2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[gatorcane]

Very active wave train at the moment. Count them - five waves from the Eastern MDR east across Africa. Look how far north the wave is on the far eastern side of Africa and it is only June:

[Hammy]

Very active wave train at the moment. Count them - five waves from the Eastern MDR east across Africa. Look how far north the wave is on the far eastern side of Africa and it is only June:

It's been quite some time since I've seen a wave train like this, even in August or September.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm worried about possible hurricane activity in July if things look like this now

[TheStormExpert]

Wasn't the June update for the Euro MSLP for ASO supposed to come out today?

[cycloneye]

Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

Not sure what to make of this,I will note that the pressures are even higher in the Epac of the coast of Mexico then the May update. Same goes for the the Atlantic also.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

So we're looking at another dead MDR and underperforming season? Could this be a sign of a 2013-like setup?

[KAlexPR]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

So we're looking at another dead MDR and underperforming season? Could this be a sign of a 2013-like setup?

The ECMWF predicts above normal pressures for the MDR almost every year. I wouldn't put too much weight on it, imo.

[weathaguyry]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

So we're looking at another dead MDR and underperforming season? Could this be a sign of a 2013-like setup?

Since the Euro usually has a high bias, and the current condition do not support a dead Atlantic, I wouldn't be too sure. There were numerous other factors that caused 2013 to be dead, such as the evident flip to a negative AMO look around this time, with cold water off the Iberian Peninsula and spotty cold anomalies in the MDR, and more warm water in the subtropics.

2017


2013

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

What is the ECMWF long range seeing?

[cycloneye]

For September,October,November.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! What a quick reversal of the Euro's May ASO MSLP map. Either something is wrong with the Euro or the Atlantic and other northern hemisphere basins are about to underperform BIG TIME.

BTW, this is the exact same time of year that the Euro started trending unfavorable in terms of MSLP in at least the Atlantic back in 2013.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yellow and Oranges almost dominate the Atlantic basin for ASO.I dont see blue color almost anywhere in the world. Something may not be right about that?

So we're looking at another dead MDR and underperforming season? Could this be a sign of a 2013-like setup?

Since the Euro usually has a high bias, and the current condition do not support a dead Atlantic, I wouldn't be too sure. There were numerous other factors that caused 2013 to be dead, such as the evident flip to a negative AMO look around this time, with cold water off the Iberian Peninsula and spotty cold anomalies in the MDR, and more warm water in the subtropics.

2017


2013

Take note that the cooler SST's in the mid-latitudes are starting to fill in with warmer SST's. If that fully happens then a 2013 repeat is looking like an almost guaranteed possibility.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm worried about possible hurricane activity in July if things look like this now

If the latest Euro pressure outlook is anything to go by things MAY start becoming less favorable as we head into July.

[Dylan]

Despite the MLSP forecast for the ASO period from the June ECMWF model run, it still shows normal precipitation totals for the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the Pacific is warm ENSO at best, and has a Madoki-type of look if anything. Meanwhile, the model is forecasting above normal SSTA's for the MDR into the Caribbean and Gulf. This set up isn't a hinderance to the Atlantic Basin at all, and reminds me a lot of 2004.

[Bocadude85]

So we're looking at another dead MDR and underperforming season? Could this be a sign of a 2013-like setup?

Since the Euro usually has a high bias, and the current condition do not support a dead Atlantic, I wouldn't be too sure. There were numerous other factors that caused 2013 to be dead, such as the evident flip to a negative AMO look around this time, with cold water off the Iberian Peninsula and spotty cold anomalies in the MDR, and more warm water in the subtropics.

2017


2013

Take note that the cooler SST's in the mid-latitudes are starting to fill in with warmer SST's. If that fully happens then a 2013 repeat is looking like an almost guaranteed possibility.

It's a little extreme to say that a 2013 repeat is almost a guaranteed possibility. I think 2013 is a lot like 2005, might happen once or twice in a lifetime. We can't take every single forecast as face value. There are other models that are calling for a fairly active season. If you take a average of all the forecasts then we come up with a average to slightly above average season.

[USTropics]

If I recall, the JAS forecast for ECMWF MSLP prob was outperformed by the CFS JAS forecast last year. Below is the JAS forecast from ECMWF for last year:

[TheStormExpert]

All I have to say is when you look at the tropics globally they are really underperforming so far this year, this was also the case back in 2013.

At this point it's up to the Atlantic and East Pacific to make up for that deficit which I am now starting to have my doubts will happen after seeing the latest Euro MSLP outlook for ASO. Clearly there is likely something going on that we probably do not know about which is causing the tropics to struggle this year.

[TheStormExpert]

All I have to say is when you look at the tropics globally they are really underperforming so far this year, this was also the case back in 2013.

At this point it's up to the Atlantic and East Pacific to make up for that deficit which I am now starting to have my doubts will happen after seeing the latest Euro MSLP outlook for ASO. Clearly there is likely something going on that we probably do not know about which is causing the tropics to struggle this year.

April 15th Update



May 15th Update



June 15th Update

[Dougiefresh]

If this year is another 2013 the laypeople really arn't going to put much confidence into forecasters. 2013 was a huge bust but what can you do? most of the signs are there for an active hurricane season so you have to call it how you see it.