2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Kingarabian]

Except 2005 was a cold neutral almost weak Nina, in a very favorable decadal period of Atlantic activity. Lets not overplay the analog too much as it is brought up every season. Simply too many mixed signal to have confidence. Nothing really stands out this early in the game yet IMO.

I think people we're too focused on the (ever changing) values at Nino 1+2. The waters in the east are a lot warmer than 2005.

[hurricanetrack]

Aug 20, 2005 - I'd say Nino 1-2 was quite warm at that point. And we all know what happened after Aug 20 that year.



Here is the same global map as of April 24 this year:

[Alyono]

Aug 20, 2005 - I'd say Nino 1-2 was quite warm at that point. And we all know what happened after Aug 20 that year.



Here is the same global map as of April 24 this year:

that may explain why 2005 had a dead MDR (both east and west of the islands) in August

[Alyono]

re 2005, only 4 of the storms developed in the MDR during August and September: Irene, Lee, Maria,and Philippe. Irene and Lee struggled mightily, and Philippe under performed.

The MDR was active in June, July, October, and November, but it was the Caribbean portion those months, except for Emily

[tatertawt24]

I have to say, this might be the most uncertainty I've ever seen for the pre-season forecasts. It's like we end up with a different analog year every day.

[blp]

Hello everyone. Good to be back for the season. CFS is indeed looking quite interesting in regards to the season. I noticed July especially looks quite favorable in the Caribbean and MDR. I have been running it for the past weak and looks like plenty of favorable variables. Let's see if it holds.

MSLP:


Shear:


Precipitation:


Also, the EPAC looks dry and not favorable which should help at least keep the wind shear and sinking air down in the Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

@blp
Do you have any of these maps for the Euro model?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

@blp
Do you have any of these maps for the Euro model?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Also, can you post a 2016 map for comparison?

[Hurricaneman]

Hello everyone. Good to be back for the season. CFS is indeed looking quite interesting in regards to the season. I noticed July especially looks quite favorable in the Caribbean and MDR. I have been running it for the past weak and looks like plenty of favorable variables. Let's see if it holds.

MSLP:


Shear:


Precipitation:


Also, the EPAC looks dry and not favorable which should help at least keep the wind shear and sinking air down in the Caribbean.

I'll say this, I'm not ready to jump on the 2005 analog just yet as it's still quite early but don't be surprised if we get an early season hurricane moving through the Caribbean into the GOM like in 2003

[JtSmarts]

Hello everyone. Good to be back for the season. CFS is indeed looking quite interesting in regards to the season. I noticed July especially looks quite favorable in the Caribbean and MDR. I have been running it for the past weak and looks like plenty of favorable variables. Let's see if it holds.

MSLP:


Shear:


Precipitation:


Also, the EPAC looks dry and not favorable which should help at least keep the wind shear and sinking air down in the Caribbean.

I'll say this, I'm not ready to jump on the 2005 analog just yet as it's still quite early but don't be surprised if we get an early season hurricane moving through the Caribbean into the GOM like in 2003

You are referring to Claudette right? Wow that was the first storm I ever tracked on s2k.

[Hurricaneman]

Yes Claudette is the hurricane I'm referring to and that didn't really get going until it was nearing the Texas coast and I do expect something similar to it this year

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/857349048390516737

[TheStormExpert]

Yes Claudette is the hurricane I'm referring to and that didn't really get going until it was nearing the Texas coast and I do expect something similar to it this year

I agree too, we could very likely see a weak to moderate hurricane in the Western GoM that will eventually make landfall along the Texas coastline breaking the almost 9 year hurricane landfall drought they've had since Ike back in 2008. Best and probably only chance of this occurring would be prior to the peak date September 10th.

Also, I would be VERY shocked just going by the CFS maps above if we see another dead July like last year. I'm starting to think this season could be just as bad(if not worse) than last season. I have bad vibes just thinking about it. Will very likely be increasing my numbers if latest trends continue.

2005 is by no means an analog year in terms of numbers but it very well could be a good analog in terms of where storms develop and track. Just like that year we may not see anything but a few depressions or weak storms in the Tropical Atlantic meaning storms would not get going until north of 20N and west of 60W.

[Ntxw]

I don't agree this season looks better than last year. Having a weak Nina is a good signal to indicate a bigger season that last year was. There is no such signal, it's mixed and what happens likely will be on the toes of what the Atlantic conditions wants to do which is never an easy forecast. It doesn't seem like a shear induced season compared to a big Nino event, but there isn't going to be sinking air over the tropical Pacific to induce more favorable rising air over the Atlantic either in a typical NIna.

[TheStormExpert]

But last season was a Neutral season.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: But last season was a Neutral season.

Was officially a weak NIna. Began JAS and lasted through winter. -0.8C ASO during peak

[blp]

@blp
Do you have any of these maps for the Euro model?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Nothing recent. The new Euro comes out to Public site on May 1st. I am curious to see if it also shows more favorable conditions.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856955194474627072

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/856183566077767681

[Hurricaneman]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/856183566077767681

I hope this changes or there is a possibility of one or more major landfalls this year with that CFSv2 forecast but as always that could change in future outlooks and runs of the model and it's much too early to be certain that this will happen