2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

People seem to call for homegrowns every year and never verify. Given the more favorable AMO, a weaker Azores high seems more likely. Regardless, I'm starting to get very bullish on the season, although if the costal nino setup returns, an inactive season is still possible.

Yeah it's been like this for years now where we think it will be a big homegrown/in-close development year and it underperforms in that category.

I also recall many(including I) expecting the GoM to be quite the hotspot last season but failed to occur despite seeing that tropical low that evolved over the Gulf Coast states back in August that would've been a whole different story if it was located several hundred miles south in the GoM.

Yeap, windshear has not been favorable during most of the season the last few years across the GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

People seem to call for homegrowns every year and never verify. Given the more favorable AMO, a weaker Azores high seems more likely. Regardless, I'm starting to get very bullish on the season, although if the costal nino setup returns, an inactive season is still possible.

Yeah it's been like this for years now where we think it will be a big homegrown/in-close development year and it underperforms in that category.

I also recall many(including I) expecting the GoM to be quite the hotspot last season but failed to occur despite seeing that tropical low that evolved over the Gulf Coast states back in August that would've been a whole different story if it was located several hundred miles south in the GoM.

Yeap, windshear has not been favorable during most of the season the last few years across the GOM.

Do you see that changing this season?

[NDG]

Yeah it's been like this for years now where we think it will be a big homegrown/in-close development year and it underperforms in that category.

I also recall many(including I) expecting the GoM to be quite the hotspot last season but failed to occur despite seeing that tropical low that evolved over the Gulf Coast states back in August that would've been a whole different story if it was located several hundred miles south in the GoM.

Yeap, windshear has not been favorable during most of the season the last few years across the GOM.

Do you see that changing this season?

Too early to tell, will depend where a TUTT or like feature finds a home across the western Atlantic Basin.

[weathaguyry]

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS from Eric Blake.Maybe the Atlantic season is more active than anticipated.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/856183566077767681

[tolakram]

More evidence forecasts are very difficult until we get into May. I wonder if it will continue to swing to more favorable or if this is a false alarm.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm not honestly too surprised, considering what we had were priliminary scans from early-April. The closer we get into May, the more we'll see what appears to be more accurate findings with favorable shear for this season. It's interesting to say the least.

[TheStormExpert]

Well if the latest ENSO values of 0.5 or higher continue over the next several weeks we very well may start to see conditions gradually become unfavorable across the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Well if the latest ENSO values of 0.5 or higher continue over the next several weeks we very well may start to see conditions gradually become unfavorable across the Atlantic.

That 0.5C reading was for 3.4 and we're going to need a couple of months of consistent readings in order for the overall affects to kick in. I would just monitor Nino 1+2 region for now. Generally it has the most influence on the ATL hurricane season.

[weathaguyry]

Well if the latest ENSO values of 0.5 or higher continue over the next several weeks we very well may start to see conditions gradually become unfavorable across the Atlantic.

That 0.5C reading was for 3.4 and we're going to need a couple of months of consistent readings in order for the overall affects to kick in. I would just monitor Nino 1+2 region for now. Generally it has the most influence on the ATL hurricane season.

Well the Nino 1+2 region may become cold soon, because that cold pool is growing and shifting east, so I think Nino 1+2 will get cold, and 3.4 may become warm (modoki setup)

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry wasn't paying attention to which region was warming. But yeah chances of a Modoki El Niño are gradually increasing.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856673625260384262

[Hurricaneman]

If it's an El Niño madoki we could have a season like these years possibly

2002 where not much happened until September but then we got 2 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and hurricane Lili making landfall in eastern Louisiana

1979 where we had David go into Hispaniola as a cat 5 hurricane and take a very similar path to Matthew last year near Florida and also ha Frederic which made landfall in Alabama as a cat 4 hurricane

1969 where we had one of the strongest US landfalls on record with Camille with 175mph winds gusting over 200 and there was another hurricane Greta that made landfall in Maine

2004 the season got off to a slow start but once the last few days of July came the games began first was Hurricane Alex giving hurricane conditions to North Carolina and then came dangerous cat 4 hurricane Charley as it made landfall in port charlotte and exited the state as a hurricane making landfall as a hurricane in South Carolina. Next was slow moving hurricane Frances making landfall in Stuart Florida as a cat 2 hurricane. Next was hurricane Ivan which became a cat 5 3 separate times and mad landfall as an upper end cat 3 near Pensacola. Last but certainly not least was Jeanne which got destroyed by Hispaniola but as it moved away it gained organization and did a loop and at the end of the loop became a hurricane again and heading straight west while intensifying at a good clip making landfall as a cat 3 hurricane in Stuart Florida

[gatorcane]

I can't help but notice that the SST anomaly configuration looks very similar to 2005 across the Atlantic and to a lesser extent the EPAC (though the EPAC is noticeably warmer than 2005). On Atlantic side we see warmer than normal anomalies across the MDR with a cooler than normal anomalies swath across the SW/Western subtropical Atlantic. Not saying we are heading for another hyperactive 2005 or if this means anything for this year's activity but something I noticed:

[WeatherEmperor]

I can't help but notice that the SST anomaly configuration looks very similar to 2005 across the Atlantic and to a lesser extent the EPAC (though the EPAC is noticeably warmer than 2005). On Atlantic side we see warmer than normal anomalies across the MDR with a cooler than normal anomalies swath across the SW/Western subtropical Atlantic. Not saying we are heading for another hyperactive 2005 or if this means anything for this year's activity but something I noticed:

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Interesting sst comparison. If u look at the waters close to the SE coast there is a cool patch. In 2005 I remember many talking about a weaker bermuda high off the SE coast as a result of that cool sst patch. Many storms recurved away from the US but we all know Katrina and Rita formed close and headed west.

I see a similar cool sst patch off the SE coast this year so does that mean a weaker bermuda high again? Does anybody have maps for what the high looks like right now? Is the NAO positive or negative right now?


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[tarheelprogrammer]

I can't help but notice that the SST anomaly configuration looks very similar to 2005 across the Atlantic and to a lesser extent the EPAC (though the EPAC is noticeably warmer than 2005). On Atlantic side we see warmer than normal anomalies across the MDR with a cooler than normal anomalies swath across the SW/Western subtropical Atlantic. Not saying we are heading for another hyperactive 2005 or if this means anything for this year's activity but something I noticed:

I was just about to post the same thing. Very eerie indeed. Hopefully nothing more than differences in data making them seem the same.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856955194474627072

[TheStormExpert]

I can't help but notice that the SST anomaly configuration looks very similar to 2005 across the Atlantic and to a lesser extent the EPAC (though the EPAC is noticeably warmer than 2005). On Atlantic side we see warmer than normal anomalies across the MDR with a cooler than normal anomalies swath across the SW/Western subtropical Atlantic. Not saying we are heading for another hyperactive 2005 or if this means anything for this year's activity but something I noticed:

I was just about to post the same thing. Very eerie indeed. Hopefully nothing more than differences in data making them seem the same.

On top of the SST pattern looking eerily similar to 2005 we also are reusing the list of names used in the 2005 season.

[Hurricaneman]

I hope everyone is on their toes because some real serious analogs are entering stage right like 2005 so I hope nothing like that happens as the GOM would have serious trouble and possibly Florida

[Ntxw]

Except 2005 was a cold neutral almost weak Nina, in a very favorable decadal period of Atlantic activity. Lets not overplay the analog too much as it is brought up every season. Simply too many mixed signal to have confidence. Nothing really stands out this early in the game yet IMO.