs for Atlantic development, or an active season I do believe. I could be reading it wrong though.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493729295630336




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493168433528833

[Kingarabian]

I don't know about the MEI right now. It's a head scratcher. ENSO signals are very mixed at this point. Just by looking at the subsurface, if we muster any El Nino out by ASO, it would be a weak one.

[TheStormExpert]

JB, the same guy predicting the major hurricane drought would end this season is also not bullish on an active August at least? I know it only takes one!

In my opinion I'm starting to wonder if this season is being overhyped by many in terms of favorable potential and how active it may really be. Yes there are plenty of positives out there but there are several negatives as well which would in favor suggest that the Pacific (especially East/Central) will be the focus point this year again like it has been for the past 3-4 seasons. You also already have one or two people mentioning how things now might not be favorable for the lid to come off in the Atlantic until the third week in August which suggests to me that we might already be pushing the arrival of favorable conditions in the Atlantic just like what kept happening back in 2013 when those favorable conditions never came to be like many were expecting. Just my thoughts.