2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1601 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:33 am

Witnessing one of those few if not once in a lifetime moments.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1602 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:39 am

We could break the daily ACE record set just yesterday. Katia now forecast to be near major strength at landfall.

Katia, cat 2
Irma, cat 4
Jose, cat 4

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1603 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:51 am

EPAC SST configuration now looks like a moderate to strong la niña. Total bust by the ENSO models earlier in the year that were going for a strong el niño
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1604 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:08 pm

Alyono wrote:EPAC SST configuration now looks like a moderate to strong la niña. Total bust by the ENSO models earlier in the year that were going for a strong el niño


Strongly agree. Visual below.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1605 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:05 am

Unfortunately for FL the threat for land falling hurricanes goes through well into October, with such an active season the threat for another hurricane to affect us here in FL will stay high. IMO.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1606 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:22 am

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1607 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:28 am

According to Wikipedia.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, and the most destructive since 2005.


(Unofficially second-costliest tropical cyclone season on record)
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1608 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:55 am

The truth is, this season IS like 2013 - the 2013 that most of the forecasting agencies called for before the season. I think we will get one more major in Oct/early Nov after Maria in the NW Caribbean.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1609 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:53 pm

This is what happens when the Main Development Region is favorable: Intense and long-track Cape Verde hurricanes. Almost all of the intense tropical cyclone activity in all the other basins occurs equatorialward of the 20s. It's interesting to juxtapose the NAtl activity this season with that of the WPac, where storms are struggling for the most part S of 20ºN. The NAtl is owning the the WPac right now in ACE and intense tropical cyclones, despite the NAtl running a 5 tropical storm deficit to the WPac.

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1610 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:According to Wikipedia.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, and the most destructive since 2005.


(Unofficially second-costliest tropical cyclone season on record)


A record that I'm fearful will fall this year.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1611 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:11 pm

To be fair, pre-season indicators strongly pointed at an active MDR season. So the amount of MDR activity is not a surprise. One of the things that had me concerned was all of the latent heat across the Atlantic from the 2015 record-breaking super el nino and typically the second year after an El Nino is quite active across the Atlantic. Since the primary role of a hurricane is to transport heat out of the tropics, I was expecting an active MDR season. The SST anomaly signature (colder than normal subtropical Atlantic and warmer than normal tropical) that we saw pre-season was a strong indicator that the MDR could pop (though not the only indicator that matters of course). In fact it most closely matched 2005. The other thing we saw was early Cape Verde activity similar to 1933 which was another very active Atlantic season. That further reinforced the idea that this year was going to be active in the MDR.

Looking at the rest of this season, I think we will get another major hurricane in the Caribbean (probably Western Caribbean) in October and possibly more than one hurricane. I suspect Florida may be threatened again in October. Don't forget October is the month South Florida is hit by cyclones than any other month (more than even August and September). There is still a lot of heat build-up and the La Nina base state in the Pacific would allow lower than normal shear across the Caribbean as we head into October and even November.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1612 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:19 pm

The shear has also been very low in the western Caribbean. I'm very worried about what October could bring as we enter October and the atmosphere is looking more La Nina like by the day.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1613 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:45 pm

RL3AO wrote:The shear has also been very low in the western Caribbean. I'm very worried about what October could bring as we enter October at the atmosphere is looking more La Nina like by the day.


Yep, I'm fearful that Halloween WON'T be the scariest thing to occur this October either. Echoing what Gator suggested above, I too think that we'll likely see at least one more major develop this year, and as we move toward that late season climo pattern am concerned that we see at least another Florida/East Gulf threat perhaps in early October. I think we might also see another "mega-cane" develop and eventually bury itself into Central America sometime during late October/November. Most models have slowed down their continuance to crank out more T.C.'s. 'Course, that'll change in a hurry but a breather should would be nice. My 18/11/4 pre-season prediction isn't looking too bad (I think we're presently at 13/7/4) if we go out 5/4/0 from here. From where we stand now though...... i'm beginning to think that we're more likely to exceed that though and perhaps as much as an additional 8/6/2.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1614 Postby HurricaneEric » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:55 pm

Yup. October is that time of year when the Wilma type tracks occur. I agree w/ gatorcane in at least three hurricanes with at least one of them being a major forming in October (and that's on the low end of my prediction). Unfortunately, this kind of track would put a huge target on the areas already effected by Irma in SW FL. :(

Image

I forget which runs specifically, but I saw that the GFS was already spinning something up at the beginning of October in the SW Caribbean. Of course, it is GFS fantasy land, but it makes sense climatically speaking.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1615 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:28 pm

Since 1995, the day the most intense storm peaked:

1995 - October 4
1996 - August 25
1997 - September 9
1998 - October 26
1999 - September 13
2000 - October 1
2001 - November 3
2002 - September 22
2003 - September 11
2004 - September 12
2005 - October 19
2006 - September 14
2007 - August 21
2008 - September 4
2009 - August 21
2010 - September 15
2011 - October 2
2012 - October 29
2013 - September 11
2014 - October 16
2015 - October 2
2016 - October 4

Notice there is a late bias compared to the peak of the season. Only three times has the most intense storm of the season been in August, while September and October are almost equally likely.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1616 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:38 pm

Satellite era record for most category 5 days in a single month is 5.5 in WPac October 1997 (Ivan and Joan). NAtl September 2017 is now at 4.5 as of 00Z. Running 31 day record for the satellite era is probably safe though unless we get something ridiculous in early October. Record is 7.75 days from October 17 to November 17 1997 in the WPac (Ivan, Joan, and Keith).
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1617 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:52 pm

Current SST's. Yes the Western Caribbean has the WARMEST SST's at the moment which is usually the case as we head into and throughout October. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential too is sky high!

Image

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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1618 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:01 pm

In fact comparing this seasons TCHP to last year at this time and 2005 just before Wilma went into the Western Caribbean this years TCHP is the highest. 2005's TCHP looks quite pathetic on October 16th due to all the storms that continuously tracked through that area throughout the season.

TCHP on September 9th, 2017
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TCHP on September 9th, 2016
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TCHP on October 16th, 2005
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1619 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:03 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:In fact comparing this seasons TCHP to last year at this time and 2005 just before Wilma went into the Western Caribbean this years TCHP is the highest. 2005's TCHP looks quite pathetic on October 16th due to all the storms that continuously tracked through that area throughout the season.


Yeah. The Western Caribbean has pretty much been untapped this season. Everything developed too far east to track into W. Caribbean with the exception of ex-Harvey.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

#1620 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:43 pm

RL3AO wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:In fact comparing this seasons TCHP to last year at this time and 2005 just before Wilma went into the Western Caribbean this years TCHP is the highest. 2005's TCHP looks quite pathetic on October 16th due to all the storms that continuously tracked through that area throughout the season.


Yeah. The Western Caribbean has pretty much been untapped this season. Everything developed too far east to track into W. Caribbean with the exception of ex-Harvey.

That's my big worry with those profiles, a monster hurricane in October in the western Caribbean
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