2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[tolakram]

In my opinion we are now, finally, getting past the spring barrier so what will actually happen should become clearer over the next month. So many times what we think will happen flips during April.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the Euro ENSO forecast the best analogs seem to be 2002 but 2004 and 1969 are not off the table

[gatorcane]

2004 because of a possible Modoki El Nino. I have not been in the camp of another substantial El Nino this season, still could be a weak El Nino or Modoki which would mean more Altantic activity than I am seeing from some of the agency pre-forecast numbers. If it doesn't look like we will see an El Nino watch the forecast numbers get revised upward accordingly from forecasting agencies. El Nino or no el Nino seems to be the biggest wildcard at the moment.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: 2004 because of a possible Modoki El Nino. I have not been in the camp of another substantial El Nino this season, still could be a weak El Nino or Modoki which would mean more Altantic activity than I am seeing from some of the agency pre-forecast numbers. If it doesn't look like we will see an El Nino watch the forecast numbers get revised upward accordingly from forecasting agencies. El Nino or no el Nino seems to be the biggest wildcard at the moment.

2004 a bad analog. Everything was favorable in the Atlantic that year aside from the Modoki. Not expected to be the case this year

[Hammy]

:uarrow: 2004 because of a possible Modoki El Nino. I have not been in the camp of another substantial El Nino this season, still could be a weak El Nino or Modoki which would mean more Altantic activity than I am seeing from some of the agency pre-forecast numbers. If it doesn't look like we will see an El Nino watch the forecast numbers get revised upward accordingly from forecasting agencies. El Nino or no el Nino seems to be the biggest wildcard at the moment.

2009 was also Modoki and given the Atlantic conditions at the moment seems like a better analog should we get an El Nino of that nature.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: 2004 because of a possible Modoki El Nino. I have not been in the camp of another substantial El Nino this season, still could be a weak El Nino or Modoki which would mean more Altantic activity than I am seeing from some of the agency pre-forecast numbers. If it doesn't look like we will see an El Nino watch the forecast numbers get revised upward accordingly from forecasting agencies. El Nino or no el Nino seems to be the biggest wildcard at the moment.

2009 was also Modoki and given the Atlantic conditions at the moment seems like a better analog should we get an El Nino of that nature.

2009 started off traditional though, and didn't become a Modoki till after hurricane season.

[Hurricaneman]

My top analog is 2002 because it looks like conditions will be similar to that year

Another analog possibility could be 1979

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/852618355974578178

[Kazmit]

My top analog is 2002 because it looks like conditions will be similar to that year

Another analog possibility could be 1979

2002 seems like a decent analog, as it had minimal activity until the peak of the season (this happened last year, and then the season got fairly busy). I do wonder if the peak of activity will be in October or even November. There has been talk about a possible trend of the peak being pushed back later in the season. We shall see.

[TheStormExpert]

My top analog is 2002 because it looks like conditions will be similar to that year

Another analog possibility could be 1979

2002 seems like a decent analog, as it had minimal activity until the peak of the season (this happened last year, and then the season got fairly busy). I do wonder if the peak of activity will be in October or even November. There has been talk about a possible trend of the peak being pushed back later in the season. We shall see.

2002 could be a good analog total activity wise, but overall I feel most of the action could be in the first 3-4 months of the season.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/852362696746037248

[cycloneye]

JB says MDR will cool by hurricane season.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/852859748517105664

[gatorcane]

JB seems to be tweeting a lot of negative/pessimistic tweets about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. How is he so confident about the trades so far out in the future? The Atlantic MDR is noticeably warming. Did the models predict this trend we are seeing?

[weathaguyry]

JB seems to be tweeting a lot of negative/pessimistic tweets about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. How is he so confident about the trades so far out in the future? The Atlantic MDR is noticeably warming. Did the models predict this trend we are seeing?

I 100% agree with this, everyone keeps talking of huge winds that are about to come and El Niño is going to get started right away, but I don't see what they're talking about. It seems as if the opposite is happening.

[crownweather]

Also, the GEFS model guidance continues to forecast weak trade winds for the next 7 to 10 days with an increase in winds across the Caribbean late this month. Should be noted that GEFS model forecasts weak winds at 850 mbs across the Gulf of Mexico and near the SE Coast through about April 25th.

JB seems to be tweeting a lot of negative/pessimistic tweets about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. How is he so confident about the trades so far out in the future? The Atlantic MDR is noticeably warming. Did the models predict this trend we are seeing?

[srainhoutx]

Also, the GEFS model guidance continues to forecast weak trade winds for the next 7 to 10 days with an increase in winds across the Caribbean late this month. Should be noted that GEFS model forecasts weak winds at 850 mbs across the Gulf of Mexico and near the SE Coast through about April 25th.

Had a chance to talk with some reliable and extremely experienced Tropical Weather Specialists that I trust at the National Tropical Weather Conference last weekend. We had some interesting discussions regarding the Western Atlantic Basin and the potential we are seeing in a transitioning Hemispheric Pattern and its potential implications on the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Keep an eye on the monsoonal trough via the guidance in the days ahead as we begin May as well as the Gulf of Tehuantepec for potential cross over disturbances from the Eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche for early season tropical mischief.

[NDG]

[Kingarabian]

JB seems to be tweeting a lot of negative/pessimistic tweets about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. How is he so confident about the trades so far out in the future? The Atlantic MDR is noticeably warming. Did the models predict this trend we are seeing?

[img]//https://s27.postimg.org/q6gc2xw03/anomw.4.13.2017.gif[/img]

His reasoning is that because there's a trough sitting in the North Atlantic/east of Canada, it's causing warming in the MDR since it slows down the easterlies. As soon as the trough lifts out, higher pressures will start build again and in turn cause cooling.

His proof is Australia. Higher pressures there have caused waters to be cooler than normal in that region.

I think another of his reasons is that, higher pressures over Australia, lower pressures south of Hawaii/Tahiti, and higher pressures over the ATL MDR enhance convergence in the Pacific and favor activity there. Which in turn means un-favorable conditions in the Atlantic.

I think his reasoning has a lot to do with what the Euro is predicting and is almost solely based on it and its ensembles.

[vbhoutex]

JB seems to be tweeting a lot of negative/pessimistic tweets about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. How is he so confident about the trades so far out in the future? The Atlantic MDR is noticeably warming. Did the models predict this trend we are seeing?

[img]//https://s27.postimg.org/q6gc2xw03/anomw.4.13.2017.gif[/img]

His reasoning is that because there's a trough sitting in the North Atlantic/east of Canada, it's causing warming in the MDR since it slows down the easterlies. As soon as the trough lifts out, higher pressures will start build again and in turn cause cooling.

His proof is Australia. Higher pressures there have caused waters to be cooler than normal in that region.

I think another of his reasons is that, higher pressures over Australia, lower pressures south of Hawaii/Tahiti, and higher pressures over the ATL MDR enhance convergence in the Pacific and favor activity there. Which in turn means un-favorable conditions in the Atlantic.

I think his reasoning has a lot to do with what the Euro is predicting and is almost solely based on it and its ensembles.

You all follow this closer than I do, but has he addressed the home grown threat at all? Everything I am hearing and/or seeing makes me think the home grown will be the most active this season. I am talking both GOM and ATL close to SE Conus.

[Ntxw]

JB is more bullish on the Nino and it's impacts thus he is more reflective of a typical +ENSO(but not detrimental) forecast by him.