2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[SFLcane]

Ssts are over rated waters always warm come June to support hurricane development. There goes the warm Atlantic many have been talking about

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/839494150403694595

[TheStormExpert]

This has become a broken record for the Atlantic, with the MDR or Tropical Atlantic being hostile and unfavorable throughout the season. This has been an ongoing issue since the 2011 season.

Still too soon to say if the active-era has come to an end with yet another decent El Niño episode in the works just in time for the 2017 season. May not be till around 2020 until we can finally get the answer.

[SouthDadeFish]

SFLcane, the North Atlantic basin is typically much more hostile for TC development from an environmental perspective than the eastern/western North Pacific basins. No surprise there. I think the major wild card in forecasts of the 2017 TC season is when and where a positive ENSO signal will establish itself. I would be surprised if the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific are both quiet throughout the season...

[SouthDadeFish]

take a look at that Atlantic wide map. It does not match the GOM map. GOM SSTs have been well above average, which has lessened the fog season along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf map reflects that. The Atlantic wide map says the Gulf is COOLER than average

I think you were looking at the 7-day change in anomalies. So the Gulf cooled from it's relative anomalous state, but is still much warmer than normal. From what I see, the wide map still reflects an anomalously warm GoM.

[SFLcane]

Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.

Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf

[TheStormExpert]

Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.

Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf

Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.

My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?

[Ntxw]

Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.

Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf

Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.

My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?

The PDO is a reflection, feedback loop of ENSO. The La Nina probably watered it down last season which was why most felt it was good to call for a more active season than the previous 3. The overall +PDO is an effect of the multiple years of El Nino since 2014 and will go negative if/and when more stronger push for a La Nina otherwise it will just hover neutral and warm. If there is another El Nino the PDO will likely spike.

[Alyono]

Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.

Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf

Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.

My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?

And even with the crash, we only had 3 named storms in the last 2 months and a week. Only 1 storm formed in October.

It's just that the three storms were Matthew, Nicole, Otto

[cycloneye]

The public update of the ECMWF MLSP March data for July,August and September is up and is very high pressures with dry air for North Atlantic and lower pressures and high instability for Pacific.

[SFLcane]

ugly luis....

[cycloneye]

ugly luis....

Understandable that reaction.I sense you are not alone expressing about this.

[Alyono]

Mega Hawaii season!

[TheStormExpert]

Mega Hawaii season!

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the next Major Hurricane to hit the U.S. is on the Hawaiian Islands.

Seems after one average to slightly above average season in 2016 we are headed straight back to where we were in the several seasons prior to 2016, busy Pacific/dead Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

ugly luis....

I feel your pain SFLcane! Last season just wasn't enough excitement for one.

[hurricanetrack]

I wonder, is that ECWMF pressure forecast showing what it does because "it presumes" that it will be correct in also developing a significant ENSO warm event? Perhaps one thing has something to do with another, I honestly do not know. Logic would dictate that if the ECWMF ENSO forecast is wrong (we won't know until a few months) then the ECMWF pressure forecast would also be wrong since the two would seemingly be related????

[bg1]

Mega Hawaii season!

How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)

[Alyono]

Mega Hawaii season!

How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)

from that pattern, I'd be more worried about storms forming to the SW and striking the more populated islands

[Kingarabian]

Mega Hawaii season!

How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)

Right?

In what other ways will models show a Hawaii hit and then back off in the last 48 hours? But in all seriousness, these past 3 years have been worrisome if not downright scary for Hawaii residents. Repeatedly having major hurricanes lurking 50 miles off shore of a group of population who are completely unprepared for a hurricane is no joke. Hope the 23 year streak of no hurricanes continues this season.

[Hurricaneman]

The Atlantic MDR has had spike of above normal instability and it does look like a positive Atlantic tripole is setting up according to the NOAA charts so there is a few positives for the 2017 hurricane season, and the fact that it looks like we're heading for an El Nino but the atmosphere is just not cooperating but seems to be in a La Nina state and needs to switch it up for the El Nino not to be a madoki come summer

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/843849397548937216




The 7 day change map shows the cooling but is still March and things can change in the next few months.

First page of thread where daily update of graphics are posted